414
FXUS64 KBRO 052321 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
621 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Mid-level ridging will remain in place over west Texas into the
Desert Southwest through the forecast period. Will continue to see a
general weakness along the coast which will maintain chances for
showers and thunderstorms, especially along the sea breeze each day.
Highest chance for any convection will be today and tomorrow with a
30-40% chance today and 20-30% for Wednesday. Some of this activity
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent
cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds and even some small hail.
While widespread severe weather is not expected can not rule out a
few isolated stronger to severe cells. For the remainder of the
period, we still keep low rain and thunderstorm chances in the
forecast each afternoon but those chances will be generally 15% or
less.

Near to slightly above normal temps will continue into next week,
with heat indices reaching 105 to 110 degrees each day. A few
locations, especially across the inland coastal counties, may
briefly have heat indices exceed 110 degrees. While at this time,
the timeframe and coverage remains below Heat Advisory criteria,
can not rule out the possibility of a Heat Advisory being needed,
especially on Thursday and Friday. At the very least, SPSs will
likely be needed. Heat risk will remain Moderate (level 2 of 4)
to Major (level 3 of 4) daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF
period with southeasterly winds and a chance of convection early
this evening near MFE. Another round of convection is possible
along the sea breeze Wednesday afternoon from east to west into
the early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail on the waters off
the lower Texas coast. Wave heights will remain at 1 to 2 feet with
4 to 6 second periods. Isolated showers and thunderstorms each day
could lead to localized areas of elevated winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  96  79  96 /  10  20   0  10
HARLINGEN               75  98  76  99 /  10  20   0  10
MCALLEN                 79 101  79 102 /  20  20   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         77 101  77 103 /  20  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  89  81  89 /  10  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  93  79  94 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...56-Hallman