185
FXUS64 KBRO 161844
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
144 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

For the short term period, ridging will remain in place overhead
through much of the period and begin to slowly slide eastward
Thursday evening. At the same time a mid/upper level trough will dig
into the Great Basin allowing low pressure to develop at the surface
across the High Plains. While the high pressure in place will
maintain warm and dry conditons over us, the increased surface
pressure gradient will lead to breezy conditions tonight into
Thursday. Winds will become more enhanced on Thursday due to 40-45
kt low level jet developing though at this time winds look to remain
just shy of Wind Advisory criteria, but will continue to watch
trends. If a Wind Advisory is needed, it will likely be for portions
of the mid to lower RGV. Along with gusty winds, humidity values
will fall below 30 percent across portions of the Rio Grande Plains
into the Brush country and below 40 percent further east. This could
warrant a Fire Danger Statement along and west of I-69E.

Temperatures will be near normal for overnight lows and above normal
for daytime highs. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 60s across
the Ranchlands to the upper 60s in the Valley both tonight and
Thursday night. High temperatures tomorrow will top out in the upper
80s to around 90 degrees near the coast with areas of the Rio Grande
Plains rising into the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

The presence of a low-level jet over the coastal region could result
in high than currently forecasted winds if it is able to mix down.
Should this occur, a Wind Advisory is like to be needed for Coastal
Cameron and Willacy counties. The GFS and the ECMWF have the the low-
level jet around 40 to 45 knots. However, the low-level jet does
appear to move off towards the east late Saturday.

During the course of the weekend, an upper-level trough will move
through the Central Plains, which will help to push a cold front
through Central Texas during the weekend. However, based on the
current model guidance, it does appear that this front will stall
out to the north of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The
stalled out front will still act as a region of increased forcing
and allow for the convergence of low-level moisture. This
combination could help foster the development of showers and
thunderstorms for the area starting late Saturday through Sunday.
However, rain chances are currently around 20 percent at most, as
there is still some uncertainties with the forecast at this point.

As for the temperatures, the low temperatures for the long term
period will generally range from the upper 60s to low 70s, while the
high temperatures will be in the range of upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southeasterly
winds will remain breezy today with gusts to around 25 kts. Winds
will increase early thursday and by the afternoon see gusts to to
around 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Tonight through Thursday night...Deteriorating conditions
are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast tonight into
tomorrow. Small Craft Caution conditons this evening will give way
to Small Craft Advisories beginning at 1 AM tonight through the
period as the pressure gradient increases across the region

Friday through Next Wednesday...Hazardous conditions are expected on
Friday through Sunday due to the elevated winds and seas mainly due
to the tightening of the pressure gradient. However, there is a low-
level jet could mix down and result in further elevated winds and
seas that will keep the winds above 20 knots for an even longer
period of time, but that situation will need to be continued to be
monitored. Adverse conditions are expected to remain after late
Sunday through Monday as winds and seas begin to subside resulting
in a period of Small Craft Exercise Caution. Some showers and
thunderstorm are also possible during the weekend due to a stalled
out front to the north of the Lower Texas Coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             70  86  73  87 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               67  89  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 70  92  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         67  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      71  79  73  80 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     68  84  71  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...68-McGinnis