622
FXUS64 KBRO 052312 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
612 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Key message:

* Tropical Storm Milton formed in the Southwest Gulf.

* We upgraded the rip current risk for Sunday to high and issued a
  coastal flood statement for tonight with an upgrade to a coastal
  flood advisory at noon on Sunday.`

Area wide rain chances will taper off this evening through Sunday,
lowering to below mentionable status by Sunday night. Rain chances
will linger over the marine areas, however, and a few showers could
still affect coastal areas and Southeast Cameron County on Sunday.

Newly formed Tropical Storm Milton in the Southwest Gulf will tend
to consolidate nearby weather, ultimately pulling moisture with it
by Sunday night as it begins to head northeast. That said, we will
see a slight strengthening of northeast winds along the immediate
coast on Sunday, and slightly moreso over the Gulf. The increase in
winds will bring higher waves to the coast, and not only will rip
current risk increase to high Sunday and Sunday night, but water
runup on the beaches will increase, possibly making it to the dune
line by high tide at around 9:23 PM Sunday evening.

As rain chances end on Sunday, skies will clear and high temps will
rebound a few degrees as we see a few rays of afternoon sun. Mid to
high 80s this afternoon will turn into upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday
afternoon. Low temperatures will correspondingly decrease slightly,
from the lower to mid 70s tonight to a few upper 60s to lower or mid
70s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Tropical Storm Milton
as it moves towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico by mid week,
potentially already as a hurricane by Monday. As this system works
further east, expect high pressure and subsidence to continue to
build across Deep South Texas. This keeps the long term period
rather quiet locally. Outside of a northerly breeze on Monday, a
weak pressure gradient will maintain generally light winds Tuesday
through Saturday. Temperatures nudge a couple degrees warmer
Monday into Tuesday, before gradually cooling off each day, with
more lows in the 60s each morning. The combination of seasonal
highs, gradually cooling lows, lower humidity, and light winds
into late week will make for a very comfortable trek into mid-
October.

Along the coast, is a slightly different story. While temperatures
will range from the mid or upper 70s each morning to mid 80s each
afternoon under abundant sunshine, beach and surf conditions will
likely remain dangerous into mid to late week. Life-threatening
rip currents and coastal run-up during high tides will be possible
into Thursday with a persistent easterly swell as Milton churns,
strengthens, and works east. Lighter winds may help conditions
smooth or improve as the week progresses and Milton works out of
the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for HRL and MFE through the
TAF period and at BRO through the night. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible that could lead to brief MVFR
conditions. After daybreak BRO will fall to MVFR with rain
chances continuing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Tonight through Sunday night...Moderate northeast winds and moderate
seas will continue tonight into Sunday, but both will trend slightly
higher late Sunday. This will mean that small craft will need to
exercise caution by Sunday afternoon, with possible low end small
craft advisory conditions developing for the offshore waters. While
northeast winds are forecast to decrease slightly Sunday night,
elevated wave heights offshore may require a small craft advisory
extension.

Monday through Saturday...The National Hurricane Center is
monitoring Tropical Storm Milton as it moves towards the eastern
Gulf of Mexico by mid week, potentially already as a hurricane by
Monday. Breezy northerly winds are possible Monday, followed by
light onshore flow Tuesday through Saturday due to a weak pressure
gradient and building high pressure along the western Gulf.
Ongoing Small Craft Advisories will potentially extend through
Monday and into late Tuesday, with Small Craft Caution conditions
hanging into Thursday. Swell from Milton should drop off by
Thursday and lighter winds Tuesday through Saturday will help
improve marine conditions as the long term progresses.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             76  87  75  89 /  50  50  10  10
HARLINGEN               72  88  70  91 /  30  40   0  10
MCALLEN                 74  92  73  94 /  20  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         72  91  70  91 /  20  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  86  80  86 /  50  50  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     75  86  75  87 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX... through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT Sunday through late Sunday
     night for TXZ451-454-455.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM CDT Monday for
     TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...68