283
FXUS61 KBTV 190729
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather will remain the theme. On Friday, a backdoor
front will shift southwest. It could produce a handful of light
showers, mainly over Vermont. Weather conditions will become dry
once again heading into next week, but with more seasonable
temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during the day and lower 40s to
lower 50s at night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...A diffuse upper low is just south of the
region, which has brought greater cloud cover slowing fog
formation and slightly impacting radiational cooling. This
upper low will meander back to the southeast where it will
become more organized and result in a more cohesive surface low
well off the Atlantic coastline. So, there`s no real change to
report. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s
once more this afternoon and fall back into the 50s to lower 60s
at night, with a few spot 40s across some of our cool hollows
with just a bit of fog developing in favored locations.

We`re still on track for the backdoor front and a narrow tongue of
moisture to support isolated to locally scattered precipitation
Friday afternoon with marginal 100-250 J/kg instability. Convection
will be shallow and will struggle to form cloud ice. So no thunder
is present in the forecast. Precipitation, if any, will wane with
the sunset. Cooler northeast flow will keep daytime high
temperatures around the mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...Influence from the offshore low will
linger Friday night into Saturday with isolated to scattered showers
mainly for southern Vermont. A few sprinkles will be possible across
central Vermont Friday night and Saturday afternoon, but no
appreciable chance of meaningful rainfall. More noticeably, the high
temperatures Saturday will trend back to seasonal averages in the
low/mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure is highly favored to return
late Saturday through the beginning of next week with dry conditions
expected. However, with easterly surface flow associated with the
lingering offshore low, temperatures are not expected to rebound.
Highs in the mid/upper 60s to around 70 degrees are likely to
persist through much of next week with cooler lows mainly in the
40s.

By midweek, there are continued indications of a pattern shift with
an amplified low potentially riding up the backside of the upper
level ridge as early as Tuesday. Blended model guidance shows a more
progressive pattern trying to move the ridge. However, blocking
patterns are notoriously stubborn, so it should take more time to
beat down the upper ridge. Therefore, edged the forecast more
towards deterministic models which better highlight the conceptual
model of a slower onset of rain. With a slower onset, jet energy
will most likely exit northward before a front can sweep through the
North Country indicating a weakening of surface features over time.
Kept slight chances of rain mainly Tuesday into Wednesday.
Ensemble/deterministic/blended guidance become aligned by Wednesday
night into late next week with another system moving into the
backside of the ridge. This system should have more success in
moving into the North Country, thus favored at least scattered
showers returning. It should be noted that model guidance keeps the
rex blocking pattern over eastern Canada, so there is no guarantee
that there couldn`t be a more westward placement of this persistent
feature that would keep conditions drier and warmer over the North
Country.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are present, with
patchy fog starting to form, but a bit more slowly than the last
several nights due to high clouds about 15000-20000 ft agl.
Still expecting fog to form across favored valleys and indicate
LIFR to IFR conditions for KMSS/KSLK/KMPV/KEFK through about
11z-13z. Otherwise, quiet weather with north to northeast winds
around 5 knots and few clouds that trend light or terrain
driven beyond 00z Friday.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Haynes