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FGUS74 KBRO 192025
ESFBRO

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
225 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic
outlook for the Los Olmos Creek basin in Deep South Texas...

The Brownsville Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Los Olmos Creek
basin in Deep South Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to
provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available
on the internet.

In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance
the creek could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days.
Example: The Los Olmos Creek near Falfurrias has a flood stage of 11 feet.
There is a 50 percent chance the Falfurrias forecast point will rise above
1.8 feet during the next 90 days.


Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
   Valid [12/18/2024 - 03/18/2025]

 Location    FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
 --------    -----   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
 Los Olmos Creek
  Falfurrias  11.0   1.8  1.8  1.8  1.8  1.8  2.2  2.4  2.9  3.6


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated
using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and
stream flow data. These numbers also take into account the current conditions
of the creek and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of
probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with the long-range
planning decisions can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet
at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=bro

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of
every month.

$$

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