698
FXUS64 KBRO 101114
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
614 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Key Messages:

* A High Risk for Rip Currents remain in effect through Friday
  evening.

* A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 10 AM CDT this morning.

A continuation of the beach impacts for the lingering effects of
Hurricane Milton are expected as a High Risk of Rip Currents remains
in effect through Friday evening, and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in
effect until 10 Am this morning, with the possibility of needing a
Coastal Flood Advisory or Coastal Flood Statement tonight. The
elevated swell generated by Hurricane Milton will diminish over time
and the conditions along the beaches will improve with time.

With mid-level ridging over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley, and the environment having plenty of dry air, the short term
forecast period is expected to remain rain free with clear skies.
Winds are expected to generally be out of the northeast to east for
the period as well.

As for the temperatures, the highs for today and tomorrow are
expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Meanwhile, the low
temperatures are expected to be generally in the 60s, with locations
along the coast in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Through the weekend and into early next week the latest
deterministic models as well as ensemble means show a weak
pressure pattern along the Gulf South States extending west
through Texas. The atmosphere over Deep South Texas is indicated
to remain rather dry with limited deepening of Gulf moisture.
Matter of fact, pwats to remain near the 10% percentile (1 inch)for
early/Mid October. As a result, expect mostly sunny to partly
cloudy days and mostly clear night. Overall, a nice comfortable
and benign weather pattern prevails with warm (upper 80s to lower
90s) and modest dry days and mild (mid 60s to near 70) nights.
Winds remain light from the east to southeast.

As for a potential cold front next Tuesday or Wednesday, GFS has
backed off and the ECMWF shows a weak front oozing through the
region Tuesday. The National Blend of Models is favoring the GFS
solution at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Mostly VFR TAFs are expected to persist through the TAF period at
all TAF sites. Some morning shallow field fog is possible with HRL
most likely to develop some. The rest of the period should feature
light northeasterly to easterly winds and clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Today through Friday...Light to moderate northeasterly to
easterly winds. Swell periods and wave heights are expected to
continue to diminish as the effects of Hurricane Milton lessen
allowing for more favorable conditions to return.

Friday night through Wednesday...Weak pressure gradient to reside
over the Gulf waters this coming weekend and early next week. Light
east to southeast wind and slight seas to prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             89  69  87  70 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               91  64  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 94  67  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      85  77  84  76 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  69  86  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-
     454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...64-Katz