003
FXUS64 KBRO 152225
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
525 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected for Deep South
Texas through the middle of next week, with precipitation chances
below 10% expected for most days.  A Pacific trough out to the west
is expected to eject over the Southern Plains this weekend, which
will bring a cold front towards our area around Sunday. While it is
uncertain at this time, current guidance is showing that this cold
front will stall north of Deep South Texas, bringing no relief for
hot temperatures. However, if guidance changes and the front does
make it all the way down to our region, we could see a slightly
higher (20% or less) chance of precipitation Sunday due to frontal
convergence.

A gradual warming trend is expected to continue into next week as
high pressure dominates the region and warmer, humid air is advected
towards the ejecting trough.  Highs are expected to be in the lower
90s tomorrow. They will then warm to the mid 90s by Saturday for the
Lower Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s for the Western
Ranchlands. Moderate Heat Risk also returns for the weekend and
continues through at least Tuesday as humidity levels rise. Lows
will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s throughout the forecast period.
Winds will be light to moderate, veering to a southeasterly
direction by the weekend.  If the front happens to make it all the
way to Deep South Texas, the wind could shift to a north-
northeasterly direction on Sunday.  Skies are expected to remain
mostly sunny to partly cloudy.

Rip current risk is expected to increase this weekend into early
next week. These rip currents could be life threatening, and
swimmers will need to remain situationally aware and stay in
shallow water if unsure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Through 00z Friday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the 00z TAF cycle with diurnal driven clouds increasing in
coverage during the day and fading towards evening/night.

Northeast winds with speeds between 5-10 kts are expected to
continue through much of the TAF period. Winds will trend towards
light and variable to calm towards night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Conditions should be favorable through next week with light to
moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and seas between 2-4 feet.
A cold front is expected to approach the area on Sunday, which could
tighten the pressure gradient and increase coastal wind speeds.
Current guidance is showing that the front is expected to stall
north of our area, but this could still bring a slightly increased
chance (up to 20%) of coastal showers on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             71  89  73  91 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               66  91  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 69  94  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         66  93  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  84  78  86 /   0  10  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     71  87  72  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma