603
FXUS61 KBTV 070821
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
321 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moving into the region will provide most cloudy
skies and a few sprinkles this morning before skies clear this
afternoon. A stronger cold front will bring additional scattered
valley rain and mountain snow showers on Friday, along with blustery
winds in excess of 30 mph. Dry and cool conditions are expected for
Saturday, with a solid wetting rain expected late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 321 AM EST Thursday...Mainly quiet weather is expected today as
a weakly forced cold front works southeastward across the North
Country and Vermont. A few light rain showers or sprinkles are noted
on current radar post frontal passage hugging the international
border, and should progress southeastward behind the front this
morning before scattering out midday and sunshine developing this
afternoon. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will allow for some
cooling tonight, but surface winds are expected to increase after
midnight as another, stronger front approaches along with a modest
25-45kt 925- 850mb jet. This should keep lows above freezing in the
mid 30s to low 40s. Gusts will rapidly increase across northern New
York after midnight to near 30kts, and similarly across Vermont
after sunrise with a blustery day expected. Strong cold air
advection combined with WNW upslope flow will additionally support
scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers to develop through
the day with snow levels mainly above 3000 feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 AM EST Thursday...A few showers will linger into the first
part of Friday night, along with blustery northwest winds.
Temperatures will dip into the mid 20s to mid 30s, so some showers
could mix with and/or change over to snow for a brief time. Any
accumulation would be minimal and confined to 2000 ft or above. Both
the winds and showers will gradually wane toward Saturday morning as
the upper shortwave exits to the east. High pressure will build
across the Northeast CONUS, keeping the first half of the weekend
cool, but dry under mostly sunny skies. Winds will remain a little
breezy Saturday afternoon, but overall it shouldn`t be too bad of a
day with highs mainly in the 40s. Saturday night will be likewise
dry, though clouds will increase later in the overnight hours ahead
of our next system. Still, it will be a chilly night with lows in
the 20s to around 30F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EST Thursday...Our next chance for widespread
precipitation arrives for the end of the weekend and lasts right
into early next week. a vigorous upper shortwave will push eastward
across the Great Lakes Sunday and then across northern New England
on Monday. Meanwhile, the surface low system will lift from the
Midwest east-northeastward toward the St Lawrence River Valley,
likely remaining to the west/north of the international border. The
result will be increasing moisture out ahead of a series of frontal
boundaries associated with the surface low. This feature will be
fairly progressive, and the bulk of the rainfall should exit to the
east by Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts of a tenth to upwards of
half an inch look possible, with only minimal chances of any snow at
the highest summits. High pressure and dry weather takes hold
thereafter and should linger through mid-week. Temperatures through
the period will remain fairly seasonable, with daytime highs in the
upper 40s to upper 50s and overnight lows in the 30s, though Tuesday
night will be a little cooler after a cold frontal passage early
Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...BKN-OVC VFR conditions will trend to a mix
of MVFR/VFR during the remainder of the overnight hours and
through mid-morning as a weak cold front continues to drop
through the region. MVFR ceilings will mainly affect KSLK and
KEFK but can`t be ruled out at all other sites except KRUT.
Ceilings lift to all VFR by the afternoon with skies clearing
thereafter. Winds will be mainly WNW at 5-8kts through the
period with some gusts upwards of 16-18kts for a short period
around midday, then abate after 21Z.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Veterans Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Lahiff