579
FXUS64 KBRO 302353 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
653 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the short term
period for all of Deep South Texas with medium to high
precipitation chances (40-80%) through Tuesday evening, and low
precipitation chances (20-30%) Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. Anomalously high moisture content will continue to be
transported via well established low level southeasterly flow,
with guidance indicated precipitable water values remaining
upwards of 2.25-2.50 inches through the forecast period. The 12Z
BRO upper air sounding measured a precipitable water value of 2.21
inches this morning, which is well above the 90th percentile
according to SPCs sounding climatology. Expect multiple rounds of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday
evening, with any activity capable of locally heavy rain given the
presence of high moisture content. Thunderstorms will be capable
of gusty winds upwards of 30-4 MPH and lightning.

Otherwise, expect below normal high temperatures and near normal
low temperatures. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue
through at least Tuesday evening along the lower Texas beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Moisture content remains elevated on Thursday across the region,
with guidance estimating precipitable water values around 2
inches. Subsidence will also begin to increase as high pressure
begins to build, which should limit any convective development to
be mainly confined to sea breeze activity, primarily during the
afternoon hours. As ridging continues to build overhead by the end
of the week and into the weekend, there should be fairly low (10%
or less) precipitation chances for the 4th of July holiday and
weekend. Near normal temperatures to slightly above normal
temperatures with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s across
the region, with highs in the mid to upper 90s along the Lower
Texas beaches. In combination with the humidity, heat index values
each afternoon will range from 100 to110 degrees. A minor to
moderate heat risk will prevail through the 4th of July holiday
weekend. Remember to practice heat safety if you are planning on
spending a prolonged period outdoors for any festivities or
outdoor activities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Unsettled conditions to continue through the period. Currently
VFR, although a low chance (>30%) of showers at all sites with
short-lived MVFR possible. Tuesday, isolated-scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms return as early as 11Z (most likely 13-16Z)
and will last through the afternoon. Lightning, locally heavy
rainfall, and gusty winds up to 40 kts are possible within any
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Low to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas will
prevail through the forecast period. Unsettled weather will
continue through at least Wednesday afternoon, with medium to high
chances (50-80%) through Tuesday afternoon and low chances
(10-20%) on Wednesday. Any thunderstorms will be capable of gusty
winds upwards of 40 knots, lightning, and heavy rainfall which may
result in locally enhanced winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             76  86  76  90 /  50  80  30  30
HARLINGEN               73  87  73  91 /  40  80  30  20
MCALLEN                 76  88  76  92 /  30  80  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         73  84  73  88 /  30  70  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  85  78  86 /  50  70  30  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  86  76  89 /  40  70  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...69-HK