415
FXUS64 KBRO 061128 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
628 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Tropical Storm Milton as
it moves towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico, potentially
becoming a hurricane tonight.

Brownsville radar currently indicates some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the Lower Texas coastal waters. Low to
medium rain chances (20 to 60 percent) are expected across the
eastern portions of the CWA today, mainly along and east of the I-
69C/US 281 corridor. Rain chances will tamper off by this evening as
as Milton in the Southwest Gulf will tend to consolidate nearby
weather, ultimately pulling moisture with it as it begins to head
east to northeast. High temperatures today will range from the mid
to upper 80s near the coast to the lower 90s across the Upper Valley
and the Rio Grande Plains.

We will also see a slight strengthening of northeast winds along the
immediate coast today. The increase in winds will bring higher waves
to the coast, and not only a High rip current risk today through
Monday, but water runup on the beaches will increase, possibly
making it to the dune line by high tide at around 9:23 PM this
evening. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through this morning
for the island portions of Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron Counties.
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from noon today until 6 AM
Monday morning for the island portions of Kenedy, Willacy and
Cameron Counties.

Low temperatures tonight should range from the upper 60s across the
northern ranchlands to the lower to middle 70s across the Rio Grande
Valley. Highs on Monday will be a few degrees warmer than today,
generally in the low to mid 90s, under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

As tropical storm Milton moves eastward from the western Gulf, upper
level ridging will move over the area. Subsidence associated with
the high pressure along with a cold front from the east expected on
Wednesday will suppress PoPs over the forecast period. Drier air
advected over Deep South Texas will make for comfortable conditions
with decreased humidity and clearer skies. Northeasterly winds will
shift to a light easterly flow midweek due to a weak pressure
gradient. High temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal
in the beginning of the forecast period, returning to near normal on
Thursday. Low temperatures, however, will hover at or below normal
for much of the period, with nighttime low temperatures in the 60s
to low 70s.

The greatest concern will be the hazardous marine conditions
associated with Tropical Storm Milton. Wave heights of 5-7 feet
and swell periods of 8-10 seconds accompanied by a moderate
northeasterly flow will increase the risk of rip currents, high
surf, and coastal run-up during high tides into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Light northwest winds with some low to mid level clouds prevail
across Deep South Texas early this morning. VFR conditions are
expected to persist through much of the period. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible that could lead to brief
MVFR conditions. North to northeast winds are expected to increase
later this morning into the afternoon, some gusts around 25 knots
will be possible. Winds will gradually diminish later this evening
into the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Today through Monday...The National Hurricane Center is monitoring
Tropical Storm Milton as it moves towards the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, potentially becoming a hurricane tonight. Moderate to
occasionally strong northeast winds and moderate seas will prevail
today. Small craft will need to exercise caution today on the Laguna
Madre and the nearshore Gulf waters as winds increase and seas
build. Low end small craft advisory conditions are expected to
develop later this morning into the afternoon for the offshore
waters. While northeast winds are forecast to decrease slightly
tonight, elevated wave heights offshore will likely require
additional small craft advisories.

Monday night through Saturday...The National Hurricane Center
continues to monitor Tropical Storm Milton as it moves east
through the Gulf of Mexico, and has potential to strengthen to a
hurricane as early as Monday. Breezy north to northeasterly winds
will prevail through Wednesday before shifting to a light onshore
flow. Wave heights of 5-7 feet and inflated swell periods in the
wake of Milton will reside in both near-shore and off-shore waters
until Thursday/Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions may be
present through late Tuesday, with Small Craft Caution conditions
possible as late as Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             87  75  89  72 /  60  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               88  71  91  68 /  50   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 91  73  94  71 /  30   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  71  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  81  86  79 /  60  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  75  88  73 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX... until noon CDT today for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CDT Monday for
     TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...63-KC