954
FXUS64 KBRO 191118 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
618 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

An upper-level trough over the Rockies will move into the Central
Plains by Sunday, helping to push a cold front southeast through
Texas. This cold front looks to reach the northwestern portions of
the CWA Sunday morning, before stalling as it traverses the CWA
Sunday. Increased forcing along the front, combined with a moist,
unstable air mass this will likely support the development of some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day
Sunday.

With the trough shifting further east, the LLJ that has been sitting
along the coast for the past several days will likely weaken and
shift further east around sunrise this morning. This will likely
decrease the strength of the wind speeds and gusts mixing to the
surface today, however there is still a low potential for gusts
exceeding 40 mph late this morning and this afternoon. Given the low
confidence in reaching Wind Advisory criteria, will hold off on
issuing an advisory for now, and reassess after the 12z sounding.

Strong winds over the coastal waters will continue to support
elevated seas, and by extension, a high risk of rip currents through
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

An active weather pattern continues to be anticipated during this
portion of the total forecast. In the Sunday night through Monday
time frame, a weak cold front will approach, stall, and dissipate
within Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This will then
be followed by the approach and passage of a series of mid-level
disturbances riding within a generally west to east 500 mb flow
overhead. The cumulative effect of all of this will be a near-daily
shot of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the BRO CWFA, with the best chance for precipitation progged for
Monday and Tuesday.

Temperature-wise, above normal overnight lows and near to slightly
above normal daytime highs are also anticipated, courtesy, in
part, to a moderate to breezy generally onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

MVFR ceilings across area are expected to lift to VFR levels
by mid morning. Wind speeds and gusts will continue increasing
through the morning as stronger winds mix down to the surface.
MVFR ceilings will likely redevelop this evening, and wind gusts
are expected to become less frequent overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Strong southeasterly winds are expected to continue through
tonight, building seas to around 8 ft over the Gulf waters. Winds
will decrease Sunday as a cold front moves into Deep South Texas,
but likely stalls before reaching the coast. Seas will likely be
slower to respond, gradually subsiding late Sunday afternoon. The
Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Sunday evening.

(Sunday Night through Friday)
Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue along the
Lower Texas Coast through Sunday night due to an enhanced
pressure gradient. The approach, stall, and dissipation of a weak
cold front around sunrise Monday will weaken the gradient at that
time, allowing for more moderate marine conditions at that time
and through Tuesday. However, the return of an enhanced pressure
gradient Wednesday through Friday will result in Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions for
that time period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             87  73  86  73 /   0   0  30  20
HARLINGEN               89  70  88  69 /   0   0  30  30
MCALLEN                 92  74  90  74 /   0  10  40  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  72  86  71 /  10  10  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  73  81  72 /   0   0  30  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     85  72  85  71 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...60-BE