018
FXUS61 KBTV 191353
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
953 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
On and off showers will continue through midday with
increasingly breezy conditions, then scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will develop primarily in Vermont. Following warm
and humid conditions today, dry and cool weather will return for
Sunday. Changeable weather with seasonably warm air can largely
be expected next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 951 AM EDT Saturday...Previous forecaster did an excellent
job with the PoP updates. The next batch of showers and embedded
thunder is tracking into the Adirondacks now. Convective
activity is racing northeast in channeled flow between a digging
trough over the Great Lakes concurrent with building ridging
over the southeast. Stuff will continue to quickly stream
northeast. We`ll see how temperatures are affected by these
waves of rain, but for now, no changes.

Previous Discussion...
A train of subtropical moisture and rounds of thunderstorms
continues moving northeastward from just south of Baja
California into the eastern Great Lakes. Once these storms make
it into northern New York and Vermont on the cool side of a
surface warm front, they have lost fuel such that thunderstorms
have largely dissipated. The next round of showers early this
morning will mark the warm frontal passage, after which
southwesterly winds, or locally southerly in the Champlain
Valley, should start to pick up. These winds should peak after
another area of showers cross the area during the midday hours
from west to east and dampen the warming curve. Following these
showers during the remainder of the afternoon, some wind gusts
could reach the 35 to 45 MPH range in with terrain enhancements
across the Route 11 corridor of northern New York.

In addition to non-thunderstorm wind gusts, scattered
convection, especially after 3 PM or so, could produce localized
wind gusts of similar magnitude in portions of Vermont as surface-
based instability quickly increases. Think the previous rain will
help elevate dew points to near 60 degrees and partial sunshine
should allow temperatures to soar well into the 70s, with greatest
instability expected in Addison and Rutland counties. Forecast
soundings have an inverted V shape with high LCLs indicative of
gusty wind potential; effective shear could be too high to support
40 knots coincident with CAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Because
the frontal boundary will not be very sharp and height falls meager,
the large scale lift will be limited such that coverage of
thunderstorms looks to be pretty isolated, especially if CAPE winds
up being on the lower side of guidance. We have conditional
thunderstorm chances in a broad area but most locations probably
will not see thunderstorms today.

A secondary front will shift winds from westerly to northwesterly
with additional, lighter shower chances tonight. Chilly air will
filter in from the north behind this boundary. High temperatures on
Sunday will be much lower than today, mainly in the upper 40s to mid
50s, and breezy northwesterly winds will persist throughout the day
as high pressure remains to our west with pressure rises steadily
occurring. It will be another very dry air mass, and with us still
being pre-green-up, relative humidities should plummet well
below 30% with abundant sunshine. Wind gusts will not be overly
strong, but 20 to 25 MPH will be common, with some near 30 MPH
in eastern Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 406 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure will quickly slide
across the region Sunday night and Monday morning, giving way to
our next low pressure system by Monday evening. Initial warm
air advection precipitation will be slow to reach the ground as
the resident airmass will be quite dry, but rain should
gradually develop from west to east during the late
afternoon/evening hours. Low pressure will slide up to our west
Monday night and then north of the international border on
Tuesday, dragging a frontal boundary through our region as it
does so. The best moisture moves through Monday night, and
that`s when the bulk of the shower activity will occur.
Thunderstorm chances will be minimal given the lack of
instability. Winds will turn toward the west/northwest Tuesday
behind the front, so expect there will be some wrap around
mountain showers through much of the day, then coming to an end
Tuesday night. Monday and Tuesday will feature highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s. Lows will be coldest Sunday night due to light
winds and clear skies; temperatures should dip into the mid 20s
to mid 30s. Moisture and cloud cover will keep Monday night in
the 40s, but drying conditions by Tuesday night will allow lows
to get back down into the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 406 AM EDT Saturday...Ridging will build in for
Wednesday, though we`ll remain under fast zonal flow aloft. So
while Wednesday and Thursday should be mostly dry, can`t rule
out a few stray showers as weak shortwaves cross overhead.
Precipitation chances increase heading into Friday as a stronger
upper trough and its associated low pressure system will spread
rain eastward. There`s still quite a bit of model spread in how
this next system shapes up, and a wide range in solutions for
placement/timing of precipitation. Have stayed close to the NBM
for the end of the long term period to account for these
differences, which gives chance PoPs by late Friday.
Temperatures will remain seasonable through the last half of the
week, with Thursday being the warmest day as most spots warm
into the 60s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Many clusters of showers with increasing
chances of thunder are moving over portions of the airspace
today ahead of a cold front. Within heavier elements
visibilities are falling into the MVFR category, with brief IFR
conditions possible. This morning showers are bypassing MPV and
RUT, but additional rounds of showers, between 15Z and 17Z, may
move over all TAF sites. With ample clouds, it is hard to suss
out any particular location where thunderstorms are more likely
this afternoon with the latest trends. Behind a cold front ceilings
will trend lower as winds turn west-northwesterly after 00Z.

Low level wind shear will linger at sites where surface winds
are light through about 16Z. Thereafter gusty southwesterly
winds 20 to 30 knots will trend westerly towards 00Z and then
northwesterly overnight with gradually decreasing wind speeds.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff