Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
828 FXUS61 KBTV 140602 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 202 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stray shower will be possible early today, but weather across Vermont and northern New York will continue to be dry this week. After a couple seasonable days, temperatures will begin to climb back into the 80s ahead of a mainly dry cold front on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 201 AM EDT Sunday...The next in our series of moisture starved embedded disturbances within a broad upper trough will shift southeast during the day. A few showers sparking along this feature will gradually diminish this morning with skies clearing out later today. Anticipate temperatures climbing into the 70s with a nice northwesterly breeze. With clearing skies and surface high pressure building again, we`ll likely observe plenty of fog tonight into Monday morning. Temperatures will remain lower 40s to lower 50s. North flow will keep cool air advecting into the region, and another beautiful day in the 70s is expected on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 201 AM EDT Sunday...For Monday night into Tuesday, additional fog is anticipated. However, lower crossover temperatures and another day removed from appreciable rain will result in more limited fog, despite similar temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s. The overall pattern of high pressure will be unchanged on Tuesday, but thicknesses begin to increase. So temperatures will climb into the mid 70s to near 80 during the afternoon. Relative humidity values will begin to trend towards 35 percent during the afternoons, but winds will remain very light. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 201 AM EDT Sunday...Generally dry weather continues through the extended forecast period. Developing Rex block extending from the Great Lakes region into the southeastern U.S. will allow for temperatures to trend above seasonal averages for mid-September. Under mostly sunny skies, valley highs on Wednesday should reach the lower 80s, and trend into the mid-80s for Thursday. Humidity levels will be modest, with 2-m dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60F. Global ensembles indicate Rex block breaking down late in the weak with height falls across Quebec and northern Ontario. This should result in a sfc cold front pushing across the region with cooler temperatures by Friday. Limited available moisture suggests the front may pass through dry in most locations, and kept associated PoPs in the slight chance category for Friday (around 20%). Cool and crisp conditions expected for next weekend as sfc high pressure builds sewd from northern Ontario and is expected to be our controlling weather system following the cold frontal passage. May be some opportunities for patchy frost away from the Champlain Valley, especially Saturday night into early Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Periods of LIFR fog expected at SLK/MPV early this morning, and possible at times at KEFK. Otherwise, looking for SCT-BKN050-070 conditions as a weak 850mb trough translates from NW- SE across the region. Winds will generally be light thru the TAF period, generally trending NW at 5-8kts during the balance of the daylight hours on Sunday. With fewer clouds, better chances for prolonged radiational fog, especially 06-12Z Monday, at KSLK and KMPV. Outlook... Monday: VFR. Patchy BR. Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Banacos