030
FXUS61 KBTV 280627
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
227 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a relatively quiet start to the day, chances for widespread
precipitation will arrive this evening into Friday as a cold
front pushes across the region. Some showers and cooler
conditions will linger into the weekend, with seasonable
temperatures and plentiful sunshine returning for next week as
high pressure builds overhead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 227 AM EDT Thursday...A relatively quiet, yet cool start to to
the day can be expected this morning as brief surface ridging shifts
eastward, ushering warm southerly flow across the region. Increased
winds and gusty conditions can be expected today with the tightening
pressure gradient ahead of a approaching cold front, especially in
Champlain Valley and St. Lawrence Valley where flow will be more
channeled, with gusts up to 30 mph possible. The increased southerly
flow will help usher in warmer temperatures compared to previous
days, with highs in the 70s areawide.

The cold front approaching the region will bring chances for
widespread rainfall to the region, especially across northern New
York where the feature retains the better dynamics and longest
duration of showers. Some embedded thunderstorms will be possible
with these showers, which may help enhance some of the rainfall
amounts during the afternoon. Portions of the St. Lawrence Valley
should see anywhere from a half inch of rain to nearly an inch in
some locations. Showers will gradually shift eastward as the night
progresses, although they might not reach Vermont until early Friday
morning, with showers continuing throughout the day Friday.
Precipitation looks to be lighter across Vermont in comparison to
New York, with the frontal feature weakening as it progresses
eastward, but most locations should still expect to see a beneficial
rain, with amounts ranging from 0.2 to 0.5 inches. Daytime high
temperatures on Friday will be on the cool side, climbing into the
60s to near 70 in some locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 227 AM EDT Thursday...In the wake of the cold front, a large
upper level low will be the dominate weather feature heading into
the weekend, bringing cooler weather and additional chances for
light showers and the region remains under northwesterly flow.
Temperatures Friday night will drop into the 40s to near 50 around
Lake Champlain, with some of the colder spots in the Adirondacks
dropping into the upper 30s. Saturday will feature cooler
temperatures and some light chances for showers, especially in the
favored upslope areas of the Greens, however any precipitation
amounts look to be light. High temperatures will be in the 60s, with
some locations in the higher terrain struggling to climb out of 50s
with abundant cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 227 AM EDT Thursday...No significant changes made to the
extended forecast for the latter half of the weekend into next week
as the synoptic pattern remains largely locked in. Mid/upper level
low pressure slowly exiting northeast of the region will continue to
provide favorable conditions for isolated upslope rain showers
Saturday night on moist northwest flow, with drier air working in
Sunday as surface high pressure builds in. High pressure generally
dominates through mid- week with little chance for precipitation.
Temperatures additionally return to seasonal normals and slightly
above with highs mid 60s to low 80s and lows mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period with low
confidence for fog at any terminal, especially KSLK/KMPV where
mid/upper slope winds should inhibit fog formation. Otherwise, a
slowly approaching cold front will spread mid/high clouds over the
region today, slowly lowering through time, eventually to MVFR/IFR
at KMSS by 00Z, and KSLK by 03Z in light to moderate rain. Winds
will be light and variable overnight with the usual southeast
drainage at KRUT up to 8kts. Then after sunrise, south/southwesterly
winds will increase in earnest, with sustained at 8-12kts and gusts
15-25kts at KBTV/KPBG/KSLK/KMSS, and 6-12kts elsewhere.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Lahiff