396
FXUS61 KBOX 161103
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
703 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably cool airmass brings below normal temps and
blustery conditions Today with ocean effect clouds along the
southeast New England coast along with a few passing showers
towards the Cape and Islands later today and tonight. Warming
trend for Friday into the weekend before turning more unsettled
as we move into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points

* Cool and Gusty NW winds up to 30-40mph with chilly temps in
  the low 50s.

Cool and windy today as cold air advection continues, supported by
the cold pool aloft dropping south.  High temperatures will struggle
to reach the mid-50s even under sunny skies across the interior.
Skies will be more overcast across the Cape and Islands, with ocean-
effect strato-cumulus clouds forming as cold air moves over the
relatively warm ocean waters still in the upper 50s to low 60s.
There could be some ocean effect rain showers late in the day, but
boundary layer conditions are rather dry, and rain will struggle to
reach the ground.  Diurnal heating today will allow mixing of winds
up to 850mb today where winds are around 25-35 knots (28-40mph) will
mix down to the surface this afternoon.  The gusty winds will make
it feel like the 40s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Key Points

* Windy and Cold tonight. Lows in the 30s.

* Decreasing winds and slightly warmer.

* Minor splash over flooding possible with the evening high
  tide. See coastal flood section below.

Tonight:

Winds at 850mb increase to 35-45 knots overnight, but with the loss
of diurnal heating, it will be much harder to mix those gusts down
to the surface.  It will still be breezy overnight with gusts around
20-25mph.  With overnight lows dropping into the 30s away from the
coasts, the wind chill values will fall into the upper 20s.

Tomorrow:

The cold pool begins to move offshore on Friday with an upper-level
ridge building in behind.  With rising heights and weakening cold
air advection, high temperatures will be able to rebound slightly
into the upper 50s to low 60s under mostly sunny skies.  Stronger
winds aloft begin to move offshore on Friday, meaning we will still
have gusty northerly winds in the morning, but becoming light in the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Dry Fri/Sat/Sun with moderating temps..highs may approach 70 on Sun
* Some showers possible early next week...but timing is uncertain

Details...

Saturday/Sunday...

A mid level ridge axis approaches from the west as the upper trough
shifts east of the region. This will result in continued dry weather
with moderating temperatures. 850T warm significantly by
Saturday and while we will not be able to mix that deep or fully
realize at the surface...still expect highs to reach the lower
to middle 60s with light winds. As the high shifts east of the
region...high temps will probably reach between 65 and 70 on
Sunday.

Early Next Week...

A vigorous shortwave trough will lift northeast across the Great
Lakes early next week with an associated surface low. A cold front
extending southward from the low pressure system will likely bring a
period of showers to the region sometime early next week...roughly
in the late Sunday night to Monday timeframe. However...there are a
few ensemble members that hint at a stronger secondary low pressure
system developing near or south of southern New England. If this
were to occur...another period of rain would be possible sometime
Tuesday into Wednesday...especially if this were to develop to our
south. Whether or not this happens...appears that we will see at
least one round of showers early next week in the late Sunday night
into Monday timeframe. As for temperatures...they likely run a bit
above normal especially in regards to overnight lows. High temps
will probably top out mainly in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...

Today: High Confidence

VFR with 4-5k ft cigs over the Cape/Islands expanding across
eastern MA this afternoon. Patchy MVFR possible outer Cape late
today. NW gusts 25-30 kt.

Tonight: Moderate Confidence

VFR with MVFR across the Cape and Islands. Winds aloft at 2-3kft
will be increasing to 40-45 knots from the NNW overnight. There
is some uncertainty if the boundary layer decouples from the
surface again tomorrow night. Given the possibility, opted to
include wind shear for TAF sites across the interior overnight.

Tomorrow: High Confidence

VFR. Not quite as windy as today with NW gusts to 20 knots
inland, 30 knots near the waters.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. NW winds gusting up to 30 knots today. Less windy
overnight, but winds at 2kft turn more northerly and increase
to 35-40 knots.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. NW winds up to 25 knots. Less windy overnight, but winds at
2 kft will turn more northerly and increase to 40-45 knots.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Marine

Through Friday

Gale-force winds begin across the eastern waters later this morning
as a strong cold front moves through.  Gale-force winds will last
into Thursday night, ending Friday morning.  The extended period of
strong northerly winds will bring seas up to 8-10 feet.  While gale-
force winds are not expected after Friday morning, Winds will remain
around 25-30 knots, and seas will remain elevated at 6-8 feet.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely.


Coastal Flood:

Opted to issue a coastal flood statement for Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket for the 10 pm high tide tonight. Strong NNW winds will
cause offshore waves to increase into the 8-10 foot range tonight,
which could bring surge values up to 1.5 feet.  Stevens Institute
flood forecasts show total water level at Nantucket reaching 5.0 ft
MLLW with a 10% chance of reaching 5.2 feet MLLW.  Given the strong
northerly winds and offshore waves reaching 10 ft, there will likely
be some minor splash over flooding for both Nantucket and Marthas
Vineyard.  Decided to leave Cape Cod out of the coastal flood
statement as total water level forecasts for Dennis are expected to
be around 11.8 feet MLLW, and 10.4 feet MLLW at Provincetown.  In
order to get minor flooding, we would likely need the total water
level to reach 12.5 feet MLLW or much larger offshore waves on the
order of 20+ feet.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231-251.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ232-250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ233-234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Frank/KP
AVIATION...KJC/KP
MARINE...KP