015
FXUS61 KBTV 272319
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring a few snow showers tonight but any
accumulations will be minor. Heading into the weekend, a low
pressure will bring widespread precipitation, with a variety of
precipitation types. There will a period of snow, with the heaviest
totals in northern areas, while most areas will see some freezing
rain. The precipitation will mostly transition to rain on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Thursday...Crntly very dry air in place with
dwpts in the single digits and lower teens, while rh values are
in the 20 to 30% range. As s/w energy approaches per water vapor
imagery, expect scattered rain/snow showers to develop acrs
northern Dacks and spread into the mtns of central/northern VT
toward early Friday morning. Best chance of a light snow
accumulation wl be over the higher trrn where moisture is a bit
better. Otherwise, thinking precip might have difficulties
reaching the ground acrs the deeper valleys, given the very dry
llvls. Did make some minor tweaks to pops and snow/rain shower
timing based on this thinking, otherwise fcst in good shape.

Previous discussion below:
Snow showers develop this evening as a shortwave passes through
the region. While a few of them could be locally heavy, no
significant accumulations are expected. Dry low- levels will
likley cause some of them to fall as virga and surface
temperatures will be above freezing in some areas and cause them
to melt when they reach the ground. However, the areas that see
the heavier showers could see a coating to possibly an inch.
Ridging briefly builds in for tomorrow and the day will be
mostly dry. Most of the clouds should be high so there will
likely be some sun breaking through them.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 354 PM EDT Thursday...A sharp front will be situated across the
area Friday night and a low will pass along it into the day on
Saturday, behaving somewhat like a moisture-rich clipper. On the
front end, there will be a period of snow that will begin Friday
night. Wet bulbing will cause temperatures to fall quickly despite
highs well above freezing on Friday, and the precipitation should
begin as snow in most places. As the low moves through, warming
temperatures aloft will cause a gradual transition to sleet/ice then
to rain from southwest to northeast, but it looks like the warm air
may never make it all the way into parts of the Northeast Kingdom,
and it may remain all snow there. However, the heavier precipitation
will be confined to a relatively narrow band, so there will not be
widespread high snow totals. A northwest to southeast swath looks to
see several inches of snow, and the highest amount will depend on if
this band is stationary or moves slightly to the northeast. Right
now, the highest totals look to be across parts of northern Vermont,
where 3- 7 inches are expected. There will likely be a few locally
higher totals. There is still high model uncertainty where this band
will set up and how far north the ice/rain makes it. The most
freezing rain during this period will also be along a relatively
narrow zone, just southwest of the area with the highest snow
totals.

Behind this initial low, surface cold air advection late Saturday
and Saturday night will drop temperatures below freezing in most
places. Despite this, temperatures aloft should hold steady or
increase, and this looks to change any lingering precipitation back
to freezing rain, though snow showers could linger in the Northeast
Kingdom. There will likely be a dry period for many areas Saturday
night, particularly in northern areas. However, with saturated lower
levels of the atmosphere below the snow growth zone, there could be
some areas of freezing drizzle where there is no steady
precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 354 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday morning a quasi-stationary front
will be to our south with an inverted trough sitting along the
western slopes of the Adirondacks. This pattern should result in
potentially substantial freezing rain in the northern St. Lawrence
Valley with their typical northeasterly low level flow, and in
eastern Vermont associated with cold air damming, while plain rain
mainly falls elsewhere.

Sunday will be a transition into a warmer period as southwesterly
flow aloft gradually lowers. Until it gets down to the surface,
stubborn cold air near the ground will promote chances of freezing
rain, especially in the aforementioned areas. Thankfully
precipitation amounts during this period do not look all that heavy,
averaging about 0.2" to 0.4" of an inch. This may translate to about
0.1 to 0.25" of additional freezing rain where temperatures remain
sub-freezing. During this timeframe due to solar heating, expect
most of the impacts may be limited to elevated surfaces with limited
travel issues, especially into the afternoon. Compared to the
previous forecast, chances of precipitation in southern areas have
trended downward a bit, likely due to better agreement in guidance
in precipitation shifting northward with time.

Massive fluctuations in temperature then are in the offing for
Monday. As low level winds turn more southwesterly and increase in
magnitude, finally stubborn shallow cold air will mix out and
temperatures will climb substantially areawide. The big warm up,
with warm and humid conditions where temperatures in the valleys
rise well into the 50s and possibly top 60, with dew points into the
lower 50s, will be especially likely in Vermont`s lower valleys in
south central Vermont. Sharply colder air will push in from the west
during the day, although uncertainty in timing will ultimately
control highly uncertain temperatures, particularly in
western/northwestern areas of the region where the deterministic
forecast in some cases is much cooler than what much of the model
guidance is showing at this time.

Sharp rises in area waterways will result from a mix of snowmelt and
moderate rainfall. At this time, mainstem rivers are unlikely to
flood and even ensemble forecasts show low probabilities of reaching
action stage, but we will monitor trends closely. Relatively heavy
winter precipitation early this weekend will contribute to the
snowmelt, which leads to large variations in modeled contributions
to runoff Monday into Tuesday.

Temperatures midweek will be near to below normal with dry
conditions expected. Moving into Thursday another dynamic, stronger
variety system will begin to impact the area. The consensus storm
track and precipitation type would be a snow to rain scenario for
all elevations, although at this time the duration of any snow for a
given location is too uncertain to provide any details.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period although a round of snow showers will
push from west to east across the region between 00Z and 08Z. We
could see brief reductions in visibility to 3-4 miles in these
snow showers but enough dry air remains present that to
preclude any IFR visibilities or MVFR ceilings. A frontal
boundary will allow for light and variable winds to shift to the
west/northwest by daybreak with occasional gusts up to 25 knots
overnight. Winds will lessen through the day on Friday with
winds generally 10 knots or less. Some modest wind shear will
also be seen overnight with a 40 knot jet at 2000 ft but will
weaken and shift out of the area by 9Z.

Outlook...

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN, Definite
FZRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Chance FZRA, Chance SN, Chance PL.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
FZRA, Likely RA, Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Sunday
     for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Sunday
     for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Taber
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Clay