142
FXUS64 KBRO 281722 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1122 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

The most recent surface analysis indicated a cold front well
south of the BRO CWFA. In the wake of this front, a zonal flow
will persist overhead at the 500 mb level throughout the short
term forecast period. This will provide Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley with dry weather today and through the first
half of the weekend.

Temperature-wise, an onshore flow will gradually redevelop and then
persist as surface high pressure shifts towards the east. This will
produce gradually warming daytime highs and overnight lows, with
values running at well above normal levels for this time of year.

Finally, relatively benign marine conditions will produce a Low Risk
of rip currents at the local beaches through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

While a pleasant start to the Long Term forecast for Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. There are two troughs that are
expected to move southward during the period. The first of which is
expected to be weaker and will move over the Desert SW and NW Texas
during the day on Sunday and Monday. This set up will allow for
southerly winds in the range of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph
possible. As a result, a Wind Advisory could be needed for the
region. Given that previous model trends have continued to show
these strong winds, there is a higher degree of confidence with this
forecast, with the Lower Valley to be most likely affected by the
stronger winds. With the southerly winds, the warm air advection
into the region will allow for temperatures to be above normal for
March. The high temperatures for Tuesday are expected to be in the
90s for most of the region as the second stronger and larger trough.
This second trough is expected to push a cold front through the
region during on Wednesday. While the air behind the front is not
expected to be much cooler, the air is expected to be much drier.
With minimum relative humidity values in the teens for most of the
region, which could make for Elevated Fire weather concerns on
Wednesday afternoon. Currently, the model guidance does not show
strong winds at this point, but further shifts will need to keep an
eye on the winds to see if there are any changes in the models. As
mentioned before, the cold front is not expected to bring
temperatures down by much, but temperatures are expected to be
closer to normal after the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through this
evening, with patchy to areas of fog and dense fog developing late
tonight. VFR conditions return by mid-morning Saturday with light
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Today through Saturday...Buoy 42020 reported north-northeast
winds around 16 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas of 3
feet with a period of 7 seconds at 1:50 CST/7:50 UTC. Light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail along the
Lower Texas Coast during the period in the wake of the recent
passage of a cold front. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and
Small Craft Advisory are not anticipated to be needed.

Saturday Night through Thursday....Generally favorable marine
conditions for the period with an exception for Tuesday into
Wednesday, which will be explained later. To start off with,
favorable conditions with southerly light to moderate winds and low
seas. As a cold front approaches the Lower Texas Coast, winds and
seas are expected to become more elevated on Tuesday and Wednesday
as the pressure gradient tightens, with winds approaching Small
Craft Advisory conditions during this time period. By Thursday, more
favorable conditions are expected to return to the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             60  79  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               57  82  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 61  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         59  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      59  69  61  71 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     59  74  59  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56-Hallman