348
FXUS64 KBRO 010740
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
240 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

KBRO Doppler radar shows convection exiting the BRO CWFA at this
time. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast for
extreme southern Hidalgo County today due to lingering decent
precipitable water values and the westward progression of
weakening Tropical Storm Chris into east- central Mexico, while
the remainder of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
remains dry. Rain-free conditions will persist tonight and through
Tuesday as 500 mb high pressure, centered over the Gulf Coast
states, strengthens.

Temperature-wise, with the aforementioned mid-level high gaining
strength, and dry weather with limited cloud cover occurring,
daytime highs will inch-up a bit and remain in the slightly above
normal range. Despite the relatively robust precipitable water
content of around 2 inches, more or less, heat indices will not
reach established HEAT ADVISORY criteria. As a result, will mention
heat index values in a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT today and likely
again tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The mid-level ridge remains anchored across the Southeast into
next weekend, before gradually shifting off the East Coast, with
surface high pressure building mid-this week and persisting into
next weekend across much of the northern Gulf. This will generally
lead to a fairly dry and gradually warming start to the long term
period across Deep South Texas, with an increasing chance of
rainfall next weekend and slightly lower temperatures. A few Heat
Indices may approach 110 degrees each afternoon Wednesday through
Friday. An isolated streamer or sea breeze shower or thunderstorm
cant be ruled out each day as well, but the best chance of rain
remains Saturday into Sunday. The NBM POPs are currently 20
percent near the coast on Saturday and 30 percent on Sunday.

All eyes are really on Days 5-7 and beyond, with Hurricane Beryl
potentially lurking somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. At this time,
it is still too early to lean one way or another, with a wide
spread in model guidance. General consensus among the experts at
the National Hurricane Center is Beryl will run into some wind
shear and likely downgrade before approaching the Yucatan late
Thursday into Friday. We may not know much more than that until
Thursday or Friday. Stay tuned to credible sources of information
this week like hurricanes.gov.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Convection is ending across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley, and MVFR to VFR will prevail through the overnight hours.
On Monday, VFR will prevail with light winds. Convection cannot
be ruled out, but it is forecast to be too isolated to warrant
inclusion in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Today through Tuesday...Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast winds
around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over
6 feet at 2:10 CDT/7:10 UTC. The Small Craft Advisory for the
Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore until 7
AM CDT this morning has been cancelled a few hours early, as Buoy
42020 indicates subsiding seas. Otherwise, light to moderate
winds and low to moderate seas are forecast along the Lower Texas
Coast through the period courtesy of high pressure.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...High pressure builds across the
Gulf mid-week and persists through the remainder of the week
before weakening over the weekend. Expect generally light to
moderate southeasterly onshore flow and low seas through Friday
with isolated streamer showers or convection at best. Beyond that,
all eyes remain on Hurricane Beryl, potentially somewhere into the
Gulf of Mexico next weekend. This could increase winds, seas, and
rain chances by Saturday. Stay tuned to credible sources of
information this week like hurricanes.gov.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  79  95  80 /  20   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               95  75  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 96  78  98  79 /  20   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         95  77  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  82  88  83 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     92  77  92  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...66-Tomaselli