662
FXUS61 KBTV 230220
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
920 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief break in precipitation, more elevationally dependent
snow and rain spreads back through much of the region late tonight.
This time, greater precipitation amounts will be focused over
central and eastern Vermont, where light snow accumulations are
expected primarily tomorrow morning. Then a breezy, upslope pattern
will develop, supporting several inches of snow through the weekend
in the northern Green Mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 916 PM EST Friday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Isolated showers continue to spin
west/northwestward across our region, drifting around low
pressure centered to our south. Coverage has been fairly
spotty, and in fact have some clearing occurring over portions
of northern VT and NY at this hour. This has allowed
temperatures to drop a little more than previously anticipated
in some spots, though overall we remain in the mid 30s to low
40s. This cooling should slow as clouds spread back over the
region, but trends will need to be monitored going forward,
specifically for the threat of wet surfaces/roads dropping below
freezing. Have made some slight adjustments to temps/sky to
match the latest observations and satellite trends, but no other
changes were needed with this update.

Previous discussion...A pronounced dry slot over the region
continues to bring mostly dry weather this afternoon and
tonight, with surface low pressure centered over the Catskills
of New York. After becoming fairly scattered this afternoon,
cloud cover will increase throughout the evening ahead of the
next round of precipitation arriving late tonight into tomorrow
morning as low pressure strengths off the New England coast.
Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the 30s, with
locations near Lake Champlain closer to 40.

The next round of precipitation will bring the greatest amounts of
rain to eastern Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom, which missed out
a bit during the earlier precipitation. Some light snow
accumulations will be possible tonight into tomorrow morning above
1500ft as snow levels lower, with an inch or so along the spine of
the Greens. High temperatures will generally be near seasonal
normal, generally in the 40s but breezy northwesterly flow due to a
tight pressure gradient will make it feel quite brisk. By tomorrow
afternoon, widespread precipitation will taper off, with upslope
snow regime becoming favored with blocked flow. These showers will
continue to bring additional inches of snow accumulation to the
higher summits, generally above 2000ft elevation. Overnight lows
Saturday night will be very similar to tonight, with temperatures
dropping into the upper 20 and 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EST Friday...Upslope snow conditions with light rain in
the valleys continue on Sunday as an upper vort moves across the
northern part of the region before quickly being absorbed by the
retreating upper low. Models still show weak moisture in the DGZ
which should limit the high elevation snow to a couple inches during
the day. Lower elevations east of the Greens could see snow light
snow lingering through mid day, but totals right now look to be less
than an inch. Gusty northwest winds will continue through the day
out of the northwest before finally abating after midnight. As
precipitation comes to an end Sunday, evening cloud cover will
decrease overnight as a weak ridge moves into the region bringing a
brief period of dry weather. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 30s
to mid 40s with overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Friday...While the period will start off quiet,
things will get active as we move later into the week. Monday will
be dry for most of the day as weak ridging moves through the region.
This will give way to rapidly deepening upper trough that moves
through the Great Lakes region Monday night and into our area early
Tuesday morning. Timing will be key as the system moves in, some
areas, east of the Greens and NEK in particular could still below
freezing at the surface which could lead to pre-dawn freezing rain.
Right now, the models are struggling with the system this far out,
so while the forecast currently has rain-snow mix, keeping an eye on
the future runs and the freezing rain in particular will be very
important, especially with potentially early travelers on the move
for the holiday weekend. The good news is that temperatures will
warm through the day, changing over any mix to just rain, save the
highest elevations.

Wednesday will see mainly mountain snow showers with a potential for
a few flakes in the lower Vallie`s due to a mix of upslope and lake
effect snow. While Thanksgiving Day should start out dry, another
system moves in that looks to bring another round of snow and some
rain in the valleys. It`s still far out, but right now things look
to be unsettled for the entire Thanksgiving Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Ceilings will decrease tonight, particularly
after midnight once winds change to northwesterly. The ceilings
should quickly lower to MVFR and then IFR by daybreak at most
terminals. Ceilings are expected to then hold steady for a bit
before gradually rising during the day. Most terminals should reach
MVFR by sometime tomorrow afternoon. Scattered showers will be
present during much of this period. They will be rain in most places
though snow should mix in at SLK, EFK and MPV for a period of time.
The rain showers do not look heavy enough to significantly reduce
visibilities, but the snow showers should at least lower
visibilities to MVFR. The coverage of the showers should gradually
decrease during the day tomorrow. Winds will generally be
northeasterly this evening before becoming northwesterly later
tonight. They will increase a bit during the day tomorrow, with
gusts of 10 to 20 KTs possible at any terminal. LLWS looks to
develop at MPV and RUT later in the day tomorrow.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Definite SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Definite SHSN.
Tuesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Myskowski