457
FXUS61 KBTV 101145
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
745 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected to continue for the North
Country through Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region.
Highs in the 90s are expected for broader valleys with some
locations warming into the mid 90s by Tuesday. Conditions will
remain mainly dry through Tuesday before a front brings more
widespread thunderstorm chances, some possible severe, by mid week
and a relative cool down for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 254 AM EDT Sunday...Another hot and dry day is in store for
today as 925mb temps continue to indicate high temperatures in the
mid 80s to upper 80s with the valleys reaching the low 90s. Skies
will remain mostly clear outside of some afternoon cumulus,
especially east of the Greens.

Sunday night might see some patchy fog in the favored areas, but
beyond this, conditions will be quiet warm as most areas will stay
in the 60s overnight.

Monday will see a continued increase in hot temperatures as more
areas will reach low to mid 90s. With it being the third day
straight of 90 plus in the valleys, beyond being a heat wave, this
will be the better chance for a potential Heat Advisory as the
cumulative affect on vulnerable populations and those participating
in physically exerting activities will be most affected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 254 AM EDT Sunday...Tuesday looks be the hottest day of the
period as most areas will reach low to mid 90s. The Champlain and
St. Lawrence Valleys have the better chance to reach the upper 90s
as the blended model guidance continues to look like it is under
forecasting the afternoon highs just a bit. Seeing that it will be
the fourth day straight for the valleys, the heat risk looks to be
the highest on this day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 254 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure and the heat dome over our
area finally breaks down on Wednesday as a cold front moves through
the region. Though models are in disagreement on timing of the
front, so some valley locations, especially in Vermont could see a
fifth straight day of 90 degree weather before advection of cooler
weather. As for the front itself, models still indicate that front
will break down as it moves through the region. Still there are good
chances for convection, especially across New York, as humidity
increases over the region. Beyond this, temperatures drop back into
the upper 70s to low 80s for the back half of the week before
another potential warm up again next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will bring light winds and clear skies for the day
today. The few spots with BR/FG overnight have lifted and all
terminals are IFR. Mostly light winds all around the region with the
possibility for a few gusts related to the lake breeze for BTV/PBG.
MSS should also see winds reach into the mid teens. &&

.MARINE...

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record daily high temperatures are likely on Monday, August 11,
and Tuesday, August 12. Below are some of the records in
jeopardy of being broken:

Max Temp Records

August 11th - Forecast|Record (Year)
KBTV         KMPV        KMSS        KPBG        KSLK
             90|90(2016) 94|93(2016) 92|91(1970) 89|93(1944)

August 12th - Forecast|Record (Year)
KBTV         KMPV        KMSS        KPBG        KSLK
95|93(2002)  91|89(2021) 93|91(1988) 93|90(2007) 89|93(1944)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Verasamy
NEAR TERM...Verasamy
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Langbauer
CLIMATE...WFO BTV