346
FXUS61 KBTV 020642
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
242 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a period of cooler days, warmer weather is opening the
month of September. A few scattered showers will be possible
today and tomorrow, but better chances for more widespread rain
will arrive Thursday evening into Friday ahead of a large upper
low. In addition to wetting rain, there will be some stronger
winds Thursday and Friday, especially in the Champlain Valley
and far northern Adirondacks.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 232 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface high pressure will remain
centered over the region today before it gradually pushes off to
the east tomorrow. Despite the surface high, there is a weak
upper low moving through and it is bringing some high cloud
cover. No rain is expected for the rest of the night, but the
low will bring cool enough conditions aloft for a little
instability to develop this afternoon, so a few isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. The areas with
the highest probabilities of seeing them are over the terrain
of the Adirondacks and Greens, but even there they are under 40
percent. A few showers are possible again tomorrow afternoon,
but the probabilities of seeing them are even less than today.
The surface high will cause another night of ideal radiational
cooling tonight. With less cloud cover than currently out there,
patchy fog will be more widespread in the favored valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 232 AM EDT Tuesday...A deep trough will approach the
region on Thursday, increasing shower chances and bringing gusty
winds. The initial front currently looks to enter northern New
York sometime Thursday afternoon and reach Vermont sometime in
the evening or overnight. It will likely bring a round of steady
precipitation, with some embedded convective elements possible.
However, weak instability should prevent much of a severe
threat. An associated southerly low level jet will bring strong
winds late Wednesday night through Thursday. Channeling in the
Champlain Valley and downsloping in the far northern Adirondacks
will enhance the winds there, and gusts to 30 mph are expected,
though they could be locally higher in the most favored
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...Still expecting some gusty winds
Thursday night ahead of surface boundary which will bring
showers with possible thunderstorms to our area overnight. Our
weather will remain quite active through the weekend as a series
of boundaries move across the region, additional threat for
showers are likely, especially across the higher terrain.
Temperatures will slowly trend back below normal by late weekend
into early next week with a drying trend expected by early next
week. Highs generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s for Friday
and Saturday, before cooling back into the upper 50s to mid 60s
by Sunday/Monday, while lows are in the upper 40s to near 60s to
start, but cool back into the mid 30s to upper 40s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z Wednesday...Fog has already formed at MPV, and
additional fog formation is possible at both SLK and EFK as some
clearing works it`s way into the region. Winds shift southerly
in the morning becoming westerly through the afternoon with an
upper low circulation dragging across the region. Lapse rates
and daytime surface instability will support some showers,
especially over higher terrain of the Adirondacks. There will be
about a 30% chance of a shower in the 18-24Z time frame for
SLK/MSS/EFK with 15-20% at BTV/PBG/MPV.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles