172
FXUS64 KBRO 072329 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
529 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 236 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The 500 mb cut-off low continues to linger over the western Gulf.
This upper level low will slowly drift eastward as it weakens
through the period. Surface winds look to remain southerly to
southeasterly through the period, continuing to advect warm and
humid air to the region.  Light to moderate winds overnight and
ample radiational cooling will likely support the development of a
low stratus layer early Saturday morning. This cloud layer will
gradually rise and break through the late morning and early
afternoon as drier air aloft mixes too the surface. The pattern of
warm afternoon temperatures will continue Saturday, has highs reach
the mid 80s to low 90s across the area.

With skies expected to become mostly clear by this evening,
efficient radiational cooling will likely drop low temperatures to
the mid to upper 60s. Some patchy fog development is possible across
the area, however wind speeds between 5-10 kts will likely hinder
the development of widespread fog across most of the area.

Light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds along the Lower
Texas Coast will continue to advect a moist airmass with dewpoints
in the mid to upper 60s, over cool SST in the low 60s. These cool
water temperatures will cool the marine boundary layer, continuing
to support dense fog across the nearshore Gulf waters. As
temperatures drop tonight, some of this sea fog may advect inland
across the barrier islands and immediate coastline. Dense Fog
Advisories may be needed for portions of the Lower Texas Coast
tonight into Saturday morning. As temperatures increase Saturday,
fog will likely begin to dissipate over land, however fog will
likely remain over the Gulf waters and portions of the Laguna Madre
through much of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The long term period will feature above normal temperatures,
breezy afternoons, and generally rain-free conditions across Deep
South Texas. Toward the end of the long term period, however, a
cold front is expected to approach the region and allow for
temperatures to be closer to seasonal normals for mid February. By
Sunday morning, the mid level low is expected to translate further
east from the region, allowing for southwesterly flow to prevail
over Deep South Texas. At the surface and low levels of the
atmosphere, southerly to southeasterly winds will prevail as the
region remains along the western periphery of high pressure
centered over the eastern Gulf and Florida. This will maintain
warm and humid conditions through at least Wednesday, with highs
in the 80s and low 90s and lows in the 60s. Wind gusts between 20
to 25 MPH will be possible each afternoon across the region, but
should fall to 10-15 MPH overnight.

There are still some discrepancies among deterministic and
ensemble guidance on the exact timing of the cold front late
Wednesday into Thursday. Isolated showers may accompany the cold
front, but most guidance keeps PoPs over the Gulf waters.
Otherwise, temperatures on Thursday and Friday should be closer to
or slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 60s
and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next couple of
hours at all TAF sites. However, conditions should become a
mixture of MVFR and IFR during the overnight hours. Best chance of
fog development would be for HRL and BRO around sunrise, but this
does not rule out any patchy fog during the rest of the overnight
hours. Light southeasterly winds are expected to continue, but a
few gusts could still occur as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Tonight through Saturday night...Generally light to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas are expected to continue through
the period. Cool SST in the low 60s across the nearshore Gulf
waters and Laguna Madre will cool the marine boundary layer to
saturation tonight. Dense fog is expected to become more
widespread across the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters
tonight and early Saturday morning. Thanks to the cool SST, little
warming or mixing of the marine boundary layer is expected
through the day Saturday, allowing fog over the nearshore gulf
waters to persist into the afternoon. Slightly warmer SST in the
Laguna Madre, and the stronger influence of the adjacent land will
likely allow for better mixing and warmer air temperatures. This
will likely lead to significant thinning or dissipation of the fog
layer by late Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon. Given
little change in the overarching pattern and SSTs, fog will
likely redevelop again Saturday evening. A Dense Fog Advisory is
currently in effect for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters
through 10 AM Saturday, and will likely need to be extended for
the Gulf waters.

Sunday through Friday...Generally favorable marine conditions
will continue through mid week over the Gulf waters and Laguna
Madre. Light to moderate southeasterly winds and generally low
seas will prevail, with a low potential of Small Craft Exercise
Caution conditions along the Laguna Madre each afternoon. Patchy
to dense marine fog cannot be ruled out Sunday morning as well.
Otherwise, a cold front is expected to approach the region on
Thursday, which will bring low precipitation chances and north
winds. This will result in elevated winds and seas and may result
in Small Craft Advisory conditions Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             69  81  67  82 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               65  85  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 69  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         67  91  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      65  73  65  74 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     66  80  64  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...63-KC