995
FXUS64 KBRO 280540 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

 - Moderate to Major (Levels 2 to 3 of 4) Risk of excessive heat
   through Saturday.

 - Mostly rain-free conditions expected through Saturday; rain
   chances increase to low to moderate (20-50%) Sunday into early
   next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Mid-level ridging will continue to build over central TX through the
end of the week, bringing subsidence and drying out the upper layers
of the atmosphere. While this will reduce rain chances to generally
less than 10% through Saturday, an isolated shower or thunderstorm
each afternoon cannot be ruled out. Heat will be the main story to
close out the week as southeast winds maintain low-level moisture,
allowing for apparent temperatures to climb into the mid- to upper-
100s. Paired with near to slightly above average temperatures, this
will bring a Moderate (level 2 of 4) risk of heat-related illness to
a majority of the CWA, with pockets of Major (level 3 of 4) along
the Rio Grande. Friday and Saturday are expected to be the warmest,
with "feels like" temps of 111 or greater possible along US-77 in
Kenedy and Willacy counties, and near 110 in the mid-upper RGV.

By the end of the weekend, mid-level ridging will translate west and
allow for moisture return and provide forcing for an increase in
rain chances. In the latter half of Labor Day weekend into Tuesday,
guidance continues to suggest upper-level disturbances on the
periphery of the ridge, allowing a more supportive atmosphere for a
low to moderate chance (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. High
and low temperatures remain near normal, but apparent temperatures
dip a touch cooler with increased cloud cover and evaporation from
rain. Troughing over ECONUS may allow an elongated frontal boundary
to reach S TX and force precipitation further early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Light southeast winds and mostly clear skies prevail across Deep
South Texas early this morning. Southeast winds are expected to
become moderate (10 to 15 knots) with some gusts around 20 knots
will be possible in the afternoon. VFR conditions will continue
for the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Mid-level high pressure over central TX will allow for subsidence
and generally favorable marine conditions for much of the period.
Expect light (occasionally moderate in afternoon) south-
southeasterly flow and slight seas to prevail through Saturday. Low
to moderate rain chances (20-50%) return Sunday into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  80  95  80 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               97  76  99  76 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                101  80 102  79 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        102  78 104  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  83  89  82 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  78  94  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...63-KC