798
FXUS61 KBTV 070109
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
809 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching northern New York will bring an end to the
potential for ice jam flooding as below freezing conditions return
over the weekend. Snow showers will be possible along the front,
followed by gusty winds behind the front. Additional hit or miss
snow showers will develop Friday afternoon and evening while wind
gusts remain high across Vermont and northern New York. A few more
weather systems will cross east with additional short rounds with
scattered snow showers. After the last one crosses late Monday, a
stretch of warm and quiet weather will arrive.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 645 PM EST Thursday...The secondary cold front is pushing
through and temperatures are quickly dropping behind it. They
are expected to be below freezing region-wide by midnight. This
should put an end to any new ice jam formation. A line of snow
showers has been moving east across northern New York but it
has been weakening a bit. It will continue to move east and
upslope snow showers will also develop later this evening.
Overall, the forecast is in good shape and few edits were made.

Previous Discussion...Breezy southwest to west-southwest flow
has developed over New York ahead of a cold front moving southeast
towards the area. This front will move east towards the St. Lawrence
River Valley around 7 PM, push east of the Champlain Valley about
midnight, and then exit east of Vermont about 4 AM Friday.
Conditions range from the 30s to mid 40s across the region at this
time. Behind the cold front, temperatures will return into the teens
to mid 20s, which will bring the ice jam flood potential due to
river rises to a close. Frontal forcing is not strong, but in
tandem with orographic forcing, snow showers will develop just
ahead of the wind shift out of the northwest. By morning, snow
showers will taper off to the Northeast Kingdom.

Mainly dry conditions outside lingering activity in the NEK is
expected Saturday, but partial sunshine and steep low-level lapse
rates will drive some instability across the region. Additionally, a
low-level jet will remain in place between strong pressure gradients
promoting gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph across much of the region. The
potential for mixing appears a bit stronger across eastern Vermont,
with gusts up to 50 mph likely. Unidirectional west-northwest
flow up to 800mb may allow some lake effect showers from Lake
Huron move into Vermont Friday afternoon. This will coincide
with a strong upper low with 500mb heights down to 507 dam and a
favorable position to the left exit region of the upper jet to
its south. A subtle surface trough will also slide east sometime
Friday evening. Dry air and lack of a stronger frontal feature
may preclude activity from producing truly heavy snow that would
reduce visibility, but there could be some gusty snow showers
on top the already breezy conditions Friday afternoon. Still
light accumulations up to 2 inches could take place, mainly
along and just south of the international border, with locally
4-5 inches over the northern mountains.

Temperatures on Friday will be cool, but the March Sun angle should
allow the broader valleys to get above freezing, while higher
elevations and sheltered locations remain in the mid 20s to lower
30s. The gusty winds will certainly make it feel colder. Between
Friday morning and then the overnight hours into Saturday, it will
feel closer to the lower 10s to single digits. The actual
temperatures as people wake up will be similar to Friday morning,
with teens to lower 20s. With yet another upper trough and
reinforcing surface front arriving by Saturday morning, intermittent
snow showers will likely persist into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 PM EST Thursday...Cyclonic and confluent flow on Saturday
will keep winds on the gusty side up to 40 mph on the eastern slopes
of the Adirondacks and Greens. Steep lapse rates should be
sufficient for deep mixing and downsloping momentum transfer, though
925-850 mb winds aloft are not particularly impressive with the main
upper-level jet to the south of the area. Temperatures will remain
slightly below normal for both Saturday and Sunday with highs near
30 and lows overnight in the mid- teens to mid-20s, respectively.
With moisture on the decline Saturday, only a few tenths of an inch
of snow are expected in the northern Greens via orographically
lifted snow showers. By Sunday, some streamers off the Great Lakes
could provide enough moisture under cyclonic flow and upsloping to
eek out a dusting to an inch of snow across northern New York and
north/northeast Vermont through Sunday evening. Unfortunately, this
weekend looks rather cloudy with the northwest flow, but some might
still see some glimpses of the sun Saturday afternoon in the
Champlain Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 329 PM EST Thursday...The cooler air mass this weekend will be
replaced with a noticeably warmer air mass to begin next week. A
brief clipper system on Monday will help to increase temperatures
from the south as it rides along the Canadian border. Brief showers
are possible across northern New York and northern Vermont. The
system clears the area Monday night with continued southerly flow
with temperatures steadily rising to the 40s with strong warm
advection through Wednesday. Lows will steadily rise into the upper
20s area-wide Tuesday and Wednesday accordingly. Temperatures next
week may be conducive for decent maple sugaring given the current
forecast. While temperatures will be increasing next week, dew
points will remain near freezing which should lead to gradual snow
and ice melt rather than a rapid melt. With no appreciable rainfall
expected in the period, the threat for any new ice jams remains low,
but we will be monitoring conditions going forward. Nearing the end
of the week, models show a more synoptic feature developing into the
region, though there still remains some uncertainty in the long wave
pattern and low track.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Conditions are mainly a mix of VFR and
MVFR due to ceilings around 2000-4000 ft agl. Snow showers will
move along and ahead of the west-northwest wind shift between
NOW and 10z from west to east.about 00z to 06z. Snow showers
will produce 1-5 SM visibilities as they move east of Vermont by
about 08z-10z. Beyond 12z, there will be partial clearing of
skies.

In terms of the winds...brisk WNW winds of 10-15 kts with gusts
to 25-30 kts overnight with a further increase of winds at
sustained 13 to 18 knots with gusts 25 to 35 knots aft 12z
Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>021.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...SLW