069
FXUS61 KBTV 241828
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
228 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will become more widespread this evening along
a slow moving front, with localized strong thunderstorms
possible, especially in the Adirondacks. Lingering shower and
thunderstorm chances will be mainly in northeastern Vermont on
Monday as cooler and drier air returns. Another cold front will
swing through on Thursday with chances of showers but mainly
reinforce a dry weather pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 228 PM EDT Sunday...Isolated showers, some of which will
briefly be capable of lightning, will trend organized through
the early evening before weakening. The Storm Prediction Center
maintains a marginal (1 out of 5) risk of an isolated severe
thunderstorm within the Adirondack region from late this
afternoon through early evening, with a chance of localized
damaging wind and/or hail approaching 1" diameter. Convection
Allowing Model (CAM) guidance has been a little underdone on
convection across western/central New York early this afternoon,
giving credence to the idea of possibly the more robust line of
thunderstorms occurring with cells growing upscale/linear with
time. Most of this activity may stay just south of the region,
but that would be the best chance of both heavier rainfall and
severe weather. Otherwise, broadly increasing diurnally-driven
instability from the Adirondacks eastward into Vermont should
support scattered showers and a chance of thunder late this
afternoon into the evening before diminishing. Again, a lot of
the higher PoPs are driven by the expected line of thunderstorms
materializing in northern New York, so there is still some
uncertainty. Generally the front that is approaching from the
west is expected to be quasi-stationary/very slow moving such
that forward progress of this line of showers may be limited.
The precipitation forecast, relatedly, may trend a little
lighter in central/eastern Vermont relative to the deterministic
(specific amount) forecast as the picture of the convection
becomes more clear.

Locally gusty winds in the eastern Champlain Valley, which have been
as high as the 30 to 35 MPH range, today will persist through
around midnight, then sharply diminish as low level flow turns
more westerly and weakens as the surface front moves into the
vicinity. Less impactful weather is expected for tomorrow as
there has become good consensus on limited instability in our
region with the cold front sliding through Vermont during the
morning hours. Hence, HREF- calibrated probabilities of thunder
are mainly low, peaking at 40% in far northeastern Vermont, and
limited to eastern portions of the state and largely noon to 2
PM. The main weather story will probably be a return to drier
air as westerly flow picks up, so dew points will fall back into
the "comfortable" category after a moderately humid period.
Temperatures should be seasonably warm ranging from the mid 70s
to low 80s in the valleys and upper 60s to low 70s in mid-
slopes/higher elevation towns. The drier air mass, along with
diminishing winds, will lead to a cooler, seasonable night as
temperatures tomorrow night dip into the low 40s to low 50s for
most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 159 PM EDT Sunday...The forecast for Tuesday has
unfortunately trended drier as low level air will be dry with
all of the upper level forcing either well north of the area or
passing to our southwest. Have kept with the National Blend of
Models for PoPs at this point, as diurnally driven pop up
showers can`t be ruled out, but any appreciable rainfall looks
unlikely. Main focus for this period will be related to the
dryness, as large scale pattern is favorable for deep mixing and
sharply lowering dew points during the day. Relative humidity
will probably drop into the 30-40% range, generally lowest in
the western Champlain Valley given modest downsloping. Top of
the mixed layer winds will tend to be strongest early in the day
and stronger farther east in eastern New England, so magnitude
of wind gusts don`t look overly strong - expect mainly peaking
near 25 MPH. High temperatures should be below normal with the
cooler air mass settling in, ranging from the mid 60s to mid
70s. Similarly, lows Tuesday night will be chillier than the
previous night, although not cold enough to have frost concerns
even in notorious cold spot Lake Clear/Adirondack Regional
Airport.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 159 PM EDT Sunday...Upper level troughing and broad cyclonic
flow will continue to produce increased cloud cover, northwesterly
flow, and cooler conditions across the forecast area for the latter
half of the week. Highs are likely to not reach above the upper 60s
and 70s and lows could fall as low as the upper 30s and 40s. Most
likely time for precipitation will be Thursday through Friday as a
cold front looks to move through the region with chances 20-40%
during this period. This cold front may also make Thursday somewhat
breezy out of the west/southwest. Following the cold front, ridging
and high pressure are anticipated with temperatures remaining
slightly below seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tomorrow as a
frontal boundary crosses the region. Winds will remain gusty
15-30 knots from the south through about 22Z Sunday - 00Z
Monday, then begin to decrease below 10 knots, continuing out of
the south/southwest except at RUT where the southeasterly
drainage wind should prevail. While conditions should remain
primarily VFR over the next 12 hours, brief reductions in
visibility are anticipated as showers and thunderstorms pass
over terminals. Stronger showers and thunderstorms may even
produce gusty winds. After 06Z Monday, ceilings will gradually
lower as surface moisture increases, mostly to MVFR levels,
though some models are suggesting that IFR vis and cig could
develop at SLK and MPV around 08Z-14Z Monday as winds decrease.
Confidence is low for this solution at the moment, but it is
something we`ll continue to monitor into the evening.


Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm