862
FXUS64 KBRO 121735
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1235 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

 - A Coastal Flood Statement continues through sunrise Monday and
   a High Risk of Rip Currents continues Monday evening.

 - An influx of tropical moisture is expected to bring a low
   chance (30%) for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.

 - Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above seasonal
   through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Mid and upper level ridging will prevail overhead through much of
the week, which will maintain near to above normal temperatures
and generally rain-free conditions. However, an influx of low
level moisture as a weak trough approaches will result in (20-30%)
precipitation chances along and east of US-281 early Tuesday into
Wednesday. There are still some discrepancies among deterministic
guidance on the exact timing and where the highest moisture
content will reside, but this set up should allow for isolated
showers during the morning hours on Tuesday and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the late morning and
afternoon hours as daytime heating increases and the sea breeze
pushes inland. Otherwise, expect highs in the low to mid 90s
across most of Deep South Texas, with the exception along the
immediate coast where highs will warm into the upper 80s.

For the Lower Texas beaches, a Coastal Flood Statement is in
effect through 7 AM Monday morning and a high risk of rip currents
is in effect through 7 PM Monday evening. These products may need
to be extended beyond Monday due to the combination of higher
astronomical tide and long period swell.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites.
Light and variable winds will shift to the southeast this
afternoon and continue through tomorrow. Wind speeds generally
below 10 knots are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions with low to moderate seas
and light to moderate southeast winds. Low rain chances (20-30%)
return on Monday and Tuesday across the Gulf waters and Laguna
Madre. Locally enhanced winds and seas are likely within any
showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  90  75  88 /   0   0  20  40
HARLINGEN               67  91  70  88 /   0   0  10  40
MCALLEN                 71  94  73  91 /   0   0  10  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         67  94  69  92 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  85  79  85 /   0   0  30  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     72  87  74  86 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...22-Garcia