494
FXUS61 KBOX 241740
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
140 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The risk for dangerous rip currents will remain elevated
through Sunday in the wake of Erin. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
are possible on Monday ahead of a cold front. Dry conditions
favored with surface high pressure in place through the end of
the week while also trending cooler with temperatures slightly
below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Elevated risk for dangerous rip currents today.

An upper level trough and cold front track across the Great Lakes
region today resulting in southwesterly flow aloft across southern
New England. Conditions will be mainly dry today with high pressure
in place. However, weak moisture shifting eastward well ahead of the
approaching front may be enough to support a few isolated showers
late afternoon-evening in western MA. Model soundings show a well-
mixed boundary layer this afternoon which will result in breezy
conditions in the afternoon with occasional gust 20-25 mph.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than Saturday with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s. The subtle uptick in moisture will also
support more cloud cover in the afternoon.

There will still be an elevated risk for rip currents today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Chance for scattered showers/thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

Main story for tonight will be a weak low system passing offshore
overnight into early Monday morning. This will bring increased
chances for showers across the Cape and for the immediate coast of
eastern MA. Increased cloud cover will keep temperatures a little
warmer tonight with low mainly in the mid 60s.

For Monday, a trough/cold front will slowly approach the region,
eventually pushing through Monday night. This will provide some weak
synoptic lift and combined with diurnal heating and marginal
moisture/instability, should be enough to support some shower/storm
development in the afternoon. MLCAPE values range around 50-1000
J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates are fairly weak with steeper low level
lapse rates. 0-6km shear will be sufficient given a jet present
aloft. Coverage should be limited (scattered) as models still bring
the cold front in on the later side, well after peak heating. Clouds
increase through the day with highs in the upper 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Mainly dry conditions for remainder of week with slightly below
  normal temperatures.

Behind Monday`s cold front, a cooler airmass settles across
southern New England Tuesday through the remainder of the week.
850mb temperatures range from +7 to +10C yielding high
temperatures mainly in the mid 70s to near 80. High pressure
will bring dry conditions and mainly clear conditions which will
provide several nights of good radiational cooling. This will
bring overnight lows into the 50s, potentially into the upper
40s for interior southern New England by Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z Update...

Through Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Have a SCT to BKN deck of low-end VFR clouds across the region
and SSW gusts 20 to 25 knots. The gusts will subside around
sunset, along with a shift in the wind to the SSE and ESE for
the eastern terminals. Overnight ceilings lower to MVFR and
areas of IFR, have lower confidence in how widespread the IFR
ceilings become. A weak low pressure system brings rain chance
mainly to Nantucket and Cape Cod early Monday morning.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

MVFR and IFR early, becoming VFR late, 15z-18z. A weak cold
front will push through the region late in the day and could
bring a spot shower or thunderstorm, low confidence in this part
of the forecast, opt`d to leave out of the TAF. Wind shifts to
the SSW Monday morning, becoming WSW and then W during the
afternoon with speeds 8-12 knots.

Monday Night...High Confidence.

Cold front clears the coast late night and leads to clearing
skies and VFR conditions. WNW wind 5-10 knots.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Low-end VFR conditions this afternoon, will have ceilings
falling overnight, have moderate confidence in IFR conditions,
but cannot rule out LIFR. Mainly a dry night, but a low pressure
system passing east of the terminal could lead to a spotty
shower during the Monday morning push. Low-end VFR ceilings
Monday with a low chance for a pop-up thunderstorm in the late
afternoon, after 20z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday...High confidence.

Risk for dangerous rip currents is still elevated with the
larger surf in Erin`s wake. Rip current statements will be in
effect today.

Small Craft Advisories in effect for the lingering high seas
will gradually end this weekend, taking longest across the outer
coastal waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-
     019>024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Dooley
MARINE...Mensch