981
FXUS64 KBRO 041117 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
617 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

High pressure over the desert SW will continue to build through the
week, maintaining hot and dry conditions in deep South Texas. A
relatively dry atmosphere behind a weak boundary passage on
Sunday will keep apparent temperatures early this week
suppressed, but don`t get your hopes up for reprieve. Along and
east of I-69C, apparent temperatures today and Tuesday around 110
degF leave a Moderate risk of heat- related impacts (level 2 of
4). As deeper layer moisture returns midweek, apparent
temperatures climb to 105-115, with highest temperatures expected
in the aforementioned corridor, bringing a Major risk (level 3 of
4) of heat related impacts. This may require issuance of Special
Weather Statements as apparent temperatures climb to 105-110 degF
each day, especially today and in the latter half of the week.
Heat Advisory conditions may be met in the latter half of the
week; this will continue to be monitored.

Despite mostly dry conditions, isolated showers/thunderstorms may
form along the seabreeze each afternoon through midweek (<30%).
Afternoon CAPE values of 2000+ J/kg are difficult to realize with
little upper-level support; a shortwave disturbance in the mid-
layers Tuesday allow the greatest chance (30% in counties along
the Gulf) for initiation along the sea breeze in the afternoon,
but severe or any showers beyond that have little support.

In all; hot, dry conditions and breezy afternoons continue. At lower
Texas beaches, there is a low risk of rip currents.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across Deep South
Texas early this morning. Light southeast winds early this morning
will increase and become moderate later this morning into the
afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Slight seas and gentle to moderate southeasterly winds bringing
favorable marine conditions will prevail through the period. Small
Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible on the Laguna Madre
during the afternoons with thermally induced winds. Otherwise,
isolated showers are possible on the Gulf waters every afternoon
through midweek, with the greatest chance (40%) Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             97  79  95  79 /  10  10  30  10
HARLINGEN              100  76  97  75 /  10   0  30   0
MCALLEN                104  79 100  78 /  10   0  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        105  78 101  77 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  81  88  80 /   0  10  20   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     95  79  93  78 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...63-KC