019
FXUS64 KBRO 161719
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents begins tomorrow
  at area beaches and is expected to continue through the weekend.

- A warming trend continues through next Tuesday with highs
  topping out in the mid to upper 90s.

- Rain chances will be less then 10% through next Tuesday, and
  then increase to around 20% on Wednesday and Thursday for areas
  E of US 281/I-69C.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

An active weather pattern remains in place over the CONUS, which
could bring multiple troughs over the Great Plains this next week.
Despite the active pattern, dry and unseasonably warm conditions are
expected to continue over Deep South Texas through the middle of
next week, with precipitation chances staying below 10% through
Tuesday and rising to around 20% for areas east of US 281/I-69C on
Wednesday and Thursday.

A Pacific trough is expected to eject over the Southern Plains this
weekend, which will bring a weak cold front towards our area on
Sunday. At this time, model guidance is not in agreement on whether
or not this front will make it all the way through Deep South Texas.
Some guidance suggests the front will stall to the north of the CWA
closer to Corpus Christi.  Other guidance suggests that the front
will come through the entire Rio Grande Valley before stalling in
Mexico. Either way, this front is not expected to bring any
temperature relief to the area because the air will largely mix out
by the time it comes this far south. Latest guidance also suggests
that the precipitation chances are not expected to increase much on
Sunday either, with POPs still staying below 10%. However, if the
front does make it south of the CWA, we could see winds shift
northeasterly which would slightly lower humidities.

A gradual warming trend is expected to continue into early next week
as high pressure settles in behind the front.  Highs are expected to
be in the low to mid 90s tomorrow, and gradually warm into the mid
to upper 90s by Tuesday with some areas (particularly in the Western
Ranchlands) experiencing a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk. Lows
will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s throughout the forecast period.

On Wednesday, another shortwave ejects over the Southern Plains,
which will provide another opportunity for a cold front to pass
through the region. This front appears to be slightly stronger than
the previous weekend front; if this front happens to make it to Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, it could provide some
temperature relief and a slightly elevated precipitation chance on
Wendesday.

A moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents is expected at
area beaches tomorrow and should continue through the weekend.  Area
swimmers will need to remain situationally aware and stay in shallow
water if unsure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions with few clouds and light to moderate southeasterly
winds are expected for all airports.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Conditions should be favorable through next week with light to
moderate winds and seas between 2-4 feet. A cold front is expected
to approach the area on Sunday, which could tighten the pressure
gradient and increase coastal wind speeds. However, wind speeds are
still expected to stay below Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions.  Winds are expected to be overall easterly to
southeasterly, possibly shifting northeasterly if the front makes it
through Deep South Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             71  90  73  91 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               67  92  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 71  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         68  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  86  78  86 /   0   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     71  89  72  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM