410
FXUS61 KBTV 271709
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1209 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A breezy and cool Thanksgiving Day is expected with lake effect
showers across parts of northern New York. Activity will transition
towards northwestern slopes on Friday with a trend towards calmer,
but cooler conditions again this weekend. Mostly dry weather
prevails Saturday before the next storm system arrives on Sunday. An
active weather pattern is likely to unfold to begin December.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 122 AM EST Thursday...**Winter Headlines are in effect through
7 PM Friday for Lake Effect Snow**

Broken pieces of lake effect are lifting northeast as the occluded
boundary that managed to produce a little thunder in far northern
New York has exited. Guidance is fairly consistent on lake effect
struggling to sharpen up until about sunrise, as colder temperatures
aloft settle in after a vort crosses northeast about noontime.
Unidirectional flow with winds aloft around 40-50 knots will
efficiently transport lake moisture with a modest deformation axis
setting up with winds around 230-250 degrees. There continues to be
some disagreement with how well this band holds up. Some still break
it up briefly this afternoon before reconsolidating this evening,
and this continues to result in a large range of snowfall amounts.
Overall, NBM probabilities have increased with the event fully
within the range of CAMs. The waffling nature of the lake effect and
marginal surface temperatures through this afternoon will limit
broader accumulations until later in the day. Nevertheless, there
could be some intervals of 1"+/hr snowfall rates that could result
in some accumulations despite temperatures in the mid 30s. By Friday
morning, the upper trough axis will shift east, and this will shift
the lake effect band south. However, we will likely see some upslope
snow showers and then some convective activity beneath the coolest
temperatures aloft within the trough axis. The changeable conditions
and periods of poor visibility with blowing or drifting snow will
present the greatest hazards to any holiday travelers.

Conditions across Vermont will be relatively quiet. Overall,
temperatures aloft have trended warmer, and this will result in
greater stability, which decreases the potential for any convective
showers. The exception will be far northern Vermont where a lake
effect shower could break off and track east. Then, when the trough
passes through, then Vermont`s shower chances will more appreciably
increase from scattered showers associated with the trough as well
as any lake effect.

Today still appears rather breezy. Northern New York is still on
track for 25 to 35 mph gusts, locally up to 45 mph on northern
slopes, like Malone. Vermont won`t be quite as gusty with max gusts
up to 20 to 30 mph. It`ll be cooler beneath the influence of the
upper trough with temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to lower
40s, with cooler weather favored over northern New York. Friday will
be colder still as west-northwest flow begins to bring in colder
temperatures. It`ll still be breezy. So the upper 20s to upper 30s
for highs will certainly chilly.

Between the lake effect and upslope snow activity, areas outside
southern St. Lawrence County and the Adirondacks will receive a
dusting up to 2", locally higher in the Northeast Kingdom up to 4".
Within our headlines, values will range about 1-3" on the north side
of the lake effect band, 4-11" in the lake effect band with highest
values favored near and just south of Star Lake, and 3-8" for our
higher summits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 122 AM EST Thursday...Saturday will be colder still with
morning temperatures starting in the teens to upper 20s. Expect a
chilly day in the mid 20s to mid 30s. However, winds will continue
to slowly decrease. It`ll still be breezy with 10 to 15 mph winds
and a few gusts to 25 mph. A few orographic showers will wrap up in
the morning before weather trends quiet by afternoon. All-in-all,
not a bad weather day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 122 AM EST Thursday...Surface low pressure centered over the
Great Lakes will approach the region, bringing the next chances for
precipitation after a relatively quiet start to the weekend.
Southerly flow ahead of this system will allow for temperatures to
climb into the mid 30s to low 40s during the day on Sunday. These
milder temperatures will support primarily rain within the valley,
while mountain locations may be marginally cool enough to see some
wet flakes. Winds may be a bit breezy at times, with gusts of 25 mph
possible, especially within the Champlain Valley due to channeling.
This system will be rather quick-moving which will limit the overall
precipitation amounts, although the best chances for precipitation
will be Sunday night.

Precipitation will become more terrain focused towards Monday
morning, with showers gradually tapering off throughout the day as a
brief period of high pressure builds in. Overnight lows will fall
into the teens across much of the area, with single digits in cold
hallows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Temperatures will
remain on the cold side through the first half of next week,
additional chances for widespread precipitation towards the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Aviation challenge will be timing lake
effect snow showers at SLK and associated IFR/LIFR conditions,
followed by gusty winds through tonight at all sites. Current
radar shows broken band of lake effect snow showers with periods
of IFR vis just north of SLK, while rest of our sites are
experiencing VFR conditions. This band should drop back south
and impact SLK between 20z-03z this evening with periods of LIFR
conditions in moderate to locally heavy snow shower activity.
Have placed several tempo groups to cover this probability thru
the evening hours. Otherwise, rest of our taf sites should see
mostly VFR cigs/vis with some 30 to 40% prob of MVFR cigs/vis at
MSS/EFK thru the evening hours. Gusty southwest winds of 15 to
30 knots prevail this aftn, slowly becoming 10 to 20 knots
overnight. Areas of turbulence and wind shear are likely,
especially acrs the higher trrn with some trrn peaks obscured
in the dacks expected. Additional snow showers with intervals of
IFR conditions are likely at SLK on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHSN, Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: MVFR. Chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
A period of gusty winds is expected over Lake Champlain due to
channeled flow. The strongest winds will be early this morning
before tapering off this afternoon with speeds of 15 to 25 knots and
gusts up to 30 knots focused over the broad waters. Waves could
quickly build towards 2 to 4 feet, with values locally up
to 5 feet over the broad waters.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at Colchester Reef will likely leave it
inoperable for an extended period of time. Use extra caution
when navigating the broad waters, and please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ030-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV