655
FXUS61 KBTV 191447
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
947 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Other than a few lingering snow showers or flurries, Sunday morning
will remain dry. Snow will spread over mainly central and southern
Vermont late Sunday and Sunday night before shifting east Monday
morning. Dangerously cold conditions are expected through mid week,
with wind chill values dropping to 10 to 20 below zero.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 944 AM EST Sunday...A few flurries are lingering in parts
of the Adirondacks but elsewhere, conditions are dry. Some sun
has broken through in many areas and should continue for a few
hours before clouds move in from the southwest. The cold front
has tracked south of the region now and everywhere is seeing
northwest winds. The cold air advection will keep temperatures
relatively steady during the day before they drop this evening.
Overall, the forecast was in good shape and few edits were made.

Previous discussion...A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
place for Rutland, Windsor, and Orange Counties from 1 PM this
afternoon to 7 AM Monday. Snow amounts of 3 to 7 inches are
expected during this time frame, which could make for hazardous
travel tonight and Monday morning.

The cold front continues to march across the region early this
Sunday morning and currently stretches from roughly Saint Johnsbury
to Middlebury to Schroon Lake. Temperatures behind the front are
mainly in the teens and 20s, with low to mid 30s south of the
boundary. Snow showers continue over portions of the northern Greens
and Northeast Kingdom, and a few flurries are approaching the St
Lawrence Valley, but this activity should cease by daybreak.

Additional cooling is expected through the morning hours as the
front makes its way southward, along with some breaks in the cloud
cover. Temperatures won`t rebound much this afternoon though, and
highs will only be in the teens and 20s.

For the snow event...models are showing consensus in bringing the
low center off the Mid Atlantic coast this afternoon, and then
quickly moving it northeast overnight, tracking it very near or
perhaps just to the north of the 40N/70W benchmark. With the
aforementioned cold front driving a colder and drier airmass south
into our region, there still looks to be a fairly tight northward
gradient to the snowfall associated with the coastal system. The
best frontogenetical forcing and associated mesobanding is still
expected to remain to our south, stretching from western CT/MA
through southern NH and into Downeast ME. Our southern counties will
be right on the fringes of this mesoband, and this is still where
the most snow is expected in our CWA. Snow should quickly spread
northward late this afternoon, becoming moderate to briefly heavy at
times this evening. With very cold air in place and favorable
moisture/forcing in the dendritic growth zone, expect a fluffy snow
with snow ratios 18-20:1 in our southern VT counties. Areas further
north will be further displaced from the best forcing, and drier air
will be harder to overcome, so it may take a while for snow to
accumulate, though snow ratios will still be around 16:1. The
steadiest snow should occur this evening, and snowfall rates may
approach 1 in/hr in Rutland/Windsor/Orange Counties at times.
However, the low will quickly move to our east after midnight, and
cold dry air will rapidly infiltrate into our region, bringing the
snow to a rapid end. Far northern/western areas such as the St
Lawrence Valley and western Adirondacks will likely see little to no
snow, perhaps only for a few hours. Areas over southern/eastern VT
will have the most persistent snow and should pick up 3 to 7 inches,
with the highest amounts in the higher terrain of the southern
Greens and down toward the lower CT Valley. For the areas in
between, including the Champlain Valley, Northeast Kingdom, and
central VT, snow amounts will mainly be 1-3 inches, with locally
higher totals possible above 1500 ft. Winds will remain blustery
from the north/northwest through the event, resulting in areas of
blowing and drifting snow, which may serve to further hamper travel,
even in areas that don`t receive much snowfall. Anyone traveling
Sunday night or Monday morning should give themselves a little extra
time to reach their destination safely.

With snow exiting to the east by Monday morning, the main story for
the holiday will be bitterly cold conditions. The morning will start
out with air temperatures for most locations in the -5F to +5 range,
and don`t expect it to warm up much through the day as we`ll see
strong cold air advection. Even though we`ll have partly to mostly
sunny skies in a lot of places, highs will only be 5 to 15 above
zero. Combined with west/northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph, wind chills
will remain near or below zero for much of the day. The mountain
summits will be dangerously cold as wind chills will remain 25 to 35
below zero. Anyone planning on recreating outdoors should take
precautions against the extreme cold, or delay their plans until
conditions improve.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 356 AM EST Sunday...The main story for Monday night onward will
be the dangerously cold conditions as an arctic air mass settles
into our area. Lows Monday night/Tuesday morning will be between 0
and -10 degrees F, with some locally colder readings over sheltered
hollows in the Northeast Kingdom. Winds Monday night will start off
light, then increase Tuesday morning as pressure gradient tightens.
Tuesday afternoon looks quite gusty as forecast soundings
suggest deep mixing from the surface through to near 700 mb.
Have ramped up gusts during the day Tuesday to the 15 to 25+ mph
range. With temperatures only topping out in the single digits
to mid teens Tuesday, expect bitterly cold wind chills near or
below zero throughout the day. Gusts will end around midnight
Tuesday night, and lows Wednesday night will again be between 0
and -10F.

In addition to the cold weather, anticipate a lake effect snow band
from Lake Ontario to extend eastward, with the northern and eastern
fringes making it into our forecast area. Latest observed
temperature data over Lake Ontario off Rochester is 1.6C. With 825
mb temps dropping to below -20C, surface to 850 delta T will be over
20 deg C, which suggests ample instability to support a lake effect
snow band. In addition, depth of low level moisture in our NY
counties will be between 5 and 10kft, so should be able to sustain a
good lake effect band Monday night into Tuesday night. Low level
flow will be predominantly westerly, which will keep the best
accumulations south of our forecast area, but the band could briefly
angle into southern Saint Lawrence, southern Franklin, and into
Essex County NY late Tuesday as a trough axis approaches from the
west. Overall however, our NY counties will remain on the northern
and eastern fringes of the band, and will just pick up a localized
few inches of snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 356 AM EST Sunday...Brief ridging building in Wednesday will
keep the area mainly dry, although can`t rule out some lingering
lake effect snow downstream of Lake Ontario. Highs Wednesday will be
in the single digits to mid teens, although winds will be lighter
than Tuesday with high pressure building from the south. We do
remain on the northern periphery of the anticyclone, so still
expecting some breezy winds that will create bitter wind chills, but
wind gusts will generally be around or under 15 mph.

The core of the coldest air will exit the area Thursday, and
temperatures will begin a moderating trend as southwesterly return
flow intensifies. There are a few chances for some light snow
showers Thursday onward as shortwave troughs rotate through, though
lack of deep moisture will keep any snow light and generally
unimpactful. By this weekend, we`ll see temperatures warm back up to
normal, or even slightly above.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Mainly VFR/MVFR early in the TAF period,
though local IFR at KSLK/KEFK. This will persist through 15z,
then ceilings should lift to VFR at all terminals thereafter.
Conditions will worsen from south to north from 20z onward as
snow spreads over the region. Ceilings will lower to 1200-2500
ft and visibilities 2-4sm, especially after 00z. Best chances of
IFR conditions will be at KRUT/KSLK/KMPV. A cold front has
cleared the region as of 12z Sun, and winds will remain out of
the north/northwest around 10 kt through the period.

Outlook...

Martin Luther King Jr Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Monday for VTZ010-011-019>021.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Hastings