805
FXUS64 KBRO 071126 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
626 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue across deep south
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through Sunday night as mid-level
ridging remains persistent and an upper level high pressure
maintains northwest flow aloft as it regresses southwestward into
Mexico. A tightened pressure gradient will continue breezy
conditions this weekend, with southeasterly winds of around 5-15 mph
at night and 10-20 mph, gusting to 15-25 mph, during the day,
potentially up to 30 mph across the mid and lower RGV. Slightly
above average high temperatures continue with mid to upper 80s along
the coast and 90s to lower 100`s inland. In comparison to today,
Friday, widespread highs in the lower 100`s are likely, generally
west of I-69 C on both Saturday and Sunday. Factoring in the
elevated dewpoints resulting from breezy onshore southeasterly
winds, heat indices, or "real feel" temperatures, of at least 105-
110 degrees are anticipated across the entire inland County Warning
Area (CWA) for Saturday and Sunday. There is the potential of
Special Weather Statements (SPS`s) for portions of the RGV and
northern ranchlands as afternoon heat indices could top 111 for
several hours. Chances are lower for a Heat Advisory on Sunday, but
not completely out of the question, depending on how forecast
dewpoint and air temperatures trend. Therefore, much of the
middle/lower RGV and eastern portions of the northern ranchlands
(Brooks and Kenedy counties) are expected to experience a major
(level 3/4) heat risk, including Zapata on Sunday, while the
remainder of the CWA experiences a moderate (level 2/4) on
Saturday and Sunday. Pockets of extreme (level 4/4) are possible
on Sunday. Lows are expected to range between the mid to upper 70s
across most inland areas while lower 80s are expected for
portions of the lower RGV and SPI.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The intense heat and breezy conditions described above are likely to
continue into Monday and Tuesday as a mid-level high pressure passes
eastward over deep south Texas. As upper level ridging moves
offshore western Mexico into the middle of the week, a mid-level
shortwave riding the ridge`s northern and eastern fringe is
currently anticipated to bring much needed relief in heat as clouds
build and chances of showers and thunderstorms increase to a low to
medium (20-30%) chance on Tuesday afternoon and evening, ahead of a
frontal boundary sagging southward into south-central Texas.
Probabilities rise to a low to medium (20-50%) chance on Wednesday.
The shortwave gradually lifts to the northeast into Thursday, but
ridging will remain weakened, generating a low to medium (20-40%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday through Saturday,
but becoming more limited in probability and inland extent. There
remains uncertainty in probability, timing and organization of
convection as global model solutions diverge on the southward extent
of the shortwave and frontal boundary as well as whether or not
additional shortwaves pass over our region.

High temperatures in the 90s and 100`s continue Monday and Tuesday,
resulting in continued 105-110 heat indices as well as moderate to
major heat risks, with pockets of extreme. Additional rounds of
SPS`s and/or Heat Advisories remain likely. Relief is anticipated by
Wednesday and onward, with high temperatures remaining in the 90s
across inland deep south Texas and 80s at the beaches, yielding
mainly a moderate heat risk for the remainder of the long term.
Overnight lows are expected to range from the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Minor adjustments made to the previous issuance of TAFs. MVFR to VFR
will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Light winds
around sunrise will become breezy during the day before diminishing
to moderate levels beginning around sunset. Generally partly cloudy
and rain-free skies are also anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A tightened pressure gradient over the western Gulf is likely to
continue to produce moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and
moderate seas (3-4 feet) through Monday night, resulting in
additional rounds of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. Chances
of showers and thunderstorms increase to a low to medium (20-50%)
chance next Tuesday into Saturday along with gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds and moderate seas (3-4 feet) as a trough
influences the lower Texas coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             93  81  94  81 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               96  78  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                100  81 100  81 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        101  78 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  82  88  82 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  79  92  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$