220
FXUS61 KBTV 041104
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
704 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the North Country through much
of the week, resulting in little or no rainfall, aside from an
isolated terrain driven brief shower mid week. Hazy skies will
continue for the next couple days due to lingering wildfire
smoke. Temperatures will generally be around and slight above
normal through for most of the week, though there will be
limited humidity and decent cooling overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 109 AM EDT Monday...Surface ridging will continue to be
responsible for our dry weather streak through the early portion
of this week. Some patchy fog, despite not having any rain over
the last few days, has begun to develop along the Connecticut
River Valley and portions of the Adirondacks. Canadian wildfire
smoke is the culprit for fog development with all other signs
pointing to no fog. Increased cloud condensation nuclei from the
smoke acts as a binding agent, similar to butter and eggs in
cooking, for water molecules. As it cools overnight, these ccn
collect and condense the moisture more easily than normal air
molecules, leading to enhanced fog development. Fog should
dissipate by the usual early morning hours with smoke still
lingering into the daytime. Wildfire smoke will linger
throughout the day today with Air Quality Alerts for all of
northern New York and northern Vermont through midnight tonight.
Southerly flow will help temperatures and dewpoints rise a few
degrees for the first half of the day with seasonably warm
conditions. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s in
northern portions of the area and in the mid to upper 80s in
southern Vermont. A weak cold front will attempt to pass through
the region from the north this afternoon resulting in a wind
shift to the north. The front as it pushes south will be
moisture starved and passing into an already dry air mass which
will limit any precipitation chances. However, enough frontal
forcing may be enough to eke out a brief terrain driven shower
in the Adirondacks and/or St. Lawrence Valley. Though most
locations will not see any rainfall as PoPs are below 25%. As
the front moves south, winds may briefly become breezy,
particularly on Lake Champlain up to 15 mph, but will weaken
quickly after. The front will stall across southern Vermont this
evening a return to cool overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.
There is cleaner air to the north into central Quebec and
depending on how far south the front pushes, areas near the
international border may briefly get into that cleaner air,
though smoke resurgence will return overnight.

With the presence of wildfire smoke, fog may be present again in
the usual cold hollows and river valleys tonight. Though given
the distance from our last rain event, it is becoming harder and
harder for fog to develop in the overnight. However, smoke
always acts as an aid to fog, so the fog forecast for tomorrow
remains challenging.

Similar conditions to Monday will be felt on Tuesday. A stalled
weak cold front will set up across southern Vermont allowing
for continual northerly flow increasing the flow of wildfire
smoke into the region. Hazy and seasonably warm conditions will
be the main theme for Tuesday. Winds will continue to be weak
and terrain driven for the most part. Lingering frontal forcing
across the Adirondacks and southern Greens may once again be
able to eke out a brief shower and/or a thunderstorm in the
higher terrain. However, as we will remain under the ridge of
high pressure, most locations will miss out on the rain with
PoPs still only 25-30% in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 109 AM EDT Monday...Tuesday night will be another
seasonably cool night with lows in the 50s. Good radiational
cooling looks to be likely again Tuesday night with calming
winds. Wednesday looks to keep the trend of the early week with
seasonably warm temperatures and a brief terrain shower or two
in the Adirondacks and southern Greens. Northerly flow will help
keep any waa at bay until after this period with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and relatively low humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 109 AM EDT Monday...High pressure will continue to shift
eastward, allowing south flow to develop across our region. The
result will be a gradual warming trend through this period. While
Thursday`s highs will mainly be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, each
subsequent day will add a few degrees, with mid 80s to low 90s
common by Sunday and Monday. Luckily, dewpoints will mainly remain
in the 50s to around 60F through much of the period, so humidity
will remain somewhat comfortable. Overall chances for any
precipitation will remain fairly low, but a weak upper trough may
allow a few thunderstorms to develop Thursday afternoon,
particularly over the higher terrain. Otherwise, anticipate dry
weather to prevail.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours with generally light and variable winds. The
main impact for aviation will continue to be smoke/haze from
Canadian wildfires. This will restrict visibilities to 5-6SM at
most terminals for the next 24 hours. Localized IFR in valley
fog at KSLK/KMPV early in the period should improve back to VFR
by 14z, but another round of fog will be possible again later
tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings