333
FXUS61 KBTV 032342
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
742 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the North Country through much
of the week, resulting in little or no rainfall. Hazy skies will
continue for the next couple days due to lingering wildfire
smoke. Temperatures will generally be around and above normal
through for most of the week, though there will be limited
humidity and decent cooling overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains centered almost directly overhead
through the start of the work week, continuing a stretch of
mostly dry weather. A cold front passes down into the region on
Monday but it mostly washes out. The remnants of this boundary
remains overhead into Tuesday, and there may be just enough
forcing for a few terrain driven showers on either of these
days. However, they are expected to be isolated in coverage and
probabilities of seeing one should be under 25 percent. Wildfire
smoke looks to remain entrenched over the region through
tomorrow. There will be relatively clean air not far behind the
cold front, but it looks like it may not push far enough south
to clear out the smoke, so it may linger into Tuesday and
possibly beyond. However, if the front can push slightly farther
south than currently modeled the air quality should improve,
especially across northern areas. Temperatures should be close
to seasonable during this period, with highs slightly above
climatological normals and lows around the normals. Humidity
remains relatively low, with dew points expected to be in the
50s and low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Large scale ridging amplifies heading into Wednesday and the
surface high pressure starts to push off to the east, eventually
leading to a warming trend. There still should be just enough
instability and forcing for a couple terrain driven showers, but
they should again be isolated in coverage. Flow continues to be
weak and terrain driven, so there will again be good radiational
cooling Tuesday night. The weak flow will cause any warm air
advection to mostly hold off until after this period. Wednesday
should be another day with seasonably warm highs and relatively
low humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Southerly flow looks to develop on Thursday as surface high
pressure continues to push to the east. However, the wind should
be relatively light and this should limit the advection and
make the warming trend very gradual. Highs will continue to
climb going into the weekend and they look to reach around 10
degrees above normals, with highs in the low 90s in the broad
valleys looking increasingly likely. Humidity will eventually
come up a bit as well, with dew points looking to reach the 60s
in most places. The increased humidity will help end the stretch
of comfortable overnight lows, though temperatures should still
be able to fall well into the 60s in most areas. The next
chance for widespread precipitation does not look to be until
the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours with generally light and variable winds. The
main impact for aviation will remain smoke/haze from Canadian
wildfires well to the west. This will restrict visibilities to
around 6SM at most TAF sites for the next 24 hours. In
addition, some localized valley fog is possible at KSLK and KMPV
overnight, though confidence on this occurring is not very high
at this time given recent dry conditions. Any sites that do see
valley fog formation will quickly improve to VFR conditions
again after 13Z.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Duell