929
FXUS64 KBRO 101145 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
545 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Lingering rain chances are expected to decrease through the morning
as the upper-level forcing and mid-level moisture shift southeast.
Generally rain free conditions are expected by this afternoon across
Deep South Texas, though some light rain may continue offshore. As
the drier air moves in from the northwest, skies are expected to
become mostly sunny across Zapata and Jim Hogg counties this
afternoon, however mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected to
persist across the remainder of Deep South Texas. The lingering
cloud cover will likely keep high temperatures in the upper 40s to
low 50s this afternoon.

The latest deterministic model runs have trended slightly higher on
overnight low temperatures and cloud cover, with the notable
exception of the Canadian model, which continues to show the
potential for a light freeze across portions of the Northern
Ranchlands. The latest NAM and GFS runs are much warmer, with low
temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s across the CWA.
Probabilistic NBM guidance is still indicating a 50-60% chance for
low temperatures of 32 degrees or less across most of the Northern
Ranchlands. However, hourly NBM probabilities of freezing
temperatures peak around 20-25% at 7 AM Saturday morning and are
limited to portions of Zapata and Jim Hogg counties. The low
temperature forecast, and potential for freezing temperatures, will
likely hinge on the extent of cloud cover tonight. Given the current
suite of guidance, confidence in reaching Freeze Warning criteria of
at least 2 hours of freezing temperatures Saturday morning is fairly
low. For now we will keep the Freeze Watch for Saturday morning, and
continue to assess the potential for a freeze as additional guidance
comes in this morning.

Skies are expected to become mostly sunny Saturday, as winds shift
back to the southeast. This will allow for warmer high temperatures
Saturday afternoon, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s.

Strong winds and rough seas offshore will continue to produce
hazardous beach conditions along the Lower Texas Coast Through
Saturday morning. The High Risk of Rip Currents has been extended
and will now remain in effect until 6 AM Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

The pleasant weekend that develops towards the end of the short
term forecast period will continue for Saturday night and Sunday,
with warming temperatures and dry weather. Unfortunately, this
will all draw to a close as the weekend ends, with the passage of
a cold front anticipated for late Sunday. Over the course of the
following several days, developing inverted surface troughiness,
with subsequent closed low pressure along the Lower Texas Coast,
will produce generally overcast skies with isolated to scattered
patches of drizzle, light rain, and showers from Tuesday through
Thursday. This pattern will have the added effect of keeping
daytime highs and overnight lows in the near to slightly below
normal range during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Generally MVFR conditions are expected this morning as the last of
the light rain moves through the area. Rain chances are expected
to diminish by this afternoon, with overcast VFR to MVFR ceilings
lingering through the TAF period. Gusty northerly winds are
expected to continue through the day. Light northerly winds are
expected to develop at MFE overnight, while BRO and HRL remain
gusty.


&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Adverse marine conditions are expected to continue through Friday
night. Winds will begin to diminish Saturday morning before
shifting to the southeast through the day. Seas will be a bit
slower to subside, however favorable marine conditions are
expected to return by late Saturday morning. The small Craft
Advisory has been extended until 6 AM Saturday.

(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Initially favorable marine conditions Saturday night through
Sunday morning will quickly sour Sunday afternoon due to the
passage of a cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected along the Lower Texas Coast Sunday afternoon through
Thursday, especially for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to
60 nautical miles offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             50  41  57  46 /  80  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               49  36  56  42 /  60  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 51  40  60  45 /  30  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         52  37  59  40 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      52  44  58  52 /  90  20   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     50  38  57  45 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     TXZ248>251-351.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ130-132-
     135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...60-BE