310
FXUS61 KBTV 041708
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
108 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build into our region today with partly
sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Tonight
clouds thicken with a cold rain arriving on Saturday. A wintry mix
of precipitation is anticipated for the higher terrain of the
northern Adirondacks and portions of the Green Mountains. In
addition gusty south winds will develop across the northern portion
of the Champlain Valley on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will only be in the upper 30s to upper 40s on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1234 PM EDT Friday...Convective debris from storms over
the Mid-Atlantic is pushing to the south, but an area of low
clouds over northern areas is being more stubborn. The cloud
deck has begun to erode across northern New York and it should
be mostly sunny there within a couple hours. It will take a bit
longer over parts of northern Vermont. Deep mixing has
increased winds today, but thankfully winds aloft are not too
strong, so peak gusts should generally be around or below 20
mph.

Previous discussion below:
Sfc analysis places 1026mb high pres near MSP this morning
while impressive conveyor of moisture continues acrs the MS and
OH valleys this morning. The cyclonic flow around sfc high pres
should keep deeper moisture to our south today, with modest llvl
caa prevailing on northwest 925mb to 850mb flow. Highs
generally mid 40s to mid 50s with northwest winds 5 to 15 mph
expected today. Some high lvl moisture in the fast flow aloft
may filter the sunshine from time to time, especially southern
VT.

Mid/upper lvl clouds thicken tonight as moisture in the 700 to 500mb
layer increases ahead of our next system. In addition developing
southwest 850mb jet of 50 to 60 knots wl help to enhance moisture
advection, especially by Sat morning. This nose of the llvl jet
combined with increasing 850 to 700mb fgen forcing wl help in the
development of precipitation, which wl quickly overspread our
fa on Sat morning from sw to ne. Initially soundings show deep
layer from sfc to 700mb, which wl result in some evaporational
cooling and support a mix of rain/snow above 1500 feet. As
east/southeast flow strengthens at 925mb on Sat aftn/evening
high res sounding data suggests a cold layer developing on
easterly upslope side of the Greens and Dacks, where 950 to
900mb temps fall btwn 0C and -4C. This cold layer wl support a
wintry mix of precip acrs the midslope and summits on Sat
aftn/evening mainly above 1500 feet. Ice accumulation of 1 to 2
tenths of an inch is possible and a winter wx advisory maybe
needed as confidence in amount and coverage becomes clearer.

A period of gusty southerly winds are likely Sat aft acrs the
northern CPV associated with developing subsidence inversion around
900mb and bottom of the mixed layer winds of 40 to 45 knots. Given
inversion hghts and north/south orientation of the CPV, a wind
advisory maybe needed for localized gusts 45 to 50 mph on Sat aftn.
Temps with clouds and precip wl struggle in the l/m 30s midslopes
and summits to mid 40s wider valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night and Sunday will feature
continuing active weather as a low pressure system passes straight
overhead. Rain will continue into Saturday night with threat for
freezing rain east of the Greens as temperatures drop below freezing
in those areas. Precipitation will wind down on Sunday as low
pressure pulls away from the New England coast. Winds will be gusty
Saturday night, especially in the Champlain valley with channeled
southerly flow, gusts up to 40 kts look possible. Storm total QPF
from Saturday through Sunday will range from half an inch to around
an inch. Some rises on area rivers and streams are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...Sunday night onward will feature continued
active weather as we remain under progressive upper level flow.
Several systems will pass through the area bringing additional
chances for precipitation, and also some gusty winds. Monday through
Wednesday look cool with a trend back towards seasonal normals
beyond Wednesday. Right now Wednesday looks to be the warmest and
driest day of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions should persist through tonight
at all terminals. Ceilings will lower during the day tomorrow and
they will likely fall below 3,000 FT in many places in the afternoon.
Rain arrives tomorrow from west to east. It looks to reach the
northern New York terminals in the morning, but it will likely take
until the afternoon to reach the Vermont terminals. Brief visibility
reductions are likley in the heaviest rain showers. LLWS will
develop during the day tomorrow. Winds will continue northwesterly
for the rest of this afternoon before generally becoming light and
variable tonight. They will increase tomorrow out of the southeast,
with gusts in the 15 to 25 KT range. Higher gusts are expected at
BTV and PBG.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Definite RA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Myskowski