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FXUS61 KBTV 261947
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
347 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A bout of winter weather for some is expected late
tonight into Sunday as a strong upper level system tracks over the
region. A cold rain will mix with snow at times into lower
elevations while snow falls in the mountains, but as clouds and
precipitation shifts eastward more seasonable air will quickly
return. The next chance for showers with possible thunderstorms will
come Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of a potent cold front,
then another round of precipitation returns late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 347 PM EDT Saturday...A vigorous upper level low is
digging across southeastern Ontario this afternoon. In
combination with a surface low pressure tracking across Vermont,
numerous showers are present amidst an axis of marginal
instability and shear. This scenario leads to a low chance of
lightning within a cell or two through early evening, especially
across south central Vermont. Generally the magnitude of mixed
layer CAPE looks too low for thunderstorms with cloud tops
limited by poor mid-level lapse rates. Showers tonight will
become more scattered but persist especially in northern Vermont
during the evening and the first part of the night, and then
more focused in northern New York overnight as steady
precipitation begins to pinwheel in on the backside of the
upper level low. Much colder air aloft will surge in from the
west this evening over northern New York and then Vermont
overnight, with the "warmest" air across northeastern Vermont
where the cold air takes longest to arrive.

As low level convergence increases amidst cold air aloft with the
upper level low crossing the region, precipitation should blossom
tomorrow morning over northern Vermont. Periods of heavier
precipitation are favored during the mid morning to early afternoon
period, which will support sharply lowering snow levels from
mountain summits down to mid-slopes and perhaps intermittently the
valley floors during this timeframe. Have moved the forecast towards
the idea of rain with a chance of snow for across Vermont generally
above 1000 feet, with a slight chance of snow in the lowest
elevations. A slushy coating of snow at mid-slopes seems reasonable
primarily on grassy surfaces, while up to several inches are
possible at the highest summits. No travel concerns exists given
mild temperatures and lack of very intense precipitation that could
overcome the temperature limitation with regards to accumulations on
roads. On the western periphery of the system, skies will become
sunny resulting in a huge contrast in weather in our region by mid-
afternoon. Mild, albeit breezy conditions, will be common in western
portions of northern New York where temperatures could reach the low
60s; meanwhile, snow will be falling in portions of northern
Vermont. The incoming milder air will continue moving to the east
through the rest of the period, resulting in a quick drying trend
and seasonable temperatures Sunday night, only dipping back into the
upper 30s to mid 40s in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...Remnant shower activity in our eastern
zones Sunday night will give way to clearing skies as the low
pressure moves from the Gulf of Maine out into the Atlantic. The
drier conditions and sunny skies Monday will allow temperatures to
warm to near 70F for the Champlain and upper Connecticut valleys,
while the highest elevations along the Greens and ADK will be 10
degrees cooler. We continued to trend the RH values lower in an
attempt to come in line with recent bias corrections. Following
today`s wetting rain along with lower wind speeds on Monday, we
don`t anticipate any fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...Temperatures will continue to climb on
Tuesday, with the warmest locations threatening to reach 80F before
a cold front sweeps through Tuesday evening. The latest guidance
slightly increases our threat of thunderstorms along the front. The
primary concern remains the Saint Lawrence Valley where the
strongest axis of CAPE should be present. As the front moves
eastward, there is a rather small time frame for the development of
TSRA.

A warming trend begins on Wednesday as high pressure builds
overhead. Wednesday will feature highs in the mid 50s in northern
Vermont and New York, with warmer temperatures in southern Vermont.
The tight pressure gradient behind the front will leave us with
strong, gusty winds. Thursday and Friday will continue the warming
trend, with temperatures reaching the upper 60s by Friday. The next
cold front is currently forecast for Friday night into Saturday,
where we are showing POPs in excess of 70 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Low pressure is currently centered over
the region producing light wind fields and varied ceilings,
except persistently low cloud bases at MSS. Numerous showers are
moving through northern New York ahead of a potent upper level
low that will cross the region tonight into Sunday morning.
These could produce temporary low visibilities under the
heavier showers, but think prevailing MVFR/IFR will be mostly
driven off of ceilings. Shower chances will continue past 00Z,
although between 06Z and 12Z a lull in precipitation is expected
at most terminals before widespread rain resumes.

Winds will increase, remaining mainly in the 5 to 10 knot range
and greatest at southern terminals, especially from 22Z to 00Z.
These winds will tend to shift westerly, or locally northerly
at BTV. Wind direction will become more uniformly northwesterly
by 12Z as the region sits on the southwestern periphery of
departing low pressure. A few gusts to near 20 knots will be
possible, but frequent gusts are unlikely through this period.



Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Kutikoff