562
FXUS61 KBTV 011700
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
100 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another beautiful day is expected today with increasing cloud
cover overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. This front
will bring a brief period of light rain to the region on
Wednesday with total amounts less than a quarter of an inch.
Thereafter, cooler temperatures and drier weather are expected
through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EDT Tuesday...Clouds are increasing slightly, and
temperatures are leveling off this afternoon. No major changes
with this update.

Previous discussion...No big changes for the morning update.
Some fog has formed just following sunrise and will lift in the
next hour or two. Otherwise, we have a pretty quiet day on tap
with increasing clouds late in the day. Maximum temperatures
will reach the upper 60s to upper 70s by this afternoon. Winds
will be gusty out of the south up to about 20 mph. A frontal
boundary will approach our area tonight into Wednesday,
therefore will see continuing increase in clouds overnight, then
chance for showers on Wednesday. As cold front crosses our
area, showers will sort of fall apart with lack of much forcing
along the front. Should have less fog overnight than the past
several nights as we have plentiful clouds ahead of approaching
front. Best chance for measurable precipitation will be in the
St Lawrence valley on Wednesday. Maximum temperatures on Wed
will only range through the 60s. Shower will come to an end late
evening. Rainfall totals will generally be between a few
hundredths to just a couple tenths.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 358 AM EDT Tuesday...The latest probabilistic data supports
very low chances (under 15%) of measurable rain between 8 PM
Wednesday and 2 AM Thursday before becoming just about zero.
Greatest chances are early in the period and in the northern
Champlain Valley. At the same time, rainfall looks very light with
weak lift in the relatively shallow clouds; above about 10,000 feet
abundant dry air will be present. Following the dissipation of the
boundary that triggered the light rain, there will still be plenty
of cloud cover and a bit of southerly flow around to complicate the
forecast. The low level moisture could lead to areas of fog towards
Thursday morning as winds trend light, but coverage may be limited
due to the boundary layer wind. Any morning clouds, assuming lack of
dense fog, should be pretty quick to clear with quickly rising mid
and upper heights. A sunny and seasonably warm day is in store for
Thursday with modest southerly winds continuing. Highs in the upper
60s to mid 70s show very little model spread, consistent with strong
signals for sunny and dry weather. Into Thursday night heights will
continue to rise, accompanied with southwesterly flow aloft and
light south winds at the surface. Therefore, we can expect more
above normal temperatures but also sheltered areas will see a larger
diurnal range and patchy fog develop overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The end of the week looks largely like a continuation of Thursday`s
weather with ridging over the area. However, as it shifts eastward,
south winds will become a bit breezier and some cloud cover will
arrive from the west ahead of a cold front. This front will bring
scattered showers Friday night into Saturday. Small chances of
showers in mainly western portions of northern New York Friday night
will quickly increase and expand eastward overnight. That being
said, rain will tend to be light for several reasons. While the
front does have some upper level support, there will be a lot of
westerly flow aloft that reduces the moisture return and supports
some shadowing due to predominance of north-south mountain ranges in
our region. The thermal gradient also looks fairly weak with this
system; while a cooler air mass will filter in on Saturday, the
advection looks modest. Temperatures on Saturday due to the air mass
change will be closer to normal but as sunshine returns, highs still
should manage to warm through the 60s. Tranquil weather is likely
through midday Sunday.

The forecast then becomes rather uncertain in the Sunday afternoon
to Monday period across the board; rainfall timing, amounts,
temperatures, and winds are all may change significantly from
current indications. Bottom line is there is good agreement on
ingredients for a seasonably strong low pressure system to impact
the Northeast which will lead to greater likelihood of cooler and
cloudier weather. As of 358 AM EDT Tuesday. This wet scenario would
be consistent with the expected long wave pattern that features an
anomalous ridge building on Sunday across the intermountain west,
such that a downstream trough comes through our region. How
amplified this trough becomes will affect the track of the low and
its potential to intensify and/or linger in our region. Of the four
scenarios identified in the WPC cluster analysis technique for this
period, half of them have a relatively deep trough and southerly low
level flow, resulting in wetter conditions on average along with
90th percentile 24 hour rainfall totals mainly in the 1-1.5 inch
range, which seems like a reasonable high end potential at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Clouds are generally sitting about
2,500-5,000 feet AGL this afternoon with southeasterly surface
flow. There have been a few gusts at sites about 15-20 knots,
and this may continue off and on until peak heating is over. Fog
is expected to be much less widespread tonight as a cold front
approaches from the west and steady winds maintain overnight.
Sites MPV and RUT are currently looking like the best shots for
sub-VFR conditions tonight, more likely as stratus than fog
between 07Z and 11Z Wednesday. MSS and SLK are most likely to
have some lowering cloud ceilings towards the morning associated
with the cold front and its precipitation 10Z Wednesday onward.
At this time, visibility limitations at MSS are not anticipated
from rainfall, but as the event gets closer we may have more
details and clarity on this.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Storm
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Neiles