595
FXUS64 KBRO 121127 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
627 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

 - A Coastal Flood Statement is now in effect through sunrise
   Monday and a High Risk of Rip Currents are now in effect
   through Monday evening.

 - An influx of tropical moisture is expected to bring a low
   chance (30%) for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.

 - Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal for the forecast
   period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

An upper level ridge looks to remain in place over the central US
through mid week, with broad subsidence and dry air aloft
generally supporting rain free conditions across Deep South Texas.
A week upper level trough moving through the southern periphery
of the ridge may briefly increase forcing and mid level moisture
Tuesday into Wednesday. This will provide a low (30%) chance for
isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze Tuesday
afternoon.

Otherwise, warm temperatures are expected through the period,
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s this weekend climbing to
the upper 90s by the end of the week. The combination of long
period swell and higher astronomical tides will lead to minor
coastal flooding around high tide and increased rip current
strength for the next couple days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Very light winds and clear skies prevail across Deep South Texas
early this morning. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24
hours. Light southeast winds are expected to return later this
morning into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected through the
period, with light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and
moderate seas persisting through mid-week. Slight seas look to
return for the later half of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             89  73  89  75 /   0   0  10  20
HARLINGEN               91  67  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN                 94  72  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  68  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      85  78  85  78 /   0   0  20  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  72  87  74 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...63-KC