263
FXUS61 KBTV 011059
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
659 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the North Country today with dry
weather until late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Seasonbly
cool temperatures today but warming through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 654 AM EDT Monday...Upper trof continues to push through
with drier air working its way in with some partial clearing and
winds have already begun to freshen up. These trends will
continue through the day. No changes to current fcst.


Previous discussion...Cold front has passed just SE of our area
with surface high slowly nudging into the area for the rest of this
forecast period. Upper trof axis and shortwave is still located
across NY as evidence by the clouds and a few remaining sprinkles.
As this trof axis moves through the area this morning through
midday, we`ll see drier air with decreasing clouds for the remainder
of the day. Temperatures will be in the 70s with drier dewpoints
from a NNW which will be somewhat gusty as we mix this afternoon.

High pressure building tonight for mainly clear skies, light winds,
drier dewpoints and cooler with lows in the 40s/50s. Recent rainfall
with these radiational conditions should allow for patchy fog in
climate favored locations.

On Tuesday...High pressure is cresting across the region with the
upper level ridge axis approaching NY by evening. Mainly sunny skies
with some high thin clouds moving across NY during the afternoon and
possibly filtering into the Champlain Valley by sunset. Temperatures
already moderating back to seasonable levels with highs in the U70s-
L80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 AM EDT Monday...The upper level ridge axis will depart to
our east during this period while surface high pressure becomes
centered to our southeast. This pattern will support moderate
southerly winds with increasing humidity, and eventually a chance of
showers as a weakening trough slides through our region Wednesday
night. Have kept PoPs nil through midday Wednesday as there will be
a plethora of dry air through at least the lowest 9000 feet of the
atmosphere. So even as the air temperature at the surface rises
through the 80s during the day, humidity will remain moderately low
ahead the aforementioned trough. There is some uncertainty as to how
strong the upper level forcing for lift will be, and without much
surface convergence that will help determine how widespread showers
will be. Generally looks like towards midnight showers will move
across our region, with greater chances in the western Adirondacks
and points west where a slight chance of thunderstorms is also
indicated. While unlikely given poor lapse rates, this area will see
low levels become relatively warm and moist to suggest a stronger
cell updraft could grow tall enough to produce lightning. Any
showers that move into the area Wednesday night could impact holiday
festivities with brief downpours, especially in northern New York
given the current forecast timing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Monday...The large scale weather pattern will
feature ridges across the west coast of the US along with the
southeastern US, which will steer the most active weather across the
north central part of the country. As such, relatively quiet weather
is expected for Vermont and northern New York. Especially on
Thursday and Friday precipitation chances look very low. However,
one system that will likely lift northeastward through the Great
Lakes region this weekend that will trigger showers and
thunderstorms. At this time coverage of thunderstorms looks on the
isolated side but it looks like showers are hard to rule out
anywhere on Saturday. There will be at least moderate instability,
with seasonably warm and humid conditions are likely along with
probable height falls as the storm system pulls to our north. It is
questionable as to if there will be impactful weather with regards
to either excessive rainfall or severe weather. The ensemble ranges
for precipitable water during this period suggest substantial
uncertainty as to how wet this period will be, as deterministic
guidance currently is towards the extreme end. There`s generally
good model consensus on greater instability on Saturday as compared
to Sunday, although we keep shower and some slight thunderstorm
chances for Sunday afternoon as cyclonic flow continues to support
some precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Primarily VFR with just an in/out of MVFR
at KSLK which will end shortly as clearing skies will occur
across the area. NW Winds 5 to 8 knots and pick up aft 14z to
10+ knots with a few gusts to 16 to 18 knots that subside after
22z Monday. Radiation cooling tonight will allow for SKC and
Calm, light winds with some radiation fog likely due to recent
rainfall so possible local IFR-LIFR at KMPV/KSLK at 06z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...SLW