707
FXUS64 KBRO 162334 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
634 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

New day, similar story...Upper level ridging will maintain hot, near-
record breaking temps into this weekend. Gusty conditions today east
of I-69C (gusts up to 35 mph observed at BRO) will diminish this
evening. Similarly gusty tomorrow, if not a bit less. These south-
southeasterly winds allow for temperatures to remain elevated under
upper level ridging. High temperatures tomorrow a touch cooler than
today. This will raise heat index values tomorrow higher than
todays, with maximum apparent temperatures up to 111 possible. NBM
has been overforecasting high temperatures and dew points for this
regime. Blended high temps with 1:1 NBM and CONSShort, lowering
temps by ~a degree. A majority of the CWA tomorrow is under a Major
Risk (level 3 of 4) of heat-related illness.

Continue to be mindful of heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity
during peak heating, stay hydrated, and LOOK before you LOCK.
Children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles.

There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at local beaches through
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Oppressively hot temperatures will continue across the region
through the period as ridging remains in place over the Gulf through
Tuesday. Wednesday a cold front will push into central Texas,
possibly getting as far south as the Ranchlands and with more zonal
flow aloft and a surface ridge building across the Plains allowing for
a slight cool off beginning Wednesday.

Heat Advisories will be likely for the first part next week,
especially Monday and Tuesday. Heat Risk will generally remain the
in Major category (level 3 out of 4), though some pockets of
Extreme Level 4 out of 4) are possible through Tuesday. Wednesday
much of the area will fall back into a Moderate Heat Risk (level
2 out of 4) and Minor Risk (level 1 out of 4) on Thursday and
Friday.

While the forecast will remain generally dry, Wednesday evening into
the overnight thunderstorms developing off the Sierra Madre could
potentials make it to the Rio Grande before dissipating, but chances
and confidence remain low at this times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Southeasterly winds continue to diminish this evening and MVFR
ceilings have already formed over KBRO, likely to spread to KHRL
over the next several hours. Am anticipating lighter southeasterly
winds overnight with cloud decks lowering to IFR at KBRO and
KHRL, perhaps by 04-06 Z. MVFR cloud heights are also anticipated
at KMFE later this evening with a TEMPO included for the lower
chance that ceilings lower to IFR between 07Z and 11Z. Breezy
southeasterly winds pick back up in the morning, gradually
transitioning skies to VFR by the afternoon with gusts up to 26
knots possible across all terminals.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Tonight through Saturday night...

Moderate south-southeast winds and moderate seas will persist
throughout the short term. Small Craft should Exercise Caution
conditions will be present, even borderline favorable Saturday
morning, as winds increase slightly during the overnight hours today
and tomorrow.

Sunday through Thursday...Slightly adverse marine conditons
are expected through much of the period with Exercise Caution
expected due to elevated winds. There is a potential for periods of
Small Craft Advisory conditions, mainly Monday into early Tuesday
due to higher winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  92  79  92 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               77  95  77  95 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 79  98  79  97 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         77 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  85  79  85 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  90  77  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...65-Irish