601
FXUS61 KBTV 221950
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
250 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bitterly cold conditions will continue through tonight as an arctic
airmass remains the region. Temperatures are forecast to moderate
towards the end of the week with periods of snow showers expected
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 249 PM EST Wednesday...High pressure centered to our south has
allowed for mostly blue skies and cold temperatures, with highs this
afternoon climbing into the teens with a few locations struggling to
warm above single digits. Although no Cold Weather Advisories have
been issued for tonight, it will continue to be blustery with
overnight lows generally in the single digits and wind chills below
zero. Cloud cover will gradually increase tonight ahead of an
approaching upper- level shortwave, which combined with increasing
southerly flow, will help keep overnight temperatures warmer than
the last few nights.

An upper level shortwave will bring some chances for light snow
showers across northern New York and the Adirondacks with plenty of
cloud cover across the region Thursday into Friday. This feature
will be rather moisture starved, which will limit snowfall
accumulations. Temperatures on Thursday will still be cold and below
normal for this time of year, but several degrees warmer than the
last couple of days. Daytime highs will climb into the teens and
lower 20s, while overnight lows will primarily be in the single
digits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 249 PM EST Wednesday...Our overall warming trend will pause
briefly on Friday due to subtle cold air advection. 850 mb
temperatures will fall from -13C Thursday towards -19C Friday, so
anticipate surface temperatures a few degrees cooler on Friday.
Highs are forecast in the teens to low 20s during the day. Some very
light lingering snow showers are possible over higher elevations
Friday morning as a shortwave trough moves through and eventually
closes into a closed low near the NEK by Saturday morning. Very
shallow depth of moisture will limit coverage of snow showers to
just higher elevations, and daytime accumulations will generally be
a dusting if anything. Will see a drying trend through the day and a
trend towards partly to mostly sunny skies toward the evening.
Surface ridging will crest just to our south Saturday morning while
the upper low shifts east, so anticipate some areas to clear out
overnight. Lows will be in the single digits below zero for eastern
Vermont and the northern Adirondacks, and in the single digits above
zero in valley locations. Winds will generally be light overnight,
so wind chills will not be a concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 249 PM EST Wednesday...Temperatures will moderate going into
the weekend as the center of the ridge shifts east and return
southerly flow develops. By Saturday, highs will reach into the low
to upper 20s, and by Sunday some valley locations may briefly even
tick above freezing. Another clipper system will move through
Saturday night into Sunday, bringing another quick shot of light
snow to the area. Best chances for snow accumulations will be in
the higher elevations, where orographic lift will help snow
accumulations. While our official snow forecast only goes out
through Saturday, ECENS and GEFS ensemble guidance suggests most of
the area will pickup less than an inch of snow over the weekend, if
anything. The one exception will be areas of the northern
Adirondacks, where low level moisture will be locally higher off of
Lake Ontario and a few inches of snow are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Clear skies and VFR will persist today at
all TAF sites through 03Z prior to the passage of a shortwave
across northern New York tomorrow. Some fair weather cumulus
clouds have developed across the Adirondacks and northern
Greens, though ceilings should remain VFR through this evening.
Winds will generally be light and variable across the area
before turning more southerly by 00Z. Drainage winds at RUT look
to decrease this afternoon, before returning by 00Z. MSS will
likely retain some 10-20 knot gusts under southwesterly flow,
however, these are likely to calm by 00Z as well. A shortwave
will bring snow shower chances to MSS bewteen 03-06Z, before
steadier snow fills in after 06Z. Due to a lack of moisture
across Vermont and in the Champlain Valley, most snow showers
will be confined to MSS and SLK. Snow showers at MSS/SLK could
trend ceilings to MVFR and visibilities to MVFR with isolated
IFR under more moderate snow showers, especially at MSS. Blocked
flow on the Greens at BTV could lead to some snow showers that
briefly reduce ceilings towards MVFR at times between 15-18Z
tomorrow.


Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Danzig