932
FXUS64 KBRO 221946
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
146 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 144 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Key Message:

-Below normal temperatures will be the mainstay through the short
term.

Today, abundant sunshine has quickly raised temperatures into the
50s across Deep South Texas. Tonight temperatures will cool into the
30s and 40s. A few spots across the northern Ranchlands may reach
the freezing mark for an hour or two. Will not issue a Freeze
Warning as areal coverage and duration remain minimal. Feels like
temperatures will fall into upper 20s across the northern Ranchlands
to upper 30s across the Valley. Dry conditions will prevail through
tonight.

On Thursday, a developing coastal trough will lead to increasing
cloud cover and rain chances. Best rain chances will primarily be
east of I-69C in the afternoon and evening. The rain and excess
cloud cover will keep temperatures cool with highs generally in the
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 144 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

A warming trend will continue for the Rio Grande Valley into the
weekend.  After a trough pushes out of the area Thursday, high
pressure will set in Friday and continue through the weekend,
resulting in pleasant temperatures and partly cloudy to mostly
cloudy skies. Precipitation chances are minimal throughout the
weekend, and highs should warm to around seasonal levels in the
70s/lower 80s throughout the Rio Grande Valley.  Low temperatures
are expected to warm from the upper 30s/lower 40s Friday night to
the upper 50s/ lower 60s Saturday night and remain in that range for
the duration of the long term forecast.

Early next week, an upper level trough begins to develop along the 
West Coast, but current model guidance is showing that the trough
may become a cutoff low and take a while to eject over the Central
Plains. This trough has the potential to bring a mild cold front to
our region next week. However, if it becomes a cutoff low as current
guidance suggests, the trough will remain to the west of our region
for a longer period of time and temperatures for our region will
remain warmer (in the 70s and lower 80s for high temperatures) for a
longer period of time before the next front.

As of now, the GFS and the Euro models are in agreement that the
cutoff low/slow ejection situation will happen.  Therefore, our area
is expected to stay warm through at least Wednesday, with a small
chance of showers around the coast as southeasterly surface flow
brings moisture ashore. However, if future guidance starts to show
the trough moving through quicker, we could see another cold front
as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through today with clouds increasing
tonight into tomorrow. Thursday morning, ceilings will begin to
lower with MVFR at BRO and HRL. Winds will remain light through
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Tonight through Thursday night...Marine conditions will
improve this evening and winds will remain light with seas of 3 to 5
feet. A coastal trough develops on Thursday and the increasing
pressure gradient will lead to elevated winds with seas rising to 3
to 5 ft and occasional 7 ft seas possible. Small Craft Caution will
be needed, and possibly a Small Craft Advisory for the tail end of
the period.

Friday through Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions may be
possible for the Gulf waters on Friday morning, but are expected
to improve throughout the day. Friday night and Saturday should
have mild marine conditions, with wave heights of 2-4 feet
expected. Conditions will deteriorate again on Saturday night
(with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible again) as winds
increase and turn southeasterly, but are expected to improve again
Sunday and stay favorable through mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             56  44  53  44 /   0  10  60  50
HARLINGEN               55  39  53  38 /   0   0  40  40
MCALLEN                 56  41  55  40 /   0   0  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         56  37  55  36 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      56  51  57  50 /   0  10  70  60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     55  44  55  44 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...68-McGinnis