676
FXUS61 KBTV 092121
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
521 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of snow showers will continue this afternoon and evening
before tapering off by tomorrow morning. Temperatures will warm into
the upper 30s to mid 40s tomorrow, with even milder temperatures
arriving on Tuesday. After a return to seasonably cold weather on
Wednesday, temperatures will continue to warm heading towards the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...Several rounds of showers will continue
this afternoon and overnight, with generally an inch or two across
most of the region, with locally higher amounts across the higher
elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Showers this
afternoon will continue to be quite scattered and somewhat
convective in nature with steep lapse rates and plenty of available
moisture. While most of these showers have been fairly unorganized,
heavier bursts of snow will be possible which can make for rapidly
changing road conditions with visibilities briefly dropping below a
mile. While mostly snow is expected, some rain will be possible
within the broader valleys with slightly warmer temperatures. A
brief break in the shower activity is expected this evening, before
more widespread showers develop overnight as a quick moving clipper
system passes through the region.

Any lingering snow showers will continue to taper off Monday morning
as the shortwave pulls away, with minor additional snowfall
accumulations expected. With the snowfall Sunday night into Monday,
some slick road conditions may be possible during the Monday morning
commute. Once the showers taper off, temperatures will trend warmer
throughout the day, with highs climbing into the 40s Monday
afternoon. Quiet conditions will continue into Monday, with
overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 519 PM EDT Sunday...A low pressure system will move through
northern Canada pushing a surface cold front through the North
Country on Tuesday. While some showers can be expected, moisture
will largely be displaced well north leaving the region devoid
of significant precipitation amounts. Still, showers will occur,
especially on upslope locations in the northern Greens, so
precipitation chances were increased above model guidance into
the "likely" category. Unseasonably warm temperatures will
precip character as rain showers during the day transitioning to
snow showers after sunset; the March sun angle will be
sufficient to keep paved surfaces wet rather than icy limiting
impacts further. With tight thermal/pressure gradients, breezy
to gusty winds out of the southwest during the day transitioning
to northerly behind the front overnight into Wednesday. Gusts
20-30 mph are expected in general with a few wind prone
locations possibly approaching 40mph. These winds will drive
strong warm air advection during the day pushing highs into the
upper 40s to mid/upper 50s with strong cold air advection
dropping temperatures back below freezing overnight; lows
ranging from the lower teens to 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 519 PM EDT Sunday...High pressure will be favored Wednesday
through early Thursday with temperatures moderating back
towards seasonal averages. Southerly flow is overwhelmingly
progged to return Thursday through the end of the week. The
position of high pressure will favor a series of warm fronts
with periodic shower chances late Thursday through Saturday.
Model consensus strengthens warm air advection into the weekends
with indicators pointing towards a sharp warming trend with
highs moving into the 60s by Saturday. Prolonged anomalous
warming starting Friday will likely continue into Sunday
allowing for melting of a decent portion of the remaining
snowpack at low/mid elevations. We expect some river rises and
ice movement, but it`s too early to pin down which areas could
jam up or precisely how much of the snowpack will melt. There is
potential for a strong trough moving through late next weekend
that could bring widespread rainfall. Timing/amplitude variances
at this time scale can be large, so will refrain from narrowing
in on specific impacts at this time, we`ll be monitoring the
evolution of this system closely over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...While most terminals are currently
experiencing VFR conditions, intervals of snow showers will
bring periods of reduced visibilities and ceilings especially to
terminals like KSLK and KEFK. Some of these showers may be
briefly heavy in nature, bringing short periods where
visibilities drop below 1SM but coverage will be pretty
scattered. The intermittent IFR and MVFR conditions will
continue for the next few hours, with a brief break in
precipitation before a round of widespread snow showers brings a
period of IFR visibilities to all terminals overnight,
generally between 02Z and 06Z. By 12Z, precipitation will
diminish and visibilities will improve to P6SM but MVFR ceilings
may linger through the morning. Winds will be westerly for much
of the afternoon between 5 to 10 knots with occasional gusts,
becoming light and variable overnight. A period of LLWS is
expected across all terminals between 03Z and 12Z depending on
the terminal.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer