380
FXUS61 KBTV 181104
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
704 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Monday and Tuesday will be dry with quite a fall-like feel,
with highs in the upper 60s to mid and upper 70s. Another round
of mainly light showers expected mid week, but significant
rainfall is not expected over the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...We will have a cool start to the work
week as a ridge of surface high pressure centered over Canada
nudges southward into our area. Maximum temperatures today will
be cool ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. This will also
provide us with a cool overnight as good radiational cooling
conditions sets up and minimum temperatures dip into the mid 30s
in the Adirondacks to around 50 close to Lake Champlain. Will
see some fog develop in the typically fog prone spots. Then on
Tuesday the high pressure will begin to slide eastward and our
temperatures will moderate a bit, maximum temperatures reach the
lower to upper 70s. Will also have an increase in cloud cover
on Tuesday ahead of next approaching system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...A weak upper shortwave will drop down
towards our region Tuesday night within northwest upper level
flow which remains. Some light rain showers will develop Tuesday
night associated with this feature, particularly across
northern NY. Increasing clouds and moisture will serve to keep
Tuesday night warmer than the previous couple of nights though;
lows will be in the 50s to around 60. Another upper level
shortwave passes through progressive upper level flow on
Wednesday, and will bring our next chance of light showers to
the north country. Once again precipitation will be pretty
light, and showers may be scattered. Hopefully most of our area
will see between a quarter inch and half an inch of rain from
Tuesday night through Wednesday night, with better chances for
some precipitation across our northern zones. Parts of southern
Vermont will probably remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...A warm front will lift north across
the North Country on Thursday with a building mid-level ridge
expected to follow shortly thereafter. A period of drier weather
and gradually warming temperatures is expected for Thursday and
Friday. The upcoming weekend is looking rather unsettled as the
aforementioned mid-level ridge begins to slide eastward with a
strong front and upper level trough likely to move through the
region. The latest LREF guidance is starting to cluster around
rainfall moving into the region Saturday evening and continuing
well into Sunday. There will likely be some timing changes in
the coming days, especially as Hurricane Erin moves across the
western Atlantic. Hurricanes, especially strong ones like Erin,
often scramble the longwave pattern and can impact timing and
placement of synoptic scale systems (highs and lows). Quieter
and cooler weather is likely to follow on Monday in the wake of
the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...A few patches of fog may remain through
1230Z but VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
forecast period. The only concern for tonight with be patchy fog
in the favored river valleys as winds go light. However,
increasing high level clouds will limit radiational cooling
tonight and may limit fog formation. For now, we have some
mention of fog from 8Z onward at KSLK and KMPV. Otherwise,
northerly winds of 7 to 12 knots will slowly abate throughout
the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Clay