755
FXUS61 KBTV 080228
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
928 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy conditions continue this evening with mountain snow
showers also possible. Quieter weather will return for Saturday
with surface high pressure briefly ridging over the area.
Moderate snowfall is expected Saturday night as a low pressure
system passes south of our area. The beginning of next week will
feature quiet weather, with additional chances for
precipitation later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 926 PM EST Friday...Have increased pops/qpf and snowfall
for northern Dacks into parts of the central/northern Greens
late tonight into early Sat. This included some low likely pops
with snowfall generally a dusting to 1 inch possible associated
with s/w energy and pocket of better mid lvl moisture, per
cooling cloud tops on the latest GOES-16 IR sat imagery.
Otherwise, rest of fcst in good shape with some minor tweaks to
hrly temps and winds.

Previous discussion below:
Breezy conditions will continue into the evening, then die down
overnight. Some mountain snow showers will continue to be
possible as the flow remains out of the northwest. Minimum
temperatures will dip into the teens above zero areawide. Much
of the day Saturday will feature quiet weather with surface high
pressure briefly ridging over the area. Maximum temperatures
will reach the mid to upper 20s. Later in the day Saturday we`ll
see an increase in clouds ahead of next approaching system,
which will impact the region Saturday night. A low pressure
system will track from the Ohio river valley, then south of our
region. Precipitation will spread into our region from the
south. We remain on the cold side of this system, therefore can
expect snow as the precipitation type. High snow ratios are
anticipated, meaning that the snow will be light and fluffy.
Looking like a pretty low impact event as the snow is also
expected to fall during the overnight Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Highest snow totals are expected to be across southern
and parts of central Vermont. Have issued a winter storm watch
for those areas, with a general 5 to 8 inches of accumulation
expected. Areas outside of the winter storm watch will see
around 2 to 5 inches of snow. Minimum temperatures will again
range through the teens above zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Friday...Some snow will linger into the
morning on Sunday, but come to an end by the afternoon. Maximum
temperatures will range through the 20s on Sunday afternoon.
Quiet weather will continue into Sunday night and a secondary
cold front crosses the area bringing some additional mountain
snow showers and colder temperatures as lows dip into the single
digits above zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Friday...The forecast for Monday features some
lingering snow showers Monday morning, but mainly dry weather
as surface high pressure builds into the region. High pressure
should remain in control into Tuesday making for a cool morning
on either side of 0. South winds and the increasing sun angle
should put us back in the 20s by Tuesday afternoon. Things could
be somewhat warmer Tuesday night into Wednesday as a weak upper
vort pivots southeast through the region alongside a barely
definable 1020mb low. It could drive some snow showers, but
activity appears minimal. A reinforcing surface high shifts
overhead, and should keep the next system well south of the
region.

There`s fairly good agreement on the next system arcing up the
Appalachians Thursday in to Friday. This should have a modest
surge of moisture associated with it, and drive widespread snow
northeast across Vermont and northern New York. The upper vort
and associated dynamics appears modestly strong, but it is
rather far out. Given this is a low tracking up the
Appalachians, we`ll have to be wary of exactly where it ends up
going and whether it decides to track overhead. There is no
downstream blocking, so this system will race up and away fairly
fast.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings will
persist through the period with the main weather impact to
aviation operations being continued WNW wind gusts this
afternoon upwards of 30kts. Overnight snowfall was rather light
in density and with these winds, periods of MVFR visibility are
occurring due to blowing snow. Gusts should abate below 20kts
later this evening towards midnight so the frequency of BLSN
should diminish as well. Winds will be much lighter from the WSW
Saturday, generally less than 8kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Definite SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for VTZ010-011-018>021.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Storm