027
FXUS61 KBOX 082001
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
301 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Windy and mainly dry weather through Thursday night. Cannot rule
out a few snow showers early Thursday which may coincide with
the morning commute. Dry weather prevails on Friday and
temperatures moderate a bit along with less wind. No big storm
on Saturday as low pressure will pass well south of the region
with just a period of light snow showers expected. Dry and
seasonable weather returns Sunday and Monday before colder/below
normal temperatures move back into the region Tuesday into
Wednesday. No significant storms are expected through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Wind Advisory expanded into northeast Massachusetts and extended
  through Thursday evening.

Through this afternoon/early evening: Many gusts of 30 to 40
mph today with localized higher gusts between 45 and 55 mph have
been reported. These conditions will continue through early
evening, then winds will slightly diminish although the gusts
are expected between 20 and 30 mph overnight. All of this wind
is a product of our location between a power low pressure system
located over the Canadian Maritime and building 1040mb high
pressure across the southern Great Plains. We have opt`d to
extend and expand the Wind Advisory to include the rest of
western and northeast Massachusetts from this afternoon into
Thursday evening. Would like to emphasize the strongest winds
will occur this afternoon and early evening, then again mid
morning on Thursday through the evening.

Overnight: During the overnight, clouds increase from the north
to south as a modest shortwave pivots south. While it`s
moisture starved but minimal QPF could bring a few snow showers
early Thursday morning. Given antecedent conditions any snow
would stick to roadways, leading to slick spots. Snow amounts
are minimal around at coating to tenth of an inch or two of an
inch.

Will be another chilly start with temperatures in the low and
middle teens. But a wind chill of +5F to -10F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Another cold and windy day with gusts 40 to 50+ mph and a wind
  chill in the single digits to low teens.

* Light snow possible for Thursday morning commute, though will be
  light with little or no accumulation.

A moisture starved shortwave pivots across southern New England
with light snow during the morning commute. The antecedent
temperature of the pavement should result in any snow falling to
stick on the roads which may cause a few slick spots. Given the
lack of moisture the accumulations are a coating to perhaps a
tenth or two of an inch. The 12z run of the 3km NAM hint a
second round of light snow is possible around lunchtime, but
confidence in that is low.

More notable are the strong northwest gusts. With 925mb winds a
touch stronger on Thursday, compared to today, opt`d to expand
and extend the Wind Advisory though Thursday evening as
mentioned in the `Near Term` section of the AFD. Here NW wind
15-25mph, gusting 40 to 50mph, and a few isolated gusts to 55
mph across higher elevations.

Heading past sunset the inversion will lower and help to reduce
the amount of wind that mixes down. Think we hold on to gusts
of 25 to 40 mph for the first part of the night, with a trend of
easing wind into Friday morning.

Lastly, temperatures are once again below normal with highs in
the middle and upper 20s, but will feel like the single digits
and teens with the winds. Night time lows return to the teens
and low-20s in urban locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Dry and a bit milder with less wind Fri...Highs 35-40
* Light snow showers Sat...Dusting-1" with perhaps localized 2" amts
* Mainly dry and seasonable Sun-Mon...Highs 30s/near 40
* Turning colder sometime Tue into Wed with below normal temps
* No big storms anticipated through early next week

Details...

Friday...

A ridge of high pressure gradually builds in from the west Fri. This
weakens the gradient enough for less wind than the last few
days...although it still will be breezy. The mid level ridge axis
approaching from the west should also allow for a bit milder temps.
Expect highs to generally top off between 35 and 40 which is
seasonable for this time of year.

Friday night and Saturday...

Low pressure over the Deep south will begin to lift northeastward
Friday night. The models have come into agreement that the northern
stream shortwave energy will not amplify the upper level pattern
enough to capture this system. Therefore...we expect the low
pressure system to pass well southeast of the Benchmark on Sat. So a
big storm is not in the cards for our region. The northern stream
shortwave energy will be enough to trigger a period of light snow
showers on Sat. Generally looking at just a dusting to 1" of snow
accumulation for most of the region...but localized 2" amounts can
not be ruled out. High temps Sat will mainly be between 30 and 35.

Sunday and Monday...

Mid level ridge axis will cross the region Sun into Mon. This will
provide dry weather with seasonable high temps...generally in the
30s to near 40.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

The next shortwave tough/cold front drops southeast from the western
Great Lakes Tue into Wed. This will bring a reinforcing shot of
colder air and below normal temps. High temps on Tue probably  in
the lower to middle 30s...but by Wed highs may not reach 30 in many
spots. We may see a few snow showers with the shortwave energy...but
nothing significant is expected and the vast majority of this time
will feature dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today... High Confidence

VFR with very gusty NW winds of 30-40 knots, possibly higher in
the high terrain.

Tonight... High Confidence

VFR with continued gusty winds of 25-35 knots.

Tomorrow... Moderate Confidence

VFR,some light snow early Thursday morning in eastern MA with
briefly lower visibility and ceilings. Otherwise very windy
again. Guidance suggests winds could be even higher then
Wednesday at 35-45 knots.

Tomorrow Night... High confidence.

VFR. NW wind 10-15 knots gusts to 25 knots.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

VFR with NW wind gusts up to 40 knots. Light snow possible for
the Thursday morning push, opt`d to include a PROB30 for 2SM -SN
and BKN030 from 10z-13z, possible a second burst of light snow
around noontime.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

VFR with NW wind gusts up to 40 knots.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHSN.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. SHSN likely.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages:

* Gale Warnings continue through Thursday evening.

* Light freezing spray possible across all waters.

Through Tonight... High confidence.

Continued gale force wind from the northwest, may briefly fall below
gale force prior to sunrise. Otherwise NW wind 20-30 knots, gusting
to 35 knots. Seas nearshore are 4 to 6 feet, offshore are 6 to 10
feet. Light freezing spray possible.

Thursday... High confidence.

Gale force northwest wind 25 to 30 knots and gusts to 40 knots. Seas
nearshore are 4 to 6 feet, offshore are 6 to 10 feet. Light freezing
spray possible.

Thursday Night... High confidence.

Strongest winds will subside and overnight expect NW winds 15 to 25
knots and gusts to 30 knots. Gale warnings will likely be converted
to Small Craft Advisories. Seas begin to lower, near shore are 3 to
5 feet and offshore are 5 to 8 feet. Light freezing spray possible.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Snow showers likely.
Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance
of snow showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for MAZ002>012-014-015-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Dooley
MARINE...Frank/Dooley