659
FXUS61 KBTV 111753
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
153 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures continue into mid-week before a weak cold
front pass through Wednesday. The hottest day will be Tuesday,
with heat indices exceeding 95F in the Champlain and Saint
Lawrence Valleys. Wednesday`s front will cool temperatures 5-10
degrees and bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms, with
a brief reprieve from the heat by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...Persistence will reign supreme over
the area for the remainder of today and tomorrow with a
persistent ridge of high pressure hanging around. A few fair
weather cumulus clouds have developed across the higher terrain,
but shower activity is not expected today with a potent dry air
mass in place. Temperatures will continue to range into the
mid-90s today with overnight lows falling into the 60s, and
perhaps the mid 50s in the Adirondacks with clear skies. While
we did not issue a heat advisory for today, caution should be
used for sensitive groups as well as anyone planning on being
outside for extended periods of time. A calm and clear evening
is expected with calming winds. Widespread fog is not
anticipated tonight due to the long-term detachment from any
rain, though some patchy fog could form along the Connecticut
River Valley.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for tomorrow from 8 AM to 8 AM
Wednesday for persistent hot temperatures up to 96 degrees in
the St. Lawrence and northern Champlain Valleys. Temperatures
will still be hot outside of the advisory with highs in the low
90s. Remember to drink plenty of water and take extra
precautions if planning any outdoor activities. Clear skies and
calm conditions similar to today will continue into tomorrow.
Overnight lows on Tuesday will provide little relief for
structural cooling with values in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Clouds will increase late Tuesday night as an approaching weak
cold front approaches the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...A weak cold front will try its best
at dislodging our ridge with moderate success. The front will
come through in typical North Country fashion with a leading
prefrontal trough and then the following frontal boundary. Most
of the shower activity will be focused in northern New York
Wednesday morning, and shift towards northern Vermont by the
afternoon. GFS and NAM soundings show LCLs around 800mb with the
potent dry air mass ahead of the boundary. Any showers and
thunderstorms that develop will be high based which could lead
to some breezy winds across northern New York with DCAPE values
around 600-700 J/kg. The NAM is more aggressive with overall
SBCAPE given how hot it will be with near 2000 J/kg, however,
with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70, deep moist convection, and
therefore any stronger to severe storms appears unlikely at
this time. A broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms
seems to be more likely. Many locations will likely miss out on
any meaningful rain, however, those that receive a shower could
see a quarter to a third of an inch of rainfall. High
temperatures due to the disorganized nature of the front, some
locations in southern Vermont could see a fifth day of
temperatures in the 90s. Temperatures will begin to moderate
Wednesday night with values in the low to mid 60s as winds
slowly shift to the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 143 PM EDT Monday...The surface front is favored to move
through the North Country Thursday with shower chances
diminishing and flow turning northerly. This will help decrease
temperatures back into the low/mid 80s Thursday/Friday providing
a brief reprieve from recent heat. However, temperatures are
likely to climb again into the upper 80s to near 90 over the
weekend with ridging reasserting itself. Models/ensemble show
this ridge to be more pliable than the dominant heat dome of
earlier in the week allowing fronts to ride over/along its
northern extension and through the North Country. Guidance
favors the next front to move through Sunday with potential for
a sharper cooling trend back towards seasonal temperatures by
next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Oppressive ridging will keep skies mostly
clear outside of daily fair weather cumulus and VFR conditions
prevailing. Fog chances are quite low tonight and with best
chances pinned to just along the Connecticut River given arid
surface conditions. Winds will be following tertiary controls
with a breeze up to 10kts off of lake Champlain at BTV/PBG
during the day and light/calm winds overnight.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record daily high temperatures are likely on Monday, August 11,
and Tuesday, August 12. Below are some of the records in
jeopardy of being broken:

Max Temp Records

August 11th - Forecast|Record (Year)
KBTV         KMPV        KMSS        KPBG        KSLK
             91|90(2016) 94|93(2016) 92|91(1970) 89|93(1944)

August 12th - Forecast|Record (Year)
KBTV         KMPV        KMSS        KPBG        KSLK
95|93(2002)  92|89(2021) 95|91(1988) 93|90(2007) 90|93(1944)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     VTZ001-002-005-009-016-017.
NY...Heat Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     NYZ026>028-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...WFO BTV