Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
352
FNUS71 KBOX 062142
FWSBOX
Spot Forecast for Hawthorne Drive Fire...CT DEEP / CT DEMHS
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
442 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EST on November 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
Sunny and dry weather is again expected for Thursday, with another
day of above normal temperatures. High temperatures should warm
into the low 70s, which will bring relative humidities on Thursday
down to around 45 to 50 percent. West winds around 5 mph early
Thursday morning will shift to NW by mid morning, with an increase
in speed to 10 mph and gusts in the lower 20s mph range. Limited
mixing during the evening and overnight will lead to smoke close
to the ground with limited transport to the east; once winds pick
up from the NW, expect greater lofting and better transport
towards the southeast over the adjacent ridgeline towards the I-91
corridor.
Northwest winds will still continue into early Thursday evening
around 10 mph, with decreasing northwest winds by midnight.
Reduced mixing will lead to smoke layer becoming increasingly
closer to the ground by late Thursday evening.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Dewpoint............52 decreasing to 43.
Max apparent temp...69.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph with
gusts to around 23 mph through early afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph with
gusts to around 23 mph through early afternoon.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (64400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................8 to 15 increasing to 32 late in the morning,
then increasing to 48 to 55 increasing to 59 to
67 early in the afternoon decreasing to 10 to
11.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 20 early, then decreasing to
13 in the late morning and early afternoon
increasing to 20 late in the afternoon
increasing to 25.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming northwest up to 6 mph with
gusts to around 14 mph through early afternoon.
TIME (EST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52 43 33 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............57 60 64 67 68 69 69 68 66 64 61
Dewpoint........54 54 53 53 51 50 48 47 45 44 43
RH..............90 81 67 61 54 51 47 47 47 48 51
Heat index (F)..57 60 64 67 68 69 69 68 66 64 61
20 FT wind dir..W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..3 5 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9
20 FT wind gust.7 10 13 18 20 22 22 23 23 22 21
Eye lvl wnd dir.W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.2 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.4 6 8 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 13
Surface wnd dir.W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Surface wnd spd.3 5 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9
Surface wnd gst.7 10 13 18 20 22 22 23 23 22 21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 1.2 2.1 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.2
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW W W W W NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.8 10 13 15 16 16 17 17 16 16 15
LVORI...........5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
ADI.............8 15 32 48 55 59 67 66 62 11 10
Haines index....3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 11 23 39 48 54 64 64 59 58 42
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD FR FR FR
Ceiling (kft)...25 20 15 14 13 13 13 15 20 25 25
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Dewpoint............41 decreasing to 37 after midnight.
Max apparent temp...58.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph with gusts to around
20 mph until early morning becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph with gusts to around
20 mph until early morning becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (29300 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (2600 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 to 10.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......20 increasing to 25 in the late evening and
overnight.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 5 mph with gusts to
around 12 mph until early morning becoming
light.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........9 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............58 56 53 52 50 49 47 45 44 43 42 41
Dewpoint........43 42 43 42 41 40 39 38 38 37 37 37
RH..............57 64 66 69 68 68 71 71 73 76 79 82
Heat index (F)..58 56 54 52 51 48 46 45 44 42 41 40
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W
20 FT wind spd..9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.20 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 10 9 9 9
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W
Eye lvl wnd spd.5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.12 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5
Surface wnd dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W
Surface wnd spd.9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 3
Surface wnd gst.20 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 10 9 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W
Transp wind spd.15 14 14 13 13 12 9 8 8 7 7 7
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5
ADI.............10 9 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3
Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..29 16 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...20 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Dewpoint............38.
Min apparent temp...39.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming west 5 to 12 mph with
gusts to around 24 mph through early afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph with gusts to around 24
mph.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in
the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (64300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 9 increasing to 21 to 30 late in the
morning, then increasing to 42 early increasing
to 53 to 58 early in the afternoon decreasing
to 41 to 47 decreasing to 10 to 11 late in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming west up to 7 mph with
gusts to around 14 mph through early afternoon.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12 14 12 10 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............40 42 45 49 54 58 60 62 63 62 61 59
Dewpoint........37 37 38 38 39 38 38 37 37 37 37 37
RH..............85 82 76 66 57 47 44 39 38 39 41 44
Heat index (F)..39 40 43 46 54 58 60 62 63 62 61 59
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..3 3 5 7 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 10
20 FT wind gust.8 8 10 15 17 20 21 23 23 24 24 21
Eye lvl wnd dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Eye lvl wnd spd.2 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 6
Eye lvl wnd gst.5 5 6 9 10 12 13 14 14 14 14 13
Surface wnd dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Surface wnd spd.3 3 5 7 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 10
Surface wnd gst.8 8 10 15 17 20 21 23 23 24 24 21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.0
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.7 7 8 10 12 14 17 20 18 17 16 15
LVORI...........5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
ADI.............3 7 9 21 30 42 58 53 47 41 11 10
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 2 7 14 22 32 49 64 54 44 35 26
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR GD FR FR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
$$
Forecaster...Loconto
Requested by...Josh Cingranelli
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2425927.0/BOX
.DELDT 11/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL josh.cingranelli@ct.gov,nicole.velardi@ct.gov