848
FXUS61 KBTV 200546
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
146 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rainfall and cool conditions will prevail across the region
today into this evening. Dry weather returns Thursday and will
continue for much of the week, with temperatures trending warmer
towards the weekend. The next widespread precipitation chances
arrive on SUnday, with the potential for a few thunderstorms as
well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper level shortwave will continue
to bring chances for light rainfall to the region today. Rainfall
overnight has been having a hard time reaching the ground with such
dry air at the surface, with most locations only receiving a trace
to a few hundreths of rain so far. As the shortwave progresses,
shower activity will continue throughout the day today, with the
better chances for precipitation across southern Vermont and
portions of the Adirondacks, although rainfall amounts will
generally be a third of an inch or less in these areas. Cool
conditions are expected throughout the day given plenty of cloud
cover and light rain, with high temperatures only climbing into the
60s to low 70s. Rainfall will quickly taper off this evening as the
disturbances passes, with chilly overnight lows in the 40s to low
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday...Another stretch of dry conditions and
seasonably warm temperatures will return for Thursday and Friday as
high pressure builds into the region. High temperatures Thursday
will climb into the mid and upper 70s across the region, with
temperatures a few degrees warmer on Friday with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s. In addition to the seasonably warm temperatures,
sunny skies will help make for a stretch of pleasant late summer
days. Overnight low temperatures Thursday night will also be on the
cool side, dropping into the 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 123 AM EDT Wednesday...Friday night into Saturday will feature
return flow reestablished after a long hiatus. A high amplitude
pattern will allow for deep southwesterly flow and a slower frontal
progression. With plenty of dry air to displace, dewpoints will
still remain relatively comfortable in the 50s, although about 60 in
the St. Lawrence Valley. Max temps will climb into the 80s over the
region under incoming high clouds and fair weather cumulus.

By Sunday, the funnel of moisture between an unseasonably strong
upper low and Atlantic ridging will set up overhead. Rain chances
increase as waves of moisture with diurnally driven instability
produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Although rain
chances should decrease Sunday night as the upper low lifts north
and instability wanes, an embedded shortwave will round the base of
the upper low and become negatively tilted. This will help keep the
moisture plume from sliding too far to the east underneath a
modest mid-level dry slot. With partial clearing, we should
destabilize well with cooling aloft and have plenty of strong
synoptic forcing due to the incoming vort max. Both Sunday and
Monday, about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be present. So we`ll
have to keep watch for the remaining ingredients for how storms
take shape.

Beyond Monday, we`ll settle into a cool pattern with showery
conditions. Several embedded shortwaves will track within the broad
upper trough over the eastern US well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Light returns on radar across northern
New York and Vermont, some of it virga, is extending east, but
with the heaviest precipitation to our south. Rain will linger
through about 15z to 18z as the axis of precipitation sags
southwards. Rain will be most persistent at KSLK and KRUT, but
will also be likely at times for KMSS/KPBG/KBTV/KMPV. Ceilings
currently range at or above 7000 ft agl, and will trend towards
2000-5000 ft agl approaching 12z with the lowest values across
southern areas. Winds throughout the period will mainly be
southeast to south, except northeast at KMSS with speeds between
3 to 9 knots, except up to 12 knots at KPBG and KBTV from 15z
to 22z Wednesday. Skies will trend clearer towards 06z Thursday,
and so some fog will likely begin to develop.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes