646
FXUS61 KBTV 101903
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
203 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread light to moderate snowfall will continue through this
afternoon before becoming more confined to the mountains tonight
through Thursday night. Strong winds will develop by tomorrow
morning into Friday. The colder and active pattern will persist into
next week with a few additional chances for snow, though no big
systems are expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Steady light to moderate snow is continuing across the region this
afternoon, with a dry slot beginning to develop across the High
Peaks Wilderness that will eventually move over the Champlain
Valley. Overall, the system remains to be on track in regards to
snow amounts. The Winter Weather Advisory for portions of Vermont
will continue until 1 AM Thursday, and for portions of New York
until 7 AM Thursday. An additional 1 to 3 inches, particularly
across southern Vermont and the spine of the Greens are possible,
with an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow across portions of the St.
Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks. Fascinatingly, dendrites
have become significantly smaller as a low level jet associated with
the system continues to push north. Shearing aloft has broken down
some of the larger dendrites in smaller dendrites which is resulting
in slightly lower snow amounts, about 0.5" lower in general, from
the prior forecast, though still generally on track impact wise.
Additionally, while we undergoing decent waa, wet-bulbing from the
snow has kept temperatures larger under 30. As the main warm frontal
forcing shifts to the north over the next few hours, and a dry slot
continues to materialize, more mixing of stronger gusts and warmer
air will filter in from the south. Air temperatures could briefly
touch or be just above freezing this afternoon, particularly across
southern Vermont and the Champlain Valley. Although temperatures
will briefly rise to at or above freezing, it will be short lived
and precipitation should mainly remain snow with wet-bulbing aloft
and thermal processes reducing the threat of any flash freeze or
icing this afternoon. Lingering snow could pose some impacts to the
evening commute tonight across the region, and with snow continuing
in New York into tomorrow, the Thursday morning commute. As the low
moves overhead tonight and into tomorrow, the snow will become more
showery and confined to the upslope favored regions of the northern
Greens and northwestern Adirondacks. Temperatures will remain on the
mild side for the start of the overnight before a cold front passes
through around midnight with a quick dusting possible in northern
Vermont. Temperatures will quickly fall behind the front back
towards the single digits to low teens by sunrise, and continue to
remain cool under strong northwest caa. Overnight lows likely will
not occur until close to sunrise, after the front passes through.

Thursday will be a cold and snow showery day as the low today
departs. Temperatures will generally be non-diurnal with
temperatures either holding or continuing to fall throughout the
daytime hours. Strong caa will begin early Thursday morning and will
be accompanied by gusts up to 30 to 40 MPH in the downslope regions
of the eastern Adirondacks and southeastern Greens. Elsewhere gusts
15 to 25 mph will be possible. Top of the mixed layer winds will be
around 40 to 45 knots, though upslope snow could play a role in
reducing how much of these stronger winds get mixed to the surface.
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday. As of right now, winds gusts remain
below advisory criteria. Snow showers will remain across the higher
terrain with an additional 2-4" across the western facing faces of
the Adirondacks and perhaps 3-6" in and around Jay Peak in Vermont.
The main period of upslope snow looks to be Thursday afternoon
across New York before shifting to northern Vermont by Thursday
night. Additional Winter Weather Advisories may be needed, so keep
an eye to the forecast by tomorrow morning. Thursday night lows will
dip into the single digits just above 0 to the low teens in the
wider valleys with continued strong caa. Coupled with the gusts,
wind chills will be in the negative single digits during the day to
negative teens overnight for most locations outside the Champlain
Valley, where wind chills will be near 0.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...Snow showers for most areas will taper
off by Friday morning areawide with some chances of sunshine in
portions of the Champlain, St. Lawrence, and lower Connecticut
Valleys, though the higher terrain will likely remain under
continued scattered stratus with cooler temperatures aloft. Some
lingering snow showers with shallow moisture may persist through the
day Friday in the higher terrain in areas like Saranac Lake, NY and
Newport, VT. Temperatures on Friday will moderate back towards
seasonable averages with highs in the low to mid 20s in the valleys
and upper teens to low 20s in the higher terrain. Winds will also
begin to weaken Friday morning becoming more light and variable by
the afternoon with brief ridging creating overhead. Sunshine will
erode away with increasing clouds Friday night as a weak system
moves towards the region by Saturday with some chances of snow in
the extreme southern St. Lawrence Valley Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...Broad scale longwave troughing and
northwest flow pattern will remain highly likely over the Northeast
heading into the weekend. This pattern will continue temperatures
below seasonal averages with quick moving systems favored to
progress through the region. Two systems are expected to move
through likely on Saturday and again Monday. However, supporting jet
energy and more favorable synoptic dynamics are out of place leading
to these systems to become weaker variety mainly supporting snow
showers for higher terrain and more intermittent, nuisance showers
for lower elevations. Some snow gains will likely occur over the
northern Greens and Adirondacks, but will be more limited that
recent precipitation events. Otherwise, high pressure continues to
be favored heading into Monday with potential for stronger
radiational cooling Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, there
continues to be a large signal for pattern amplification with
southerly flow increasing and sharp height rises indicative of a
rapid warming trend. While temperatures will generally have highs in
the 20s and lows in the teens, outside of Sunday/Monday nights with
lows in the single digits, trends show warming potential well into
the 30s for highs and 20s for lows by Wednesday. Early implications
of this warming pattern are potential from some low elevation snow
melt and potential for mixed precipitation should a system pass
through. It`s definitely too far out for specifics, but we`ll be
watching this warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions will persist
through 12Z as snow continues. Conditions will begin to improve
after 12Z Thursday. LLWS will remain a threat until frontal passage
after 06Z with surface flow generally out of the south becoming
west. Gusts to 22kts are expected through before 08Z Thursday with
more widespread gusts 25-30kts out of the west after 08Z.

Currently not receiving observations from EFK, so included
amd not sked.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-011-016>020.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ026-027-
     029-030-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV