822
FXUS64 KBRO 142335 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
635 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - Precipitation chances are expected to decrease to almost zero
   tonight, and remain low throughout the week.

 - Temperatures should gradually warm to above normal levels
   through the weekend with the return of Moderate Heat Risk later
   in the week.

 - A cold front may approach the area next Sunday, but it is
   uncertain whether it will reach Deep South Texas or stall to
   the north. This could potentially increase rain chances for
   Sunday, but confidence is not high at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Conditions are expected to dry out tonight as a weak coastal trough
to the southeast diminishes and high pressure takes hold again
across the region.  Precipitation chances are expected to remain
below 10 percent for all of Deep South Texas throughout the week
into the start of the weekend.  A Pacific trough out to the west is
expected to eject over the Southern Plains later this week, which
will bring a cold front towards our area around Sunday.  It is
uncertain at this time whether the cold front will make it to Deep
South Texas or stall to our north, but the frontal convergence (if
it makes it to our area) could create a low chance for precipitation
on Sunday.

A gradual warming trend is expected throughout the week as high
pressure remains dominant and warmer air is advected towards the
Pacific trough to the northwest.  Highs are expected to be slightly
above seasonal tomorrow in the lower 90s and warm to the mid 90s by
the weekend for the Lower Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s for
the Western Ranchlands. Some areas could see a Moderate Heat Risk
this weekend as humidities climb towards the end of the week.

Lows will be slightly cool for the western and upper portions of
Deep South Texas the next few days with lows in the mid-60s for
these areas and lows in the lower 70s for the Rio Grande Valley
tonight and tomorrow night. Throughout the week, lows will slightly
warm so that most areas will be experiencing lows in the 70s by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
diminishing winds overnight and few clouds into Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Conditions should be favorable throughout the week with light to
moderate easterly to southeasterly winds. A cold front is expected
to approach the area on Sunday, which could have a potential
negative effect on marine conditions, but confidence is not high at
this time.  Wave heights of 2-4 feet are expected throughout the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             71  88  71  88 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               67  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 71  93  69  93 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         69  93  66  93 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  84  77  85 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     71  86  71  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...56-Hallman