511
FXUS61 KBOX 032310
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
710 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures today will likely trigger a round of scattered
showers & t-storms between 4 and 10 PM, some of which may be
severe. Quiet for Independence Day heading into the weekend,
then heat and humidity kick up for Sunday and the start of next
week. Unsettled weather may make a return Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...

* Severe weather threat in NE CT, RI, and SE MA this evening.

Trimmed back Severe Thunderstorm Watch to include NE CT, RI, and
SE MA where broken line of severe storms was moving through,
feeding off best instability and weakening effective shear.
Radar shows decent velocity signatures which are being well
sampled right down radial. Expecting these storms to weaken as
they reach coast but with many outdoor activities this evening,
lightning will pose a danger.

Broad area of stratiform precip behind line will keep lighter
rain showers for awhile this evening, before clearing works into
region later tonight behind cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Dry & sunny for Independence Day.

Once the colder airmass moves into place overnight, we`ll start
to see some drying and more pleasant weather. Friday should be
quite sunny, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s under a
high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Dry and sunny through the weekend.

* Heat and humidity increase Sunday into early next week.

* Unsettled weather returns around late Mon/Tue but low
  confidence in timing/location details.

The mid level trough finally exits east on Saturday with
ridging building in followed by a weak shortwave early next
week. This will pump up the heat and humidity, really starting
on Sunday when the 90s return and continuing until at least
Monday. Beyond that there is some uncertainty owing to the
timing of a frontal system which may bring down temperatures
while also introducing a chance for showers and thunderstorms as
early at late Monday. For now, best chance of unsettled weather
looks centered on Tuesday, which would bring down temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...High confidence.

Areas of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms, primarily in RI and
SE MA this evening. Clearing tonight with SKC Fri and Fri night.
Winds shift to NW tonight and could gust to 20kt Fri before
diminishing.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. TS expected to remain
south of airport this evening.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday: Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Independence Day...High confidence.

Winds/seas stay below small craft advisory thresholds through
Friday. Winds will generally be in SW direction on the order of
7-15 knots before switching too a more NW direction tonight
behind the cold front.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday through Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory
winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...McMinn
NEAR TERM...McMinn/JWD
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...McMinn/FT/JWD
MARINE...McMinn