857
FXUS64 KBRO 131726
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1226 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

 - A Rip Current Statement continues for the High Risk of Rip
   Currents until 7 PM this evening, followed by a medium risk
   tonight into tomorrow.

 - A Coastal Flood Statement goes into effect from 9 PM tonight
   until 7 AM tomorrow morning as minor coastal flooding is
   possible.

 - Chances of rain increase to a low to medium (20-40%) chance
   tomorrow as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
   bring brief periods of rain, possibly heavy at times.

 - Sunny and dry conditions resume Tuesday night through the
   remainder of the work week, warming near average temperatures
   to above average by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Throughout tonight and tomorrow, a weak mid/upper level trough is
expected to generate isolated to scattered convection over the Gulf
as it approaches Deep South Texas, bringing a low (20-30%) chance of
rain to coastal areas late tonight. Throughout the morning and
afternoon hours tomorrow, probabilities of rain across the region
increase to a low to medium (20-40%) chance as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms develop along the seabreeze boundary, with
the highest chances along and east of US-281/I-69 C across the
middle and lower RGV. Additionally, short range high resolution
models indicate PWAT values increasing to above average (around 1.7-
2.0 inches), so brief periods of moderate to heavy rain are possible.
Following, chances of rain decrease to less than 10% tomorrow night
through the rest of the work week as ridging and subsidence aloft
resume. The next chance of rain, currently a low (20-30%) chance,
may be next weekend in association with a trough passing to our
north.

Near to slightly above average high temperatures increase to above
average (up to around 5 deg F warmer) later this week and into the
weekend as winds become southeasterly to southerly ahead of the next
trough along with mostly clear skies; highs increase from upper
80`s/lower 90`s inland to mostly lower/mid 90`s, even into the upper
90`s further west, while mid 80`s continue at the coast. Mainly
above average overnight lows persist with 60`s and 70`s inland and
near 80 deg F at the coast.

A high risk of rip currents continues the Rip Current Statement
until 7 PM this evening and a Coastal Flood Statement, for minor
coastal flooding, goes into effect from 9 PM tonight until 7 AM
Tuesday morning at the Lower Texas beaches due to the combination of
easterly swell with 2-4 foot waves and 7 second periods, decreasing
to 5-6 seconds throughout tonight into tomorrow. Minor coastal
flooding is possible within a couple of hours either side of high
tide at 1:58 AM tonight at SPI. A moderate risk of rip currents
returns tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

All terminals are currently reporting 5-10 knots southeasterly
winds underneath partly cloudy skies, gusting to 14 knots at KHRL.
Expect winds to increase to 11-14 knots, gusting to 15-20 knots,
over the next few hours, followed by light to gentle winds beyond
sunset this evening. Easterly winds are expected to remain gentle
tomorrow along with a PROB30 included for possible MVFR visibility
due to brief passing showers. Otherwise, conditions remain VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Mostly gentle to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds continue
along with slight to moderate (2-3 ft) seas. Probabilities of rain
increase to a low to medium (20-40%) chance throughout this
afternoon and evening into tonight before decreasing to a less than
15% chance tomorrow through Friday. Chances of rain may increase
over the weekend. A few thunderstorms are possible as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  88  71  88 /  20  30   0   0
HARLINGEN               70  89  66  90 /  10  30   0   0
MCALLEN                 73  91  70  93 /  10  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         69  92  67  92 /   0  30   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  85  78  84 /  30  30   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     74  86  72  86 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...65-Irish