575
FXUS64 KBRO 131118 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
618 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

 - A Coastal Flood Statement continues through sunrise and a High
   Risk of Rip Currents continues this evening.

 - An influx of tropical moisture is expected to bring a low
   chance (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.

 - Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above seasonal
   through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

An upper level ridge looks to remain over the central US through
mid week, generally supporting broad subsidence and dry air aloft.
An upper level closed low looks to rotate around the southern
periphery of the ridge Tuesday into Wednesday, which could briefly
increase forcing and mid level moisture across Deep South Texas.
This will present a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday.

Minor coastal flooding and strong rip currents will continue to be
a concern Monday, however the elevated astronomical tides and long
period swell responsible for these hazards will continue to
subside through the next day or so, with favorable beach
conditions likely to return by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Light winds and mostly clear skies prevail across Deep South
Texas early this morning. VFR conditions will continue for the
next 24 hours. Light east to southeast winds are expected to
persist through the period with slightly higher gusts this
afternoon. Light winds return later this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected through the
period, with light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and
moderate seas persisting through mid-week. Slight seas look to
return for the later half of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             89  75  88  72 /   0  20  40   0
HARLINGEN               91  71  88  67 /   0  10  40   0
MCALLEN                 94  74  91  71 /   0  10  40   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  70  91  68 /   0   0  30   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      85  79  85  78 /  10  30  30   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  74  86  72 /   0  20  30   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...63-KC