812
FXUS61 KBTV 101132
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
632 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively quiet weather is expected today with warmer temperatures
and light winds. Light snow returns for Saturday. Temperatures will
warm into the new week, and then another weather system will
approach Monday into Tuesday with additional snow showers. Colder
air will return behind this system with lingering snow showers
possible across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 621 AM EST Friday...Snow showers still remain stubbornly
in tact in parts of Vermont and the Adirondacks despite
continued drying. Deep layer ridging will arrive today, and will
eventually bring snow showers to an end. This afternoon will be
pleasant with partial clearing and highs in the 20s to lower
30s in the lower Connecticut Valley. It`s nice to see wind gusts
less than 10 mph for much of the evening into Saturday morning.
Overnight lows will mainly be in the 10s tonight with high
clouds shifting northeast ahead of a broad surface low moving
east from the Great Lakes. This will help generate light snow
activity broad, but weak forcing for ascent. Generally 1-2" is
expected with temperatures in the 20s Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 302 AM EST Friday...Some lingering snow showers are favored
Saturday night in strongly blocked flow with low level moisture in
the western slopes of the Northeast Highlands, Greens, and
Adirondacks. Cloud temperatures and lift look marginal for
appreciable snow, but moisture should be available. This activity
looks to taper off overnight with up to an inch of additional snow
at best. The remainder of the period then will be dry with ridging
building in. Through the day on Sunday, surface high pressure will
pass by to our south.

Initially as low pressure over the western Atlantic intensifies
departs to the east, there will be a moderate northwest wind in
response to the pressure gradient over our area, and these winds
should keep temperatures elevated a bit early Sunday. Therefore low
temperatures should largely be cold but not frigid, mainly in the
teens. The pressure gradient will relax towards daybreak and light
winds can be expected on Sunday, aside from mountain summits where
modest winds in the 15 to 20 MPH range are forecast. For habitable
locations, some breezier spots may be across the corridor of
northern Franklin and western Clinton counties that gets a terrain
boost in west-southwest flow, and east of the Greens in the Upper
Valley with some modest downsloping northwest flow. The breezes
would materialize especially if a sharp low level inversion exists
below summit level, as depicted by NAM12 model guidance. With skies
trending mostly sunny, light winds, and 925 millibar temperatures
near -8 Celsius, some superadiabatic lapse rates could be obtained
resulting in highs in lower valleys reaching 30. Highs generally
look to range from the mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 302 AM EST Friday...The large scale weather pattern is looking
well defined through Tuesday with minimal spread in model guidance
for the steering features. There will be increasing chances for
periodic snow showers but no widespread snow early next week. A
clipper system, which initially will dive southeastward into the
Midwest at the end of the week, will be steered northeastward across
the Great Lakes on Sunday ahead of a polar upper level low
pinwheeling southward into Minnesota. As a result, the clipper will
track to our northwest on Monday and pass by on Tuesday, and the
rule of thumb we have here is an inch or less here in the Champlain
Valley. That being said, the low level westerly flow that is
unfavorable for low level convergence here is good for lake-effect
snowfall off of Lake Ontario in the typical snow belt in northern
New York and possibly into the northern Greens when low level winds
are sufficient strong and unidirectional. Chances of snow showers
with relatively heavy snowfall rates due to some shallow instability
and deepening low level moisture probably will ramp up during the
later part of Monday, particularly in the western Adirondacks with
upslope enhancement of lake-effect snow. The flow pattern suggests
this snow shower activity will progress across the northern Greens,
but a greater westerly component to the wind could favor the
southern portions of the Greens. Generally, Monday night through
Tuesday night looks favorable for localized heavy snow in
southeastern St. Lawrence County into southern Franklin County in
New York if the ingredients line up, with lesser snow amounts
farther east.

Overall temperatures look to stay near normal through Tuesday,
peaking on Monday when there is southerly low level flow, then trend
a bit below normal for Wednesday and Thursday. That being said,
highs Tuesday through Thursday are moderately uncertain. On Thursday
in particular the spread of high temperatures amongst model guidance
across the St. Lawrence Valley, and to a lesser degree far northern
Vermont and New York, is rather high. This uncertainty is probably
due to differences in speed of the upper level low that is expected
to cross the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall, Wednesday
looks like an upslope snow shower day in northwesterly flow as
surface low pressure deepens to our east. If this low zips by well
to our east on Thursday, the next shortwave trough will approach
from the west and in response some warming will occur, especially in
western areas. Otherwise, it will stay rather cold and dry on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Conditions are mainly MVFR due to
ceilings around 1500-2800 ft agl. At KEFK and KSLK, persistent
snow has maintained 1-3SM visibility, and could do so for the
next 2-3 hours. West to northwest winds remain 4 to 10 knots.
Beyond 12z, ceilings should begin to improve as well and could
even clear out in a few spots like KRUT and KMSS. Beyond 00z,
high clouds will overspread the region as the next system will
approach beyond 06z Saturday. Winds will become variable or
terrain driven, and then quickly switch to the southeast or
south as it does so. The first flakes should begin to fall
around 09z-12z, but most visibility and ceiling impacts will
likely come beyond 12z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Definite
SN, Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Haynes