648
FXUS64 KBRO 070941
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
341 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Fairly quiet conditions are expected to continue across Deep South
Texas through the short term period. Southeasterly surface flow will
continue to advect warmer air and moisture into the region. High
temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 80s to low 90s
through the period while low temperatures range from the upper 60s
to low 70s tonight.

With Hurricane Rafael in the Eastern Gulf, and the NHC forecasting
the storm to make a westward turn over the next couple days, an
increase in long period swell is expected as early as Friday
morning, which will likely lead to adverse beach conditions. A High
Risk of Rip Currents is likely along the Lower Texas Coast Friday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Key Messages:

- Uncertainty increasing due to latest track of Hurricane Rafael

Outside of hurricane Rafael the forecast remains consistent with a
weak Pacific front moving into Deep South Texas Friday night and off
the lower coast Saturday. At this time, slight chance of rain and
slightly cooler (near seasonal) temperatures remain in the forecast
for the first half of the weekend. The latter half of the weekend
through next Wednesday, if the latest model and official Hurricane
center forecast track of Hurricane Rafael comes to fruition, Deep
South Texas can expect 500mb ridge to build over the region
providing fair weather with increasing temperatures.

Of course, we will be watching the track of Rafael carefully as it
moves slowly west across the Gulf of Mexico.  As mentioned yesterday
and continuing today is the common denominator that the official
forecast track and the latest models forecast show the cyclone
weakening considerably with dry intrusions and increasing shear over
the Central Gulf of Mexico.  One caveat in the this forecast is if
Rafael takes on a more southerly track, as some models show, Rafael
could avoid the dry air and shear, slowly down any weakening. In any
case, the current track maintains a "safe" distance east-southeast
of the Lower Texas coast. The closest approach of the center on the
3 AM advisory is approximately 190 miles ESE of the outer coastal
waters and 250 miles ESE of the mouth of the Rio Grande/SPI.  No
direct impacts at this time, and the current track as well as the
amount of weakening will lead to uncertainty in the forecast for
Deep South Texas, especially in regards to the severity of coastal
impacts. Regardless, increasing rip currents, high surf and the
potential for minor coastal flooding will be possible this weekend
and potentially into early next week due to increased swell and wave
heights. Please visit the National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov for the latest updates on Rafael.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Patchy areas of MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected over the area
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At press time, aerodromes in
Brooks and Jim Hogg counties are reporting OVC ceilings less than
1,000 ft, and HRL visibility is wavering around 5SM. These low
ceilings and any associated visibility reduction from fog and mist
are expected to primarily impact the northern portions of the
forecast area, however, patchy low clouds bringing MVFR or lower
ceilings cannot be ruled out at BRO, HRL, and MFE between now and
Thursday morning. This is highlighted in TAFs with the presence of
SCT low decks. Reduced visibility from fog is possible at all sites
surrounding sunrise, although confidence is not high enough to
include in the forecast package.

Any MVFR or lower ceilings are expected to lift Thursday morning
following sunrise, where VFR conditions are expected to prevail with
southeasterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Today through Friday...Generally favorable marine conditions are
expected through tonight with light to moderate southeasterly
winds and slight to moderate seas. Conditions will likely begin
deteriorating Friday as long period swell from Hurricane Rafael
begins to arrive, with seas building to 7-9 feet over the offshore
Gulf waters by Friday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed for the offshore Gulf waters Friday afternoon.
Small Craft Should Exercise Cation headlines will likely be need
for the offshore and nearshore Gulf waters Friday morning.

Given the light winds, conditions look to remain favorable on the
Laguna Madre through the period.

Friday night through Wednesday... Marine conditions are likely to
continue on a deteriorating trend, as building seas/swells arrive
Friday night from Hurricane Rafael. A cold front moves off the coast
early Saturday and will combine with broad circulation of the
cyclone producing gusty north-northeast winds. The hurricane is
expected to slow down its westward progress but also begin to weaken
through the weekend and early next week with Small Craft Advisories,
for high seas, likely persisting into early Monday.  Depending on
the future track and strength of this cyclone will determine on fast
marine conditions improve after Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             87  73  89  74 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               89  69  89  69 /  10   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 92  73  93  72 /  10   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  71  91  68 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      84  78  84  76 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  73  86  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...60-BE