454
FXUS61 KBTV 050252
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
952 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread snow will continue to move into the region this
evening, with multiple rounds of snow through early Friday.
Winds will become gusty as well, likely producing areas of
blowing and drifting snow. Unseasonably cold weather will follow
for the first half of the weekend before moderating early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 941 PM EST Wednesday...Snow has been pretty unimpressive
so far, and more intense snowbands have remained south of our
region down across central NY and southern New England. Surface
winds remain gusty out of the south, also hampering snow growth.
Have backed off a bit further on pops and qpf to reflect
current trends. Overall, the storm total still looks ok.
Previous discussion follows.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the entire
area, with the exception of the Champlain Valley and northern
St. Lawrence Valley through early Friday morning. Expected
snowfall amounts will generally be 1-3 inches in the broad
valleys, with 3 to 8+ in the higher in the higher terrain.
Snowfall accumulations and gusty winds will lead to areas of
blowing and drifting snow, making for hazardous travel
conditions this evening and tomorrow.

Low pressure centered to the north of the Great Lakes will
continue to trek eastward, bringing widespread snowfall to the
region, with precipitation already entering northern New York.
Snowfall will continue to overspread across the region through
the overnight, although strong southerly winds will limit
precipitation in the Champlain Valley with shadowing off the
higher terrain. Snowfall totals will generally be between 3 and
8 inches for most locations, with locally higher amounts in the
higher terrain and 1 to 3 inches in the Champlain. Temperatures
will remain pretty steady overnight with southerly flow, in the
20s to lower 30s. With such cool air, precipitation will be all
snow overnight. A brief period of rain/sow mix will be possible
in the Champlain Valley tomorrow afternoon with temperatures
right near or slightly above freezing. Cold air moving in behind
the cold front associated with the clipper will lead to
steepening lapse rates, and the potential for some convective
showers and periods of briefly heavy snowfall. In addition to
the snowfall, gusty winds are expected with this system. Strong
southerly winds will continue tonight, before lessening early
Thursday morning with the low to our north, but will strengthen
again Thursday afternoon from the west/northwest as the low
continues to push eastward. The snow character will be fairly
fluffy, generally 13-17:1 throughout the event. This snow
character and breezy winds will lead to areas of blowing and
drifting snow, making for hazardous travel especially during the
Thursday commutes, so use extra caution if you`re planning on
traveling and be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions.

By Thursday night, widespread precipitation will come to an end
behind the frontal passage, although upslope showers will bring
additional accumulations to the western slopes of the Greens
and Adirondacks. Overnight lows will drop into teens across most
of the region as cold air moves in behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 421 PM EST Wednesday...Snow will taper to the summits
while moisture thins on Friday. There`s another vort max that
will swing southeast into the region on Saturday, but how much
moisture will be around to squeeze anything out is questionable.
We`re talking 0.10" PWATs which is also in the 10th percentile
for PWATs. Given how cold it is, the DGZ will be fairly low to
the ground. So it won`t take much to produce some flurries with
single digits to teens. Combined with a steady breeze, wind
chills in the Adirondacks and parts of eastern Vermont could
fall below 0 as people wake up Saturday. These temperatures are
about 10 to 15 F below normal for this point of the year. It
won`t warm much during the day, with mainly 20s across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 421 PM EST Wednesday...Another clipper type system will
follow on Sunday. This one will likely be a bit weaker and
translate east much faster. This should produce a light coating
of snow, though rain may mix in if it lingers long enough. The
following cold front appears unlikely to make it too far south
before the next system arrives late Monday morning. However,
there is a rather large degree of spread. Rain appears the more
likely outcome as temperatures rise into the 40s, and have noted
a simple rain-snow mix for now as we transition above freezing.
If the warm EC is correct, then there will not be any snow to
start and we`ll transition into a rain event. Model uncertainty
expands beyond the surge of precipitation on Monday afternoon.
Additional precipitation is likely, but the nature of it will
depend on how far east a larger 500hPa shifts and when cold air
arrives.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Expect highly variable conditions at all
TAF sites over the next 24 hours as a clipper system moves
through. The system will bring several rounds of snow
interspersed with dry periods. Visibilities will be
predominantly IFR within snow, then conditions will improve to
MVFR/VFR in between waves of snow. Have timed in two waves of
snow that will affect the area over the next 6 hours - first
wave is currently over near the International Border and about
to exit to the northeast. This wave is bringing IFR snow to KEFK
and KMSS at the beginning of the TAF period. Behind that wave,
expect a break in snow for a few hours and some lifting of
ceilings to MVFR/VFR levels, although visibilities may remain
lower due to blowing snow. The next wave of snow is currently
over southern Vermont and poised to arrive in KRUT between 00Z
and 01Z, then spread into central VT and northern Adirondacks
around 02Z-03Z, and then move to northern Vermont between 03Z
and 05Z. After 12Z, expect continued snow showers, but
intensities will diminish some and visibilities may improve to
MVFR levels.

Expect gusty winds from the south this evening, with turbulence
and wind shear. Gusts will peak in the Champlain Valley between
25 and 30 knots. Winds will diminish and shift to variable
directions after 12Z as the center of a low moves just to our
north. Between 15Z and 21Z, expect winds to become westerly and
increase in intensity going into the evening.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect tonight. South winds
continue to be breezy, sustained at 20 to 30 kt with gusts of 30
to 45kt this evening. These south winds will continue overnight
tonight, with a bit of a lull possible early Thursday morning.
Winds will then switch to the west/northwest, but remain gusty
to around 30 kt thereafter. Waves of 3 to 6 ft are expected
during the periods of strongest winds.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-011-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ029>031-
     034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Duell
MARINE...WFO BTV