296
FXUS64 KBRO 241118 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
618 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

An unsettled pattern will continue over Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley into the first part of the workweek as mid/upper level
troughing continues. While some lingering showers are expected to
occur over the region tonight, most likely this will be the extent
of the activity for the overnight hours. Medium to high likelihood
(60-80%) of rainfall is expected over the next couple of days. PWATs
across Deep South Texas remain quite high at 2 to 2.25 inches which
poses the concern for heavy rain leading to minor flooding,
especially along roadways and low lying areas. The strongest storms
will be capable of producing occasional to frequent cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds. Around round of possible strong
thunderstorms with the seabreeze tomorrow cannot be ruled out. As
the diurnal heating could produce enough instability to get some
showers and thunderstorms going again.

Rain chances will taper off through next week, though afternoon
seabreeze activity will still be possible.

Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s through Monday with
heat indices generally between 100 and 105 degrees each day. As we
head into the middle of next week, temperatures begin to increase
wit highs in the mid 90s to low 100s and heat indices generally
between 105 and 110 degrees each day. A few locations, especially
along an east of US-281/I-69C could see heat indices exceed 110
degrees briefly and while Heat Advisories may not be needed, Special
Weather Statements may be needed. Heat risk will remain Low (level 1
our of 4) to Moderate (level 2 out of 4) throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF
period, with brief MVFR or IFR conditions rolling by BRO over the
next hour or two. Isolated to widely scattered convection may
impact RGV aerodromes late this morning into this evening with
slow moving showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is lower on
location and coverage, with some guidance favoring convection over
BRO rather than HRL or MFE late this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail on the waters off
the lower Texas coast. Southerly to southeasterly winds are expected
to be light through the forecast period as well.  Wave heights will
remain generally at 1 to 2 feet with 3 to 6 second periods. Showers
and thunderstorms each day could lead to localized areas of elevated
winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  78  92  80 /  70  60  60  20
HARLINGEN               92  74  94  75 /  60  40  70  20
MCALLEN                 95  78  97  79 /  60  40  60  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         95  75  97  77 /  50  30  50  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  80  89  83 /  60  60  50  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  77  91  78 /  60  50  50  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...56-Hallman