213
FXUS61 KBTV 120743
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
343 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry conditions will persist through mid week before
chances of showers increase late week and especially over the
weekend. Otherwise, some breezes are expected this afternoon
and temperatures will warm to well above seasonal average by
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 334 AM EDT Monday...The threat of frost will rapidly
deteriorate this morning as cloud cover increases. After 6AM,
temperatures begin to warm in earnest with highs today generally
in the low/mid 70s. Did increase winds for this afternoon based
off of mixing and projected 925mb wind speeds. Gusts will
generally be out of the south range 15 to 25 mph. High pressure
amplifies today with strong subsidence over the North Country.
Clear skies will support strong radiation inversions, but a
slight bump in dew points over will help keep tonight`s lows
warmer in 40s and low 50s. Tuesday will be somewhat interesting.
A trough will be moving along the backside of the upper ridge
and could support a few isolated thunderstorms towards the St
Lawrence Valley of NY. Temperatures will otherwise warming into
the mid/upper 70s for most spots to around 80 degrees for a few
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 AM EDT Monday...The rex block anchored across the central
US will continue to break down Tuesday night and Wednesday with deep
layer ridging gradually weakening and shifting eastward.
Nevertheless, it appears we will remain on the dry side through
Wednesday night. Global guidance, now with support from regional
guidance, is suggesting that a warm front will move from south to
north across the North Country on Wednesday but subsidence from the
upper level ridge and lack of any appreciable low level convergence
will likely cause any shower activity to our south to fall apart
prior to moving into southern Vermont. We have introduced 10-20%
PoPs for southern Vermont on the outside chance that we could see a
few showers but chances are much more likely that dry weather will
prevail. In addition, we should continue to see above normal
temperatures with highs in the 70s on Wednesday and overnight lows
in the 50s Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 334 AM EDT Monday...With a full collapse of the rex block
expected, deterministic and ensemble guidance is hinting at large
scale upper level troughing remaining across the Northeast late this
week and well into the upcoming weekend. This will likely result in
a showery regime with diurnal convection in the form of showers and
isolated thunderstorms likely on Thursday and Friday afternoon. As
we head into next weekend, there is increasing consensus within the
individual members of the GEFS, GEPS, and Ecmwf ensemble. that a
potent lee side low will form off the Rocky Mountains and track
across the western Great Lakes. While this feature will be well to
our west, the upper level flow will become increasingly conducive
for a large fetch of Gulf moisture and favorable mid-level jet
dynamics. Widespread showers, and likely some thunderstorms, seem
like a good bet for at least part of Saturday, if not all of
Saturday, but there remains considerable timing differences given
the low hasn`t formed yet. No significant weather appears likely in
the long term but it may be a good idea to hold onto your rain
jackets and umbrellas as another unsettled period of weather appears
likely.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Winds aloft, dry low levels, and
increasing clouds will preclude any fog despite recent rains.
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Light
winds overnight will transition 13-16Z to southerly breezes
with most terminals gusting 15-20kts except BTV/MSS where
around 25kts will be expected during peak mixing today. Winds
shift west- northwesterly late in the period going light after
00Z Tuesday.


Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for VTZ006-
     008-010-017>021.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Boyd