028
FXUS64 KBRO 040354
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1054 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

High pressure over the desert SW will continue to build through the
week, maintaining hot and dry conditions in deep South Texas. A
relatively dry atmosphere behind a weak boundary passage on
Sunday will keep apparent temperatures early this week
suppressed, but don`t get your hopes up for reprieve. Along and
east of I-69C, apparent temperatures today and Tuesday around 110
degF leave a Moderate risk of heat- related impacts (level 2 of
4). As deeper layer moisture returns midweek, apparent
temperatures climb to 105-115, with highest temperatures expected
in the aforementioned corridor, bringing a Major risk (level 3 of
4) of heat related impacts. This may require issuance of Special
Weather Statements as apparent temperatures climb to 105-110 degF
each day, especially today and in the latter half of the week.
Heat Advisory conditions may be met in the latter half of the
week; this will continue to be monitored.

Despite mostly dry conditions, isolated showers/thunderstorms may
form along the seabreeze each afternoon through midweek (<30%).
Afternoon CAPE values of 2000+ J/kg are difficult to realize with
little upper-level support; a shortwave disturbance in the mid-
layers Tuesday allow the greatest chance (30% in counties along
the Gulf) for initiation along the sea breeze in the afternoon,
but severe or any showers beyond that have little support.

In all; hot, dry conditions and breezy afternoons continue. At lower
Texas beaches, there is a low risk of rip currents.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Mostly clear skies, VFR to prevail through the period. Diurnal
cycle of clouds and winds continues; moderate gusty (up to 30kts)
southeasterly winds this evening will lessen overnight. Very low
confidence in MVFR cigs at BRO and HRL this morning between
10-14Z, but worth a mention. Winds become gusty tomorrow afternoon
again with sfc heating.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Slight seas and gentle to moderate southeasterly winds bringing
favorable marine conditions will prevail through the period. Small
Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible on the Laguna Madre
during the afternoons with thermally induced winds. Otherwise,
isolated showers are possible on the Gulf waters every afternoon
through midweek, with the greatest chance (40%) Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             98  80  97  79 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN              101  76 100  75 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN                104  79 103  79 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        104  77 105  78 /  20  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  81  89  81 /  10  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     95  78  94  78 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK