139
FXUS64 KBRO 111720
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

 - A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through tomorrow morning
   and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect through Sunday
   evening.

 - An influx of tropical moisture is expected to bring a low
   chance (less than 30 percent) for Tuesday.

 - Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal for the forecast
   period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

A mostly pleasant forecast is expected for Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley. Mid-level ridging is expected to linger over the
region through the duration of the forecast period, which will act
to hinder the development of showers and thunderstorms for most of
the forecast. The biggest chance for showers and thunderstorms are
on Tuesday. An area of tropical moisture is expected to move from
the Bay of Campeche towards the region. This surge in moisture will
result in low chances (less than 30 percent) during the afternoon on
Tuesday. Outside of that chances for rain will be very low (less
than 10 percent), however that does not rule out a rogue shower or
two from occurring.

As for temperatures, the highs and lows for the forecast period are
expected to be generally close or slightly above normal for this
time of year. A benefit of the mid-level ridge over the region is
that more dry air will move into the area due to the subsidence from
the mid-level ridge. This will result in more dry air, which in turn
will keep the heat indices lower and thus the heat risk for the
forecast period will be minor.

Lastly, at the local beaches, an elevated risk of rip currents is
expected to persist through at least the middle of the work week. In
addition, elevated tides and swells could see a few periods of some
minor coastal flooding occurring around high tides.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at
all TAF sites. Light southeasterly to easterly winds are expected
to persist through the period. Some low-level clouds are expected
to move through the region as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected through the
forecast period. Light to moderate onshore flow with low to moderate
seas along the Lower Texas Coast as high pressure persist over the
Gulf. A surge of tropical moisture could bring a low chance (less
than 30 percent) of rain to the waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             70  89  72  89 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               65  91  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 68  94  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         65  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  84  78  84 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     70  86  71  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64-Katz