394
FXUS61 KBTV 150850
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
350 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds and low relative humidities will cause fire weather
concerns today, particularly across southern Vermont. Dry weather
will prevail through Sunday, before a few showers move through
Sunday night and into Monday. No significant rain is expected until
at least late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 337 AM EST Friday...High clouds have overspread most of the
region from the west, though they have yet to reach the Northeast
Kingdom. The edge of the high clouds will waver back and forth for
the rest of the night so parts of northern and eastern Vermont will
likely see periods of clear and cloudier skies. These clouds have
had limited effects on limiting radiational cooling though, so
temperatures have been able to drop back into the 20s in most
places. They will continue to creep down for the rest of the night
and the coldest areas should be able to reach the upper teens. These
high clouds will remain for most of today, but they will be thin
enough that it will still be mostly sunny. A low will retrograde
back west toward the region today and while it will not come close
enough to bring any precipitation, it will increase winds. They will
generally gust between 10 to 25 mph, though localized gusts up to 30
mph are possible in eastern Vermont. Combined with low relative
humidities, there will be high fire weather concerns, particularly
across portions of central and southern Vermont where a Red Flag
Warning is in effect. See the fire weather discussion for more
details. The low will remain to the east tonight and into Saturday,
and ridging will be attempting to build in from the west. This will
increase the pressure gradient a bit more and cause slightly
stronger winds on Saturday. The ridging will also begin to push some
warmer air into the region and temperatures will rise into the mid
40s to low 50s on Saturday, slightly above climatological normals.
An isolated shower or two cannot be completely ruled out tonight or
Saturday in the Northeast Kingdom from the aforementioned low, but
they are not expected at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 337 AM EST Friday...Saturday night and Sunday will feature more
dry weather as surface and upper level ridges build into Northern
New York and Vermont from the west. Our region will remain under
northerly flow, and temperatures will be very close to seasonal
normals for the middle of November. Minimum temperatures Saturday
night will range through the 20s, lower 30s along Lake Champlain.
Maximum temperatures on Sunday will range through the 40s with some
lower 50s in the valleys of southern Vermont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 337 AM EST Friday...Sunday night into Monday will bring our
next chance for some light showers, though not very much
accumulation anticipated. A weak surface trough will cross our area,
and we can`t rule out some light scattered rain showers with this
feature, though forcing is pretty weak and deep layer moisture is
lacking. Tuesday through Wednesday will be drier, then our next
better chance for some precipitation will be towards the end of the
week for Thursday into Friday. This will be a stronger system, with
much better forcing and upper level support as well. A vertically
stacked low pressure system will approach our forecast area from the
Great Lakes region. At this time looks like surface low will track
right across our forecast area. We`ll have some warm air advection
showery precipitation to start out on Thursday, then more stratiform
rain moves through with the low on Friday. Still quite far out, and
we will iron out the details as we get closer to the end of next
week. Hopefully we will get some beneficial precipitation for our
region. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than seasonal
normals through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions should prevail through the
next 24 hours. There is a low chance that a few lower clouds form on
Lake Champlain and drift over BTV later in the night and lower
ceilings for a few hours. Any of these clouds would be gone by mid-
morning. Winds will increase during the day today and be out of the
northwest. The strongest winds will be at MPV and EFK where gusts up
to 20 KTs are possible. Winds will decrease again tonight and
generally go calm or terrain driven. LLWS may develop tonight at RUT
as surface winds go light despite stronger winds aloft continuing.
There will be some high clouds passing through the area but they
will generally stay at or above 20,000 ft.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Per coordination with fire specialists for fuels and because of
the the expected weather today, a Red Flag Warning has been
issued for the Southern Greens and Lower Connecticut River
Valley. While these areas will see the most impactful fire
weather, fire weather concerns exist across the region.

The most critical time period will be from mid morning through
mid afternoon when there will be an overlap of gusty northerly
winds and low relative humidities. Winds will generally gust in
the 15 to 25 mph range, though localized gusts up to 30 mph are
possible. The strongest winds will be in eastern Vermont.
Relative humidities will drop to between 20 to 35 percent, with
the lowest values in southern and eastern Vermont. The
combination of low relative humidities and gusty winds will
promote increased potential for rapid fire spread with any fires
that may start. Additionally, dry fuels in the western
Champlain Valley and another period of relative humidity values
below 30 percent will pose fire weather concerns. Winds will
not be as strong as in Vermont so fire weather concerns are a
little less.

Fire weather concerns remain elevated for tomorrow, though not
to the level of today. While winds are expected to gust
slightly higher, relative humidities will be a bit higher.
Minimum relative humidity values will generally be in the 30 to
40 percent range, though localized areas of southern Vermont
should see values fall into the upper 20s. Northerly winds will
gust between 15 to 30 mph.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
     evening for VTZ034-035.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Myskowski
FIRE WEATHER...Team BTV