542
FXUS61 KBOX 281950
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
250 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered light snow showers possible through the evening with
little accumulation (if any). Gusty winds continue overnight,
although not as strong as during the day today. Still on the
cold side for Saturday, but not as windy compared to Friday. Low
pressure passes to our north and west Sunday afternoon and
night bringing a period of rain with it. Cooling down again for
Monday as a cold front passes through. Monitoring possible
storminess around Tuesday and/or into Wednesday which could
bring wintry weather or rain to Southern New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Scattered light snow showers possible through early evening.
  Impacts to travel are minor to none.

* Gusty westerly winds continue tonight, although not as strong as
  daytime Friday.

Details...

Radar this afternoon shows scattered light snow showers across
southern New England. This activity is expected to continue late
this afternoon and into the early evening before dissipating.
No impacts to travel are expected. The highest chance of seeing
any trace to very light accumulation will be for the high
terrain spots along the interior, but should be limited to
grassy or elevated surfaces.

Winds will likely remain fairly gusty this evening and
tonight as a tightened pressure gradient continues across the
region. Although the peak gusts will be likely behind us, gusts 20-
30 mph are likely in the evening with some gusts up to 30-40 mph
still possible for the isolated higher terrain spots and
Cape/Islands. Winds will gradually trend downward overnight as the
pressure gradient slowly weakens as low pressure moves further east
and surface high pressure works in from the southwest. It will be a
chilly night overall, but elevated winds overnight should keep
temperatures from tanking as much as they could given the mainly
clear skies. Lows should drop into the low to mid 20s for the
interior and upper 20s to low 30s closer to the coast. With the
added wind factor this will bring wind chills into the teens to 20s
overnight.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Gusty winds gradually decrease through the day.

Brief mid-level ridging expected on Saturday with flow turning
toward the NW. Surface high pressure will continue to build in from
the south through the day. This will continue to support the
downward trend in wind magnitude over the course of the day. It
will start on the breezier side with model soundings showing
sufficient mixing in the boundary layer. Although winds will be
weaker than Friday with gusts 20-30 mph. It will be another
cooler day with slightly below normal 850mb temperature anomaly
over the region still. This will yield high temperatures in the
low to mid 30s for the high terrain and upper 30s to low 40s
elsewhere. Breezy conditions will make temperatures feel closer
to upper 20s/low 30s at times.

Winds will weaken further into Saturday evening/night. Clouds
gradually increase through the overnight ahead of the next weather
system. Despite increasing clouds, it will still be a chilly night
with lows dropping into 20s for most places and low 30s for the
immediate coastal areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Low pressure brings rain later Sunday into Sunday night;
  drying out Monday to go along with cooler temperatures.

* An interior-SNE wintry weather and coastal-plain rain or wet snow-
  to-rain event remains on the table Tue into early on Wed.
  Confidence remains low on the details. Best chance for
  accumulations of snow and possible impacts is in interior Southern
  New England.

* Drying out for Wed through Fri with below normal temperatures
  favored.

Details:

Increasing clouds early on Sunday with warm-frontal/isentropically-
forced rains breaking out Sun aftn into the evening. This occurs as
a rather progressive area of low pressure tracks from southern
Ontario ENE along the US/Canada international border. Cloudy but
generally dry conditions prevail during the Sunday morning hours,
with rain breaking out by Sun aftn. Precip type should be largely as
a plain rain but could mixover to wet snowflakes as the storm system
exits into early Mon morning. Rain amts around a quarter-inch or
less in all areas, ending as back-end snowflakes with nil accum in
the higher terrain Sun night.

Focus for the long-term portion of the forecast continues to be a
potential storm system centered around Tue into Tue night. This
occurs as an open-wave/progressive midlevel shortwave disturbance
and its sfc cyclone moves ENE from the southern Plains to near or
south of Southern New England/adjacent waters. There remain
uncertainties in the system`s track, in which there are differences
which have unfortunately grown today between the northernmost GFS (a
track inside of 40N/70W) with the more offshore ECMWF (a track
outside of 40N/70W), with today`s Canadian splitting the difference
over 40N/70W. Ensemble means and AI guidance support their parent
modeling systems. An interior/higher-elevation mainly snow with
lower-elevation/coastal plain wet, gloppy snow-to-rain scenario
remains a best guess as to precipitation types; but if a warmer,
more northern solution like the GFS bears itself out then we could
introduce some wintry mixture into the equation. There is also the
local nuances inherent to early-season wintry events, in which
accumulations are dependent on time-of-day (can be too warm to
accumulate on pavement during the day) and the influence mild water
temps around 50 degrees would have near the coastal plain given the
expectation of sustained onshore flow. The wetter, moisture-laden
nature of the system combined with some of the above factors would
favor positive-snow-depth-change snow accumulation methodologies vs
simple 10:1 snowfall accumulations. For now, there are too many
uncertainties as alluded to advertise specific snowfall or rain
amounts as of yet, with optimism that some of these details will
avail themselves over the coming days. Taking a probabilistic
approach for now..,in the area where rain may predominate, NBM-based
24-hour probabilities of 2 or more inches of snow are in the low to
nil level (less than 30%) for the coastal plain and most of eastern
MA, central CT and much of RI excluding the northwestern hills. For
interior Southern New England, 24-hr NBM probabilities of 2 or more
inches of snow are in the moderate to high (40-60%) range, and are
low to moderate (25-40%) for 4 or more inches. Thus potential for
somewhat greater impacts over interior Southern New England where
colder air may be more entrenched and lesser as one moves closer to
I-95.

Drying out in the wake of the Tue system for Wed, with another dump
of colder than normal temperatures as we move toward late in the
upcoming workweek, in what could be the coldest air yet seen to this
point in the early-winter 2025-2026.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z Update...

This Afternoon...High Confidence.

VFR. W winds 15-25 kts with gusts 25-30 kts. Can`t rule out an
isolated gust up to 35 kts, mainly for the the higher terrain
and Cape/Islands. Periods of BKN decks this afternoon 4000-8000
ft. Widely scattered flurries/light snow showers through 00Z.
Low probability of brief minor reductions in visibility in any
passing showers.

Friday night...High Confidence.

VFR. Wind gradually trend downward overnight, but remain gusty. W
winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts, decreasing further after 06Z.

Saturday...High Confidence.

VFR. W wind becoming more NW. Winds 8-12 kts gusting to 20-25
kts.


KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate for -SN
chances.

VFR most likely. Widely scattered flurries/snow showers move
across Massachusetts this afternoon with potential for some to
pass near/at the terminal. Confidence is lower due to the
scattered nature of the showers. Reductions in visibility not
likely. Worst case scenario, a brief minor reduction to 6-8SM.
Shower chances should end by 00z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. RA likely, chance SN.

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely,
chance SN.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Sunday... High confidence.

* Gale Warning through early Saturday across all waters.

Winds and seas slowly decrease overnight tonight into early
Saturday. The bays and harbors will be solidly below Gale
criteria this evening and by early Saturday morning the
remaining marine zones will be also. These will be likely
replaced with SCAs once the Gale Warning expires.

Seas 6-10 ft for the southern outer waters tonight, decreasing
Saturday morning.

Outlook/Sunday through Wednesday/...


Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas
of gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance
of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>235-237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/Mensch
MARINE...Loconto/Mensch