785
FXUS64 KBRO 300729
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
229 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

An elongated mid to upper-level trough extending from the Ohio River
Valley into Southern Texas will gradually shift further east through
the period. Weak 500mb ridging looks to build into the region by
this afternoon. This pattern will continue to support fair weather
across the area. High temperatures today and Tuesday will be
slightly above normal, in the low to mid 90s. The drier air in place
will keep heat indices below 100 degrees and will support a minor
heat risk through Tuesday. Lows tonight will be near normal, in the
upper 60 to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

There remains a persistent signal for increasing rain chances over
Deep South Texas Wednesday through Saturday with a 500mb low
pressure weakness developing across Texas and the western Gulf of
Mexico. As for the tropical wave over the Caribbean that the NHC has
been tracking, this wave continues to have 50 percent chance of
development later this week as environmental conditions remain
conducive for the gradual development. Most models continue to show
this tropical entity moving north into the Gulf of Mexico mid to
late in the week which will continue to drive moisture northward
towards the lower Texas coast. Even with the persistent signal for
increasing rain chances, GFS and ECMWF moisture profiles and PoPs
differ greatly with ECMWF continuing on the higher end of moisture
content (daily pwats averaging 0.4-0.75 inches higher). The National
Blend of Models (NBM) continues to lean on the higher end of the
spread of rain probability and today`s forecast will continue
leaning in this direction even with the GFS having been the better
model of choice this "wet season". One common aspect of the previous
and current model suite is the timing of the best areal and highest
rain coverage which continues to show Friday and Saturday as the
days for highest rain probabilities as well as amounts.

Temperature guidance for the long-term continue to trend slightly
above normal Wednesday and Thursday before trending lower towards
normal Friday-Sunday as the rain chances increase.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Light winds and mostly clear skies prevail across Deep South Texas
early this morning. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24
hours. Light and variable winds will continue overnight through
around mid-morning. Easterly winds may increase slightly later
this morning into the afternoon with the sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Today through Tuesday...Favorable conditions are expected to
prevail through the short term period with high pressure across
the Gulf. A weak pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast
will support generally light winds and low seas.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Broad surface low pressure
developing over the Bay of Campeche mid to late in the week to
provide a persistent moderate northeast wind. These winds will
allow for a gradual building of seas exceeding 5 feet and possibly
approach 7 feet next weekend. There is a medium (40-50%) chance
for exercise caution and a low (10-20%) chance of Small Craft
Advisories Friday-Sunday for the Gulf waters. Sea state could even
be higher if a tropical wave over the Western Caribbean seas
forms into the Tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center
continues to monitor this wave for potential tropical development.
There remains a 50 percent chance for tropical cyclone formation
in the next 7 days. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  72  90  73 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN               94  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 99  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         97  70  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  80  86  79 /   0   0  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  72  89  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...63-KC